Ratio of Copper vs. Gold at 30-Yr Support, Last Reached Pre-Crash Apr-87, During GFC Jan-09

In the chart below the ratio of copper vs. gold is about to hit 30-year support. This ratio has been touched only two other times over that 30-year history – once in Apr-87 prior to the Aug-87 equity market peak…

JPYUSD, If/When > 1.00, Should Ignite New Upside Phase for Gold

In the chart below I plot JPYUSD over time. It’s pressing 1.00 as we speak. Over the past 30 years it’s spent very little time above 1.00 (green), but plenty below (red).  Moreover, 1.00 has acted as a very important…

Gold Update

In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to rally in…...

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Press Long Semi Bets

A month ago we put together a semiconductor-related post that highlighted the likelihood of the group vastly out-performing the broader market. Since then both the SMH ETF and the SOX Index are up ~10% vs. the SPX.  Not a bad relative…

Similar to Semis, Tech In General Now Staging a Significant Long-Term Relative Strength Break-Out

In the chart below I plot the ratio of the DJ Tech Index vs. SPX. For 15 years it’s been stuck in a flag/consolidation pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). No more. As of this week it is breaking out…...

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US Equity Analog Update

I’ve been waiting for the market to inflect lower as the mid-cycle pause analogs have suggested it should start to do, rather than just print sideways as it’s done for the past two weeks, before updating them. With today’s ~100…...

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Crude Should Begin to Stabilize

Below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude in the top pane and crude alone in the bottom pane. Over the past ~30 years the ratio b/t the Nikkei and crude has traveled in a downward sloping channel…

EM Relativity & The Potential for Improved Chinese GDP Growth

In top pane of the chart below we see that EEM has completed a bullish inverse H&S pattern recently; in the bottom pane the ratio of EEM vs. SPX just broke out of a ~five-year, steeply descending channel. Thus, consistent with a…...

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Gold Now in a Sustained, Structural Bull Market; On Average, History Suggests ~175% Incremental Upside

The last time we discussed gold on the site was a few weeks back in this post; therein we suggested a break-down in USDZAR was at hand and that should history hold, it would help propel and/or coincide with additional…

Break-Out in TED Spread Implies further CNY Depreciation, ECB Balance Sheet Expansion and EU Financials Weakness

Dating back to the beginning of the GFC the TED spread – what amounts to cross-border, inter-bank borrowing/lending rates vs. risk free t-bills – has been an excellent proxy for rising financial system contagion and counter-party aversion, which, ultimately has manifested itself in…...

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