In July of last year I noted in this post that the SPX Total Return Index had posted a 9th consecutive annual gain in 2017 for only the fifth time in nearly 200 years of data. I emphasized that a…...
In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Bovespa Total Return Index (IBOV) vs. the SPX Total Return Index. The ratio appears to be staging a clean, noteworthy break above falling resistance that’s been in place since…...
For some time I’ve maintained the view that since peaking in 2007, EM equities have been in a secular bear akin to the two witnessed on the DJI from 1906-1925 and 1966-1985. That said, as secular bears go, such cycles…...
Below I plot the ratio of the SPX high-beta index vs. its low-beta cousin. Note the ratio is reaching decade-long support that works off the major 2009 GFC low and early 2016 global commodity/equity low that pivoted risk assets higher…...
Below I plot the 7-yr RoC in corn. At its worst point in Aug-18 it printed -54%, a touch above the two worst readings in history including Aug-87 and Jun-03, both at -56%. After the bombed out 1987 and 2003…
Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history. Today, I switch gears and show ratios of major global composites vs. the SPX, mostly non-US ones. This will help spell out where…...
Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history. Posts will be grouped by sector, and each sector post will show all the relative sub-industries within it. I’ve generally tried to only…...
Over the past year I’ve spent much time on this site detailing the bullish/bearish case for gold miners and the USD. The axis of this thesis spins on the idea that 2018 is analogous to the early 1930s and 1970s,…...
Below, note that the SPX has been flirting with cycle trend-line support off the 2009 lows for the past few weeks at inset (1). With yesterday’s massive reversal off the Trump-Xi “truce” spike on Monday, we have now definitively broken…...
Throughout 2018 I’ve covered the historically fast and deep decline in commodities vs. stocks over the decade that has ensued since the former peaked in 2008. See here and here as background. I wanted to revisit the topic again just…...