Does the Macro Technical Landscape for Equities Include 10%-15% More Upside?
We plot the SPX and Dow in three charts below.
In the weekly SPX chart on the far left, note the massive ascending wedge pattern b/t lines (1) and (2) – line (1) runs to the 1987 top and line (2) off the 2009 lows.
As of right now, the SPX is pressing resistance at the top of that wedge pattern at line (1). Line (1) resistance is formidable given its historical context.
As such, a break above would be very bullish and could launch a nice move higher.
In the daily SPX chart in the middle, note the upward sloping channel the index has traded in over the past five years b/t lines (3) and (4) since 2008.
The logical thing for the index do to if it breaks above line (1) in the left-most chart is to target the top of the channel at line (3) in the middle chart, which would be ~1,700 assuming timing of early 2014 and ~12% higher.
On the monthly Dow chart on the far right note the importance of lines (5) and (6) – the former runs off the 2000 and 2007 tops and the latter off the 1987 highs and 2002 lows. Both run to the low 16K area assuming early 2014 timing, some 15% higher.
Three technical charts, three different time frames, two different indices and all implying the potential for 10%-15% additional upside in domestic equities through year-end…
Assuming the SPX can bust above line (1) resistance.