Instanbul 100 Index Has Reached 30-Yr Support in USD Terms

Below I plot Turkey’s Istanbull 100 Index in USD terms. Driven by the recent collapse in the TRY, the index has reached 30-yr support dating back to the mid-1980s. However, should this support break in what would likely be driven…...

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Gold/Silver Ratio Very Close to Clearing Nearly 30 Years of Down-Trend Resistance

In the chart below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver on a monthly basis, a thematic I highlighted in this recent post. Since the ratio peaked in 1991 it’s secular impulse has been one of incessant weakness-to-sideways action amid…...

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Relative Performance of EM vs. US Equities Nearing a Critical Juncture

Below a simple chart: the ratio of the MSCI EM Index vs. SPX. In it you can see the ratio nearing a critical, 20-yr support line last reached in Sep-01 at a major corrective low (specifically the post 9/11 low)…...

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Uranium Prices Clearing Decade-Long Resistance

Confirming my suspicions in a 6/10/18 post outlining a bullish case for uranium, in the left pane below the commodity is actively clearing decade-long falling resistance this month. At the same time, the Trump admin has opened an official investigation…...

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History Being Made Everywhere: Ratio of Gold Miners vs. Gold Breaking Below 80-Yr Support Shelf

Another crazy chart/data point below that’s consistent with much of the other mind-melting (i.e., 200-yr-type historical anomalies) stuff I’ve been putting on the site lately… The ratio of gold miners as an industry vs. gold itself has broken below an…

JGB Yields Breaking Out of Massive Multi-Century Descending Wedge Pattern

Laugh all you want about the merits of multi-century technical analysis (patterns are patterns), and below I attempt just that on 10-yr JGB yields, which are breaking out of a massive descending wedge pattern dating back to the late 1800s…...

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Multiple Centuries of US 10-Yr Bond Prices Highlight the Beginning of a New Secular Bear Market

Below I plot the US 10-yr bond price going back multiple centuries, well into the 1800s. Note that over the past few years it’s been battling 100+ yr resistance line (1) and that this resistance has marked the beginning of…...

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Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s

In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad.  Further, a similar pattern formed in the ~1915-1930 time period, with a…...

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SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

2017 marked the SPX Total Return Index’s 9th consecutive annual gain. Absent a strange aberration in the early 1800s where gains continued to get posted (I say aberration because actual price appreciation during this nine year stretch was virtually 0%…...

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Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002.  Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...

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