Generational Semiconductor Bull Market: Potential for a 2X Move in the SOX From Current Levels

Generational Semiconductor Bull Market: Potential for a 2X Move in the SOX From Current Levels

In late December 2013 I penned a piece titled “Semis On Deck”.  In fairly detailed manner I explained why I thought semis were about to begin a material and sustained out-performance run vs. the broader market, a thesis I initially roughed out in…...

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Food Retail on the Cusp of a Major, Long-Term Relative Break-Out

Food Retail on the Cusp of a Major, Long-Term Relative Break-Out

Below I plot a long-term chart depicting the ratio of the DJ Food Retail & Wholesale Index vs. SPX on a monthly basis.  You’ll note that with a few weeks left in June, we appear to be staging a major…...

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Semis Clear Key Historical Swing Resistance vs. SPX

Semis Clear Key Historical Swing Resistance vs. SPX

After failing here multiple times in 2017-2018, the ratio of the $SOX vs. $SPX has cleared key historical swing resistance vs. the $SPX dating back to the 1990s in recent weeks. Perhaps the ratio is overbought and in need of…...

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Basic Material Depression

Basic Material Depression

Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Basic Materials Index (longer history than SPX Basic Materials Index). Its worst print in 2018 as it lapped the 2008 global commodity high was -63%.  That was the third-worst secular print…...

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Mustang Sally

Mustang Sally

Below I plot the long-term ratio of F vs. the SPX.  It sits at 70-yr support dating back to late 1957! Support was last touched in late 1981 and was briefly and sharply breached during the 2008-2009 GFC,when many auto…...

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Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom

Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom

With a recent piece in Bloomberg highlighting the Nasdaq’s post-4Q18 out-performance resurgence, I thought I’d revisit the topic. Recall that back in Jul-2018 I noted that the Nasdaq’s run of out-performance vs. the SPX was nearing its longest/largest duration/magnitude in history. In retrospect,…...

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Platinum Currently Sits Atop Nearly 50 Years of Support

Platinum Currently Sits Atop Nearly 50 Years of Support

Below we find that platinum (futures) sits atop support dating back to the early 1970s, or when Nixon abandoned the gold standard.  That’s nearly 50 years of support. The last time this support was reached in the late 1990s. Thus, on…...

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17 Years of Biotech Outperforming Pharma Coming to an End?

17 Years of Biotech Outperforming Pharma Coming to an End?

Below I plot a simple chart – the ratio of the PPH pharma ETF vs. the IBB biotech ETF. After multiple failed break-outs over the past nearly two decades, you’ll see the ratio breaking above 17-yr downtrend resistance line (1)…

Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support

Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support

Below, the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index sits atop nearly 85-yr support dating back to the early 1930s, specifically 1933. Even more specifically, the support begins in Apr-May-1933.  This is what happened in Apr-May-1933.  Support was last touched in late…...

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Global Macro Round-Up

Global Macro Round-Up

FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue.  USDCNY is currently testing…...

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