EM/SPX Decline Since 2010 Peak Among History's Worst Going Back 100 Years

Since its secular peak in Sep-2010, or ~9-yrs ago, the ratio of EM vs. SPX equities has fallen 64%.  This 9-yr RoC is plotted via the red line below.  The dotted black line highlights the worst 9-yr RoC print in…...

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Gold Miner Secular Bull Thesis Update: Major Upside Yet to Come

I haven’t written about gold miners since Mar-2019.  I also haven’t updated a post from Oct-2018 that attempted to frame how a gold miners bull market might look if their low in that period was “structural” in nature. In that…...

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Massive Decline in Commodities vs. U.S. Equities Since 2008 Remains a Key Big-Picture Paradigm

Depending on which index you use – SPX vs. DJI – commodities have fallen ~84%-87% vs. stocks since peaking in 2008, just as west-Texas crude touched ~$150 a barrel. I have discussed this reality repeatedly on the site over the…...

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Making the Cyclical Long Case for Chinese Equities

Quick thought exercise: ownership of what asset is more anathematic than any other at the moment? Chinese equities!  You can’t touch em’ with a 10′ pole.  Can you name a single reason why you or anybody else should own them? This…...

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Generational Semiconductor Bull Market: Potential for a 2X Move in the SOX From Current Levels

In late December 2013 I penned a piece titled “Semis On Deck”.  In fairly detailed manner I explained why I thought semis were about to begin a material and sustained out-performance run vs. the broader market, a thesis I initially roughed out in…...

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Food Retail on the Cusp of a Major, Long-Term Relative Break-Out

Below I plot a long-term chart depicting the ratio of the DJ Food Retail & Wholesale Index vs. SPX on a monthly basis.  You’ll note that with a few weeks left in June, we appear to be staging a major…...

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Semis Clear Key Historical Swing Resistance vs. SPX

After failing here multiple times in 2017-2018, the ratio of the $SOX vs. $SPX has cleared key historical swing resistance vs. the $SPX dating back to the 1990s in recent weeks. Perhaps the ratio is overbought and in need of…...

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Basic Material Depression

Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Basic Materials Index (longer history than SPX Basic Materials Index). Its worst print in 2018 as it lapped the 2008 global commodity high was -63%.  That was the third-worst secular print…...

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Mustang Sally

Below I plot the long-term ratio of F vs. the SPX.  It sits at 70-yr support dating back to late 1957! Support was last touched in late 1981 and was briefly and sharply breached during the 2008-2009 GFC,when many auto…...

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Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom

With a recent piece in Bloomberg highlighting the Nasdaq’s post-4Q18 out-performance resurgence, I thought I’d revisit the topic. Recall that back in Jul-2018 I noted that the Nasdaq’s run of out-performance vs. the SPX was nearing its longest/largest duration/magnitude in history. In retrospect,…...

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