Recall my early Sep-18 post on the DXY index as background to this post. Specifically, I want to revisit DXY’s comparison to crude in the 1980s/1990s, first outlined in this chart. Below I have updated the pairing. This time I…...
In this May-18 post I discussed the significant implications – for both equities and bonds – of the bearish pattern that had emerged in the ratio b/t the SPX and 30-yr rates. In my view, that pattern was highly analogous…...
Below I plot the ratio of NYSE margin debt / NYSE equity market cap back to the early 1930s. Data is sourced from GFD. As global equities peaked in Jan/Feb-18 the ratio hit 2.9%, a ~90-yr high not seen since…...
The ratio of gold vs. CNYUSD has coiled up into what appears to be a bullish pattern in the chart below, with numerous bullish RSI deviations even as price has pushed lower over the past 18 months. This means one…...
…this is how we might expect them to trade in their first year per rallies off secular lows in 1932, 1971 and 2000. The black plot is off the 8/18/18 low. Recall that data is FTSE-JSE Gold Miner Index in USD-terms. …...
As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history. The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but when the ratio makes big directional moves, it…...
The Nikkei’s prominent Mar-Nov-12 peak and subsequent corrective/consolidation (A) looks an awful lot like the the recent Jan-18-current version (B), which I compare in the chart below. Via the analog, note the similarities b/t the respective periods’ corrections and consolidations. Also note…...
DXY presented off its Apr-71 and Dec-16 swing highs, but on a daily basis, not weekly as I’ve always shown before. This provides some added granularity. If accurate, the first wave of serious selling begins now and finishes up around…...
Fred Bergsten is an economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington,DC think-tank. He’s a huge proponent, and has been for some time, of the US announcing a policy of countervailing currency intervention (CCI). He…...
I plot the ratio of GFD’s EM Index vs. the SPX across history below. The ratio, including this week’s to-date ~290 bps decline, has us but a few %-points away from reaching 50-yr support This is a noteworthy development. The…...