A Look at Historical Secular Bears

A Look at Historical Secular Bears

Consider the very long-term DJI chart below with quarterly price data extending back to the late 19th century. In it you’ll find annotations of the index’s three historical secular bear markets from the early 20th century (1905-1925), off the pre…...

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The Federal Reserve's Epochal Bubble-Creating, Cycle-Breaking Abilities

The Federal Reserve’s Epochal Bubble-Creating, Cycle-Breaking Abilities

The Nasdaq reached a new all-time high in late-2014, surpassing the previous one it put in place in the early 2000s at the height of the tech bubble. This successful reclamation project was quite a feat – in accomplishing it…...

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Semis On Deck

Semis On Deck

Our views on semis have evolved as follows over the past year+: 10/15/12: “…we believe semiconductors have more relative downside left vs. the broader market…” 7/16/13: “…we are ready to make a high conviction industry call on semi-conductors and suggest over-weighting the…...

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Anatomy of a Crash

Anatomy of a Crash

Look at the ramps and subsequent crash set-ups in the Dow (20s), Nikkei (80s) and Nasdaq (00s) and how remarkably similar they are. Seriously, the patterns are near identical. Look at the near uniformity of the initial declines as well…...

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The Conundrum that is Gold (To Bubble or Not to Bubble?)

The Conundrum that is Gold (To Bubble or Not to Bubble?)

Let’s continue to beat a dead horse. Is gold a bubble? If so, did the bubble run end in September 2011 when gold peaked around ~$1,900? We know that thus far, if gold was a bubble and the run ended…...

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Nasdaq is at a 12 Year High, What's it Mean in the Context of History?

Nasdaq is at a 12 Year High, What’s it Mean in the Context of History?

Last week the Nasdaq closed at 3,194. This marked a 12 year high. The index hadn’t notched a 12 year high in 674 weeks, or nearly 13 years. What’s that mean in the context of history? Well, because the Nasdaq…...

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Nasdaq Clearing 12-Year Resistance; Time to Pay Attention to Names/Themes That Worked in the Late 90s Again?

A little over a week ago on September 10th,  before Fed day last Thursday, we noted that it appeared the Nasdaq was finally clearing its 50% Fib retracement level off the 2000/2002 highs/lows, something it hadn’t been able to do for…...

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INTC Sitting On Quarter-Century Support Dating Back to 1986; Ratio of INTC vs. XLK Near All-Time Low

INTC Sitting On Quarter-Century Support Dating Back to 1986; Ratio of INTC vs. XLK Near All-Time Low

The chart below shows that INTC sits at quarter-century support line (2) dating back to 1986 while it is caught in a long-term consolidation pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). At the same time, the ratio of INTC vs. the XLK…

Nasdaq Attemping to Clear Key 12 Year Technical Milestone

Nasdaq Attemping to Clear Key 12 Year Technical Milestone

Last week, as the chart below indicates, the Nasdaq Composite index appears to have finally cleared its 50% Fib retracement level formed between its highs in 2000 and lows in 2002. This is a big deal in our opinion – it’s taken the Nasdaq nearly…