Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment

Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment

Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Oil Equipment & Services Index along with the index itself.  A decade is a logical period for look-back analysis and doubles as the anniversary of crude’s 2008 all-time high print of ~$145.  I’ve…...

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Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...

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Crude: 1980-1990...2008-2018

Crude: 1980-1990…2008-2018

Recall this mid-May post on the relationship b/t crude and gold.  Therein, I also spoke about crude on its own, as follows: “What’s also interesting about crude since 2008 is how closely its cycle resembles the period from 1980-summer-1987.” I presented…...

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China Nears 25-Yr Relative Support vs. SPX as R2K Ascends to 30-Yr Channel Resistance

China Nears 25-Yr Relative Support vs. SPX as R2K Ascends to 30-Yr Channel Resistance

Below the ratio of the SSEC vs. SPX is nearing a 25-yr support line. That line sits at ~1.00 vs. the ratio’s current print of ~1.05.  So, a few % lower. Knowing China, there will probably be some theatrics involved…...

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Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds

Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds

“They have no choice, they’re either going to make the trades fair…and if it’s not fixed we’re not going to deal with these countries.” – President Trump at G7 Those sound like fightin’ words to me and they were largely directed…...

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Speed & Ferocity of Commodity Decline vs. Stocks Since 2008 is Historic

Speed & Ferocity of Commodity Decline vs. Stocks Since 2008 is Historic

I’ve recently discussed the speed and ferocity of the relative decline in commodities vs. stocks since the former, via the CRB Index, peaked in 2008 vs. the DJI. At the ratio’s recent low in Jan-18 it had fallen > 81% vs….

Crude-Gold Relationship at an Important Juncture

Crude-Gold Relationship at an Important Juncture

In early 2016 amid the global commodity/EM crash the ratio of crude oil vs. gold reached a historic, ~135-yr low, per the chart below. However, per the falling resistance in the monthly chart above, as well as the more detailed…

Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History

Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History

Below I plot the 2-yr RoC in the ratio of SPX Consumer Staples vs. the SPX itself dating back to the 1920s. The current –29% is essentially the second-worst print in history, tied with the 1929-1930 period preceding and in…...

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Long Rates, Short Equities?

Long Rates, Short Equities?

One of the worst patterns one can ever find is the kind seen on the USD in the late 90s… Three distinct pushes higher over the course of a few years with declining RSI into a H&S type of top…...

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Commodity Secular Bears: A Century's Worth of Historical Perspective

Commodity Secular Bears: A Century’s Worth of Historical Perspective

It’s Apr-18.  That means we’re at the 7-yr anniversary of the global commodity super-cycle peak of 2011.  This offers a neat and convenient time-based milestone upon which to assess the unrelenting carnage in the group since that peak and how it…...

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