Speed & Ferocity of Commodity Decline vs. Stocks Since 2008 is Historic
I’ve recently discussed the speed and ferocity of the relative decline in commodities vs. stocks since the former, via the CRB Index, peaked in 2008 vs. the DJI. At the ratio’s recent low in Jan-18 it had fallen > 81% vs….
Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place
Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely mired in an ongoing secular bear, were nonetheless about…...
Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?
Our mid-cycle pause analog framework has served us exceedingly well for two years since its original construction in this March 2016 post. And while no framework will ever be perfect, its accuracy has nonetheless been exceptional in divining the future over…...
Last Buyable Correction into the Final Run?
I’d like to use this post to analyze the current ~10% correction in US equities in the context of our mid-cycle pause analog. As that framework goes, I’m not entirely surprised the correction is occurring here and now. I’m not…...
Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support
Something on the macro front that’s beginning to get some attention is the US yield curve (2s10s), but I think it’s being discussed and analyzed absent proper context. What’s being emphasized is its collapse over the past year. This is true…...
US Equities’ Historically Extended RSI
As of the week of 12/15/17 the DJI’s weekly RSI logged a print of 85.6 (have chosen DJI instead of SPX because former has more available chart history). It’s continued to print > 85 in each of the ensuing three…...
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update: First Signs of Euphoria?
Since I last updated my big-picture, mid-cycle pause analog framework for assessing US equities in mid-October in this post, optimism about Trump’s tax plan and its ability to successfully sail through Congress has mounted. Tax-related optimism has begun to infect…...
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update
It’s been nearly three months since I last updated my big-picture US equity cycle analogs. Let’s take the time to refresh them now. Here’s our mid-cycle pause analog. Price continues to track closely to our historical comparisons, albeit below the “average” levels they imply…...
One-Way
Although the nadir for the DJI during the GFC came in Mar-09, the index’s YoY didn’t turn positive until Oct-09. That was 95 months ago. Remarkably, the index’s YoY has been positive in 85 of those ensuing 95 months, or 89%…...
Cycle Peak Mosaic Building Efforts Continue
In my last big picture update piece here we talked about the difficulty at this stage of the game of trying to prognosticate when or at what price level this US equity bull cycle will flame out. We have our…...