EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

Emerging markets, via MXEF (MSCI EM Index), peaked in Oct-07 at ~1,300.  Today, some ~480 weeks and over nine years later, it stands at ~887, or 32% below its Oct-07 high.  Throughout the entirety of that elapsed time period MXEF…...

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What More Would You Need?

What more would it take on the chart below for you to believe the belief that the risk/reward on CMG was skewed in your favor over the l-t? Good, l-t business that will presumably not only be around in 10,…...

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European Equities Can Continue to Run, Out-Perform

In the chart below I plot the Stoxx600 over time. As of now the YoY has surged to ~+7% after spending the entirety of the past year in negative territory. If you follow the horizontal red line back through history…...

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See What Sticks

I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start.  When discussed…...

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Counting Both Up & Down

The markets have rallied very nicely as of late.  I could do another mid-cycle pause analog update, but I tend to do a lot of those, and am frankly tired of looking at those charts for the time being. Instead…...

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Closing the Loop on Japan & China

In the past few days I’ve detailed important inflection points in both Japan & China, at least as I perceived them. The only thing I didn’t do was throw up a ratio chart b/t the two region’s equity markets –…...

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Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Below I plot the ratio of the PCAC Index (Producer Price Index – All Commodities) vs. the USD Index (DXY) over time along with a ~43-year support line dating back to 1973. While not at support, the ratio is very…...

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Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

China’s equity market has been dead for the past year and it’s 9 mo hi/lo range now < 12%, about tied for lowest on record with similar prints in Mar-01 and Jul-14. Both of the above dates preceded robust expansions…...

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Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Below the ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is plotted in the top pane and the Nikkei alone in the bottom pane. In the top pane the ratio b/t the Yen and Nikkei has collapsed back down to support line…...

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Europe/US Relative Strength at 30-Year Channel Support

As broken as the EU is, the ratio of the STOXX 600 vs. SPX now sits at 30-year channel support (panel 1), with the last six months of under-performance ostensibly driven by crack-up fears (BREXIT, Italy, etc.). Also note that…...

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