Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely mired in an ongoing secular bear, were nonetheless about…...

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Commodity Secular Bears: A Century's Worth of Historical Perspective

It’s Apr-18.  That means we’re at the 7-yr anniversary of the global commodity super-cycle peak of 2011.  This offers a neat and convenient time-based milestone upon which to assess the unrelenting carnage in the group since that peak and how it…...

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Growing Dossier of Bullish Silver Analytics

In recent weeks I’ve begun to note the historically tight hi/lo price ranges within the PM complex, first noting both gold and silver’s compressed 48-mo ranges here, and then silver’s 12 mo range here. Historically speaking, such compression has been indicative…...

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Oilfield Services Attractive on Numerous Relative Fronts

One could spend a few hours cycling through charts of various US equity industries, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the SPX, and find very little to get excited about. They simply all look the same – nearly…...

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Tightest One-Year Hi-Lo Range in Silver on Record

Using monthly prices, the spread b/t silver’s hi/lo price over the past 12 months now stands at ~7.3%. That’s the tightest (smallest) spread in history dating back to the post-Bretton Woods era that began in 1971 when Nixon abandoned the…...

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VIX Aiming for Fourth Consecutive Monthly Gain

Though Apr-18 is yet young, VIX is up 9% month-to-date vs. its Mar-18 close of ~20. An up Apr-18 would be VIX’s fourth consecutive monthly gain.  At its current 21.77, the cumulative gain across that period would be +97% vs. the…...

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Pinpointing a Bottom in Bitcoin

With my oft-repeated suggestion that XBT will reach $1 million in 2018 looking more comical by the day, I thought it appropriate to revisit the asset with a focus not on trying to predict upside, but on attempting to pinpoint a near-term…...

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GE Approaching 50-Yr Relative Support

In the chart below the ratio of GE vs. the SPX is approaching 50-yr support dating back to 1970. Historically, this support has helped launch major relative rallies in the stock vs. the broader market. On its own, GE is…...

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PM VOL Compression

Below I plot gold and the spread b/t its 48 month high-low price range, which now stands at < 22%. Note that historically such a low spread is quite uncommon. In fact, there are only three other environments  in which…...

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Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?

Our mid-cycle pause analog framework has served us exceedingly well for two years since its original construction in this March 2016 post.  And while no framework will ever be perfect, its accuracy has nonetheless been exceptional in divining the future over…...

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