Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Below the ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is plotted in the top pane and the Nikkei alone in the bottom pane. In the top pane the ratio b/t the Yen and Nikkei has collapsed back down to support line…...

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Y(EN)-TERVENTION Imminent?

Y(EN)-TERVENTION Imminent?

When one thinks about the world’s largest exporters of “widgets”, China and Japan come to mind first. Which, in turn, should lead one to a consideration of the JPYCNY cross. Now, given the CNY peg to USD, the JPYCNY cross…...

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Nikkei Still On Track Despite Summer Mishap?

Nikkei Still On Track Despite Summer Mishap?

I’ve not updated any of our Nikkei framework since 8/10 in this post.  It was in that post where we provided an analog update comparing the Nikkei off its swing high in May-13 onward vs. the DJI off its own…...

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Nikkei Update

Nikkei Update

I wanted to update some of my Nikkei work, specifically the analogs comparing the DJI from Feb-26 through its Aug-29 top to the Nikkei from May-13 until current.  Rather than spend time reviewing the original logic of why it made…...

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USDJPY Testing 35-Year Resistance

USDJPY Testing 35-Year Resistance

Below we have weekly close and monthly HLC views of USDJPY. On each we find lines (1) and (2) resistance.  Line (1) is 35-year resistance for USDJPY dating back to ~1978.  Combined with line (2) which runs to ~200, the…...

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Yen Has Reached Multi-Decade Support

Yen Has Reached Multi-Decade Support

In the monthly chart below the Japanese Yen has reached multi-decade support lines (1) and (2) after breaking down in the past two weeks from the bearish-looking flag/consolidation pattern we had recently highlighted in this post.  Line (2) dates to…...

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Consolidation of Important FX Cross Nearing Conclusion

Consolidation of Important FX Cross Nearing Conclusion

We’ve discussed the prospects for and likelihood of Yen weakness going back to summer 2012  and our general belief here has been a simple one: so long as reflation is and remains the core pillar of Abenomics, so too must the…...

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Japan Update

Japan Update

The BoJ releases its latest monetary policy decision/statement tonight.  There has been recent chatter that the BoJ, or at least a small minority of its members, are growing uneasy about Yen weakness and the pressure that is putting on consumers purchasing…...

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Working Thesis for 2015

Working Thesis for 2015

It’s that time again.  Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year.  If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”.  By…...

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Critical Area for Yen/Nikkei

Critical Area for Yen/Nikkei

I have an ultra long-term monthly Yen chart (inverted) coupled with an equally short-term 60-min Nikkei chart below. The Yen, +/- a point or two, is basically at critical long-term support pointed out just recently.  That support is the combo of l0ng-term lines…...

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