How Historic Bubbles End

The selling in Bitcoin has been relentless since its 12/17/17 peak.  Moreover, since then, its rallies have been listless and lacking in vigor. It all adds up to a major deviation in the road-map I had envisioned for the asset relative…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
EM Equities: 2007's Secular High In Sight

I last updated our ongoing secular bear market analog framework for EM equities ~four months ago in this  “Macro Round-Up” post, but as a refresher, first introduced it in this Jan-17 post. There were five central conclusions outlined in the original piece: EM began…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
US Equities' Historically Extended RSI

As of the week of 12/15/17 the DJI’s weekly RSI logged a print of 85.6 (have chosen DJI instead of SPX because former has more available chart history).  It’s continued to print > 85 in each of the ensuing three…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Has Bitcoin Stalled Out?

Our last piece on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT) was this post on 11/1/17. Included in it were two major conclusions: A major break-out in/around early Dec-17 was likely, akin to silver in Aug-79, where upside would begin to accelerate That upside had the chance to…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
The Case for Nikkei 40K in 2018

In mid-October I updated my thinking on the Nikkei, asking in this post whether its break above quarter-century resistance meant it was finally “game-on” for the region’s much beleaguered equities after what seemed to be an enduring, generational secular bear…

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update: First Signs of Euphoria?

Since I last updated my big-picture, mid-cycle pause analog framework for assessing US equities in mid-October in this post, optimism about Trump’s tax plan and its ability to successfully sail through Congress has mounted.  Tax-related optimism has begun to infect…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Trust: How Low Can you Go?

Occasionally I venture over to the Pew Research Center and review some of their polling data and related commentary covering a myriad of different issues of concern to US citizens.  Numerous Pew polls go back many decades, making some of…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Textbook Semi Reversal

We’ve written extensively in the past 18 months about the bullish case for owning and over-weighting semiconductor stocks. Our last semi-specific piece was from March of this year.  In it, we noted that the group had experienced a major relative…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Chart Dump

I promised some constituent charts would emanate from the various industries I profiled earlier this week as areas of potential out-performance vs. the broader market. Recall from that post that I ended with the following: “In concluding, telco equipment, electronic…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Relativity Review

Let’s do a review of some industries and their relative positions vs. the broader market (SPX) to see if we can find any interesting set-ups. I have a personal predilection toward these types of reviews as they’re often one of…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register