Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History

2018-05-03 · by · in Cycles, Equities, Historical Analysis, SPX, Statistical Analysis

The SPX’s YoY comp went positive for the first time in Oct-09 as the world emerged from the GFC.  That was 103 months ago.

Rounding it down to an even 100 months, as of Apr-17 the index’s YoY had been > 0% in 89% of those trailing 100 months.

Going back to the late 1700s(!) such extreme persistence of bullish trend has but one precedent – the three year period beginning Jan-97 when it crossed 90% before peaking at 95% in late 1999 and early 2000.

Otherwise, nothing else in history comes close.  Not the 1987 or 1929 tops which both peaked at 83%.  Not the 1906 top that preceded the Banker’s Panic which peaked at 73%.  And not the 1871 top that peaked at 82% that led to a five-year, 50% bear market into 1877’s low.

This is an astounding data point.