Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP

I reviewed China in a Dec-16 post, focusing on what at the time seemed┬áto be a building case for out-sized moves in USDCNY and the SHCOMP and largely predicated on how the ratio chart b/t these two items seemed to…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Capitulation Near?

The SPX is now ~300 bps off its all-time high of ~2,400 in early March. The decline so far has been less of a correction, but more along the lines of another pause, similar to the one witnessed in Sep-Oct…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Tracking Regional EU Progress

On 3/28 we noted that Portuguese equities, via the PSI20 Index, had coiled noticeably into what looked to be a bullish pattern that resembled the N225 in late 2012 and SHCOMP in spring/summer 2014 before their ensuing six month and…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Un-Hedged Japan Attempting to Clear Multi-Decade, Secular Bear Resistance

Below we plot EWJ over the past ~20 years of its history. EWJ is the Japan/N-225 tracker but is currency un-hedged unlike DXJ, which hedges FX. ┬áSo, being long EWJ is being long Japanese stocks in JPY-terms. Thus, if EWJ…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Portuguese Equities Coiled

The PSI20 Index is wound very tightly at the moment (noticeable on the bar or close inset), similar to the N225 in 2012 and SHCOMP in 2014 before their respectively large rallies. Sovereign 10 yr yields also at l-t resistance…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Semi Rally Now Faces Relative Resistance

I began advocating semi longs and over-weights beginning in June of last year. Since then and after breaking out from the long-term flag pattern b/t lines (1) and (2), the ratio of the SOX vs. SPX is up ~26%, all…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
CHFUSD Break-out Nearing (Gold Pull-Through?)

CHFUSD (solid) and gold (dash) are plotted on a monthly basis over time below. Few assets correlate more strongly, more consistently or for longer periods of time than these two have for decades. Post 2011 peak for CHFUSD the cross…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Nike & Lebron: Ringing the Bell at the Top

There hasn’t been much good news for NKE shareholders subsequent to the 12/7/15 announcement that it had allegedly signed a life-time sponsorship deal with Lebron James for $1 billion. Indeed, they say nobody rings a bell at the top, but…

Overbought?

Hearing a lot about how over-bought US equities are lately. Much of the clamor is related to the relentless sprint higher since 11/8/16 and the election of Trump. However, if one can accept the assumption that the cycle underway is…

Analog/Cycle Update

The “pause” the market experienced from May-15 until later last year, whereby it traded in a tight sideways range for a little over a year without falling meaningfully, has but three historical precedents going back to the 1800s. Near identical…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register