EM/SPX Decline Since 2010 Peak Among History’s Worst Going Back 100 Years
Since its secular peak in Sep-2010, or ~9-yrs ago, the ratio of EM vs. SPX equities has fallen 64%. This 9-yr RoC is plotted via the red line below. The dotted black line highlights the worst 9-yr RoC print in…...
Massive Decline in Commodities vs. U.S. Equities Since 2008 Remains a Key Big-Picture Paradigm
Depending on which index you use – SPX vs. DJI – commodities have fallen ~84%-87% vs. stocks since peaking in 2008, just as west-Texas crude touched ~$150 a barrel. I have discussed this reality repeatedly on the site over the…...
Generational Semiconductor Bull Market: Potential for a 2X Move in the SOX From Current Levels
In late December 2013 I penned a piece titled “Semis On Deck”. In fairly detailed manner I explained why I thought semis were about to begin a material and sustained out-performance run vs. the broader market, a thesis I initially roughed out in…...
Food Retail on the Cusp of a Major, Long-Term Relative Break-Out
Below I plot a long-term chart depicting the ratio of the DJ Food Retail & Wholesale Index vs. SPX on a monthly basis. You’ll note that with a few weeks left in June, we appear to be staging a major…...
Semis Clear Key Historical Swing Resistance vs. SPX
After failing here multiple times in 2017-2018, the ratio of the $SOX vs. $SPX has cleared key historical swing resistance vs. the $SPX dating back to the 1990s in recent weeks. Perhaps the ratio is overbought and in need of…...
Basic Material Depression
Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Basic Materials Index (longer history than SPX Basic Materials Index). Its worst print in 2018 as it lapped the 2008 global commodity high was -63%. That was the third-worst secular print…...
Mustang Sally
Below I plot the long-term ratio of F vs. the SPX. It sits at 70-yr support dating back to late 1957! Support was last touched in late 1981 and was briefly and sharply breached during the 2008-2009 GFC,when many auto…...
Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom
With a recent piece in Bloomberg highlighting the Nasdaq’s post-4Q18 out-performance resurgence, I thought I’d revisit the topic. Recall that back in Jul-2018 I noted that the Nasdaq’s run of out-performance vs. the SPX was nearing its longest/largest duration/magnitude in history. In retrospect,…...
Platinum Currently Sits Atop Nearly 50 Years of Support
Below we find that platinum (futures) sits atop support dating back to the early 1970s, or when Nixon abandoned the gold standard. That’s nearly 50 years of support. The last time this support was reached in the late 1990s. Thus, on…...
17 Years of Biotech Outperforming Pharma Coming to an End?
Below I plot a simple chart – the ratio of the PPH pharma ETF vs. the IBB biotech ETF. After multiple failed break-outs over the past nearly two decades, you’ll see the ratio breaking above 17-yr downtrend resistance line (1)…