2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year

2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year

On 8/15/12 I penned a piece that suggested the DJI had a 90%+ (91% to be exact) probability of being higher one year out with a median expected gain of ~15%. The nuts and bolts of that summer-2012 analysis and…...

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Counting Both Up & Down

Counting Both Up & Down

The markets have rallied very nicely as of late.  I could do another mid-cycle pause analog update, but I tend to do a lot of those, and am frankly tired of looking at those charts for the time being. Instead…...

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Analog Update

Analog Update

I’ve been fooled many times by the market this year with respect to my expectation for runaway SPX strength, which, based on the suggestions provided by our mid-cycle pause analog, I thought would be imminently forthcoming post June, yet has…...

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US Equity Analog Update

US Equity Analog Update

I’ve been waiting for the market to inflect lower as the mid-cycle pause analogs have suggested it should start to do, rather than just print sideways as it’s done for the past two weeks, before updating them. With today’s ~100…...

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Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot (to SPX 2,400+ by 2016 Year-End)

Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot (to SPX 2,400+ by 2016 Year-End)

In March of this year in this post I outlined why it appeared increasingly likely that all the insanity that had occurred off the May-15 top for US equities was merely a mid or late-cycle pause, akin to similar one-year holding patterns…...

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Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot

Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot

It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my mid-cycle pause analog framework and a month since I did so in great detail.  It’s time to update our progress. Here’s the SPY since its May-15 peak (black) vs. all of the DJI’s paths…...

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No Good Bulls

No Good Bulls

Below I plot last week’s AAII reading for bulls.  At just 19%, there are among the fewest % of bullish respondents in the survey’s history dating back to the early 90s. Indeed, there have only been 17 other readings this…...

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Assessing the Recent Breadth & Volume Thrusts in U.S. Equities

Assessing the Recent Breadth & Volume Thrusts in U.S. Equities

In the chart below I plot the SPX in the top pane along with NYSE intermediate-term breadth and volume momentum oscillators in middle and lower panes, respectively. In early Mar-16 both of the latter oscillators concurrently generated prints > 200…...

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Analog Update

Analog Update

Here’s an update to our mid-cycle pause into a blow-off rally analog, but with a slight change. In the previous analog we plotted the path taken off the May-15 high and compared it to the paths taken during 1926-1927, 1953-1954…...

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Taking the Extremely Illogical to The Logical Extreme

Taking the Extremely Illogical to The Logical Extreme

In Jan, then in Mar and then twice in Apr of this year (once here and another here) I attempted to build a compelling historical case for the past year of increased VOL-based consolidation in US equities being emblematic of similar pauses in 1926-1927, 1953-1954 and…...

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