We last updated our thoughts on gold in this post last month. Using analogs in that post we suggested there were ~20 trading days or ~one month until it would reach a nadir, thus concluding a multi-month consolidation that began in…...
In the chart below the ratio of copper vs. gold is about to hit 30-year support. This ratio has been touched only two other times over that 30-year history – once in Apr-87 prior to the Aug-87 equity market peak…
In the chart below I plot JPYUSD over time. It’s pressing 1.00 as we speak. Over the past 30 years it’s spent very little time above 1.00 (green), but plenty below (red). Moreover, 1.00 has acted as a very important…
In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to rally in…...
A month ago we put together a semiconductor-related post that highlighted the likelihood of the group vastly out-performing the broader market. Since then both the SMH ETF and the SOX Index are up ~10% vs. the SPX. Not a bad relative…
In the chart below I plot the ratio of the DJ Tech Index vs. SPX. For 15 years it’s been stuck in a flag/consolidation pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). No more. As of this week it is breaking out…...
I’ve been waiting for the market to inflect lower as the mid-cycle pause analogs have suggested it should start to do, rather than just print sideways as it’s done for the past two weeks, before updating them. With today’s ~100…...
Below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude in the top pane and crude alone in the bottom pane. Over the past ~30 years the ratio b/t the Nikkei and crude has traveled in a downward sloping channel…
In top pane of the chart below we see that EEM has completed a bullish inverse H&S pattern recently; in the bottom pane the ratio of EEM vs. SPX just broke out of a ~five-year, steeply descending channel. Thus, consistent with a…...
The last time we discussed gold on the site was a few weeks back in this post; therein we suggested a break-down in USDZAR was at hand and that should history hold, it would help propel and/or coincide with additional…