Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

An analysis of nearly 100 years of history compellingly suggests that transportation equities are in the early stages of a major, secular under-performance bear cycle vs. the broader market. When I say “transportation equities” I’m referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Average…...

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Near-Term Swing High For Bitcoin?

I last wrote about Bitcoin ( Bloomberg: XBT) on 9/16/17 in this post.  Therein we continued our ongoing comparison of the parallels b/t XBT’s cycle since its late 2008 introduction and silver during its halcyon cycle of 1970-1980, a conceptual framework…...

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Japan: Game On?

I think the answer to this post’s title is a resounding ‘yes’. Having said that, I’ve been spilling ink on this site about Japan dating back to 2012 (there are 102 posts in the site’s N225 category), so it’s probably…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

It’s been nearly three months since I last updated my big-picture US equity cycle analogs.  Let’s take the time to refresh them now. Here’s our mid-cycle pause analog.  Price continues to track closely to our historical comparisons, albeit below the “average” levels they imply…...

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Chart Dump

Let’s start with a top-down view by looking at the R2K. Yesterday’s tax plan-fueled rally in the major indices helped launch it significantly higher.  In the process, the index managed to smash through multiple years of upside resistance.  This resistance…...

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What is Bitcoin Discounting?

On 2/24/17 I presented the site’s first post on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT).  In it, I compared silver’s set-up over the 1971-1980 period to XBT’s since 2010.  In concluding I suggested the chart-based similarities of the two assets made XBT well-positioned to enjoy…...

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Macro Round-Up

Let’s start with FX as it’s ultimately the most important driver when it comes to major inflection points and cycles in global macro. Here, as I noted in early August, the USD (via the DXY Index) continues to appear as if…...

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One-Way

Although the nadir for the DJI during the GFC came in Mar-09, the index’s YoY didn’t turn positive until Oct-09. That was 95 months ago. Remarkably, the index’s YoY has been positive in 85 of those ensuing 95 months, or 89%…...

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Retailers: Finally Oversold?

The ratio of the DJ Apparel Retailer Index vs. SPX has declined 39% off its 2015 highs as of last week. In doing so the ratio has fallen to historical trend-line support formed off other major pivot lows from 1997,…...

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Large AUDNZD Rally to Occur

This is a random FX post – which I don’t do often – but I think it’s high probability and big enough in its potential P&L impact that it’s worth posting. Below, note the AUDNZD pair is testing a break-out…...

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