Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

It’s been nearly three months since I last updated my big-picture US equity cycle analogs.  Let’s take the time to refresh them now. Here’s our mid-cycle pause analog.  Price continues to track closely to our historical comparisons, albeit below the “average” levels they imply…...

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One-Way

One-Way

Although the nadir for the DJI during the GFC came in Mar-09, the index’s YoY didn’t turn positive until Oct-09. That was 95 months ago. Remarkably, the index’s YoY has been positive in 85 of those ensuing 95 months, or 89%…...

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Cycle Peak Mosaic Building Efforts Continue

Cycle Peak Mosaic Building Efforts Continue

In my last big picture update piece here we talked about the difficulty at this stage of the game of trying to prognosticate when or at what price level this US equity bull cycle will flame out. We have our…...

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Big Picture Update

Big Picture Update

Our highest conviction thematics within our big picture thinking remain the following: US equities: mid-cycle pause framework EU equities: major periphery rally underway, per N225 (2012) and SHCOMP (2014) set-ups EM equities: large cyclical rally underway up to 2007 highs…...

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Accelerated Domestic Equity Upside (2013 Repeat?)

Accelerated Domestic Equity Upside (2013 Repeat?)

I generally try to avoid granular, shorter-term chart analysis, but I’m going to do just that in the one presented below because the analysis comes in the context of corroboratory evidence for a broader framework and thesis. Either way, note that…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

It’s now been over a year since I originally presented the “mid-cycle pause” analog framework in this post.  In addition to crossing the one-year anniversary for introducing this framework, I haven’t had a new post on the topic for two months, so…...

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Overbought?

Overbought?

Hearing a lot about how over-bought US equities are lately. Much of the clamor is related to the relentless sprint higher since 11/8/16 and the election of Trump. However, if one can accept the assumption that the cycle underway is…

2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year

2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year

On 8/15/12 I penned a piece that suggested the DJI had a 90%+ (91% to be exact) probability of being higher one year out with a median expected gain of ~15%. The nuts and bolts of that summer-2012 analysis and…...

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Counting Both Up & Down

Counting Both Up & Down

The markets have rallied very nicely as of late.  I could do another mid-cycle pause analog update, but I tend to do a lot of those, and am frankly tired of looking at those charts for the time being. Instead…...

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Analog Update

Analog Update

I’ve been fooled many times by the market this year with respect to my expectation for runaway SPX strength, which, based on the suggestions provided by our mid-cycle pause analog, I thought would be imminently forthcoming post June, yet has…...

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