Closing the Loop on Japan & China

Closing the Loop on Japan & China

In the past few days I’ve detailed important inflection points in both Japan & China, at least as I perceived them. The only thing I didn’t do was throw up a ratio chart b/t the two region’s equity markets –…...

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Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

China’s equity market has been dead for the past year and it’s 9 mo hi/lo range now < 12%, about tied for lowest on record with similar prints in Mar-01 and Jul-14. Both of the above dates preceded robust expansions…...

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SSEC Has Another ~20% of Additional Downside and is Likey to Remain in Relative Free-Fall

SSEC Has Another ~20% of Additional Downside and is Likey to Remain in Relative Free-Fall

On the heels of our late Dec-15 post that suggested China’s depression was set to intensify in early 2016, I’ve updated that view via the SSEC plot below. The chart pattern over the past 18 months – base, large run…...

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TED Spreads Lead & The Real Driver Behind The Fed's Decision to Hike Rates

TED Spreads Lead & The Real Driver Behind The Fed’s Decision to Hike Rates

I’ve written a good deal this week about TED spreads blowing out significantly recently. Today I wanted to look at snapshots of the last few times TED spreads have blown out like they are now to see how the equity…...

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CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign

CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign

The relationship b/t the USD and CNH increasingly appears to be the single most important global macro input factor. USD’s relevance has always been well appreciated but the closer I examine it v-a-v CNH, and China in general, the more significant…...

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Chinese Stock Rally Has Outstripped Even Our Lofty Expectations from Summer 2013

Chinese Stock Rally Has Outstripped Even Our Lofty Expectations from Summer 2013

Beginning with this piece from July 2013 in which we juxtaposed our bullish view on the prospects for Chinese equities with Barron’s call for an imminent credit crisis there,  I’d like to believe my work on the region in recent times has…...

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Bond Prices Peaking, Yields Bottoming?

Bond Prices Peaking, Yields Bottoming?

In the chart below you’ll find 30 year US treasury bond prices.  For the past ~30 years those prices have traveled within an upward sloping channel as yields have continuously fallen, b/t lines (1) and (2). The recent plunge in…...

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Major SSEC Top Likely in Place with Potential for Index to Breach 2014 Lows

Major SSEC Top Likely in Place with Potential for Index to Breach 2014 Lows

I think we did a fair amount of solid work on the SSEC going back to 2012 that suggested the index, far from being crash-prone as Barron’s was then suggesting, was much more apt to enjoy some type of strong…...

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Key Breakdowns

Key Breakdowns

I’ve got two simple technical charts below.  One is the SSEC and the other copper, both on a weekly basis. The SSEC is on the cusp of breaking down from major long-term patterns including the flag formed b/t lines (1a)…...

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In the Face of "EM Crisis" Calls, Shenzhen Index to Rally an Additional 20%-35% in 2014

In the Face of “EM Crisis” Calls, Shenzhen Index to Rally an Additional 20%-35% in 2014

Two weeks ago there was a two day period in which, yet again, the world was ending and there was an imminent EM crisis on the horizon.  Apparently, two days of VOL is all it takes to signal the “EM…...

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