Hand-in-Glove

Hand-in-Glove

As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history.  The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but when the ratio makes big directional moves, it…...

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Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?

Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?

The Nikkei’s prominent Mar-Nov-12 peak and subsequent corrective/consolidation (A) looks an awful lot like the the recent Jan-18-current version (B), which I compare in the chart below. Via the analog, note the similarities b/t the respective periods’ corrections and consolidations.  Also note…...

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EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support

EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support

I plot the ratio of GFD’s EM Index vs. the SPX across history below. The ratio, including this week’s to-date ~290 bps decline, has us but a few %-points away from reaching 50-yr support This is a noteworthy development. The…...

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Gold/Silver Ratio - Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver.  August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing.  It shows that the bear cycle…...

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Telco Equipment Industry Looks Very Bullish

Telco Equipment Industry Looks Very Bullish

Below I plot the S&P Telco Equipment Index back to 1980. Notice price has spent much of 2018 consolidating atop the key pivot congestion areas from 1997 (launched the parabolic run into 2000) and 2001 (launched the collapse into 2002…...

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Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...

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Instanbul 100 Index Has Reached 30-Yr Support in USD Terms

Instanbul 100 Index Has Reached 30-Yr Support in USD Terms

Below I plot Turkey’s Istanbull 100 Index in USD terms. Driven by the recent collapse in the TRY, the index has reached 30-yr support dating back to the mid-1980s. However, should this support break in what would likely be driven…...

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Relative Performance of EM vs. US Equities Nearing a Critical Juncture

Relative Performance of EM vs. US Equities Nearing a Critical Juncture

Below a simple chart: the ratio of the MSCI EM Index vs. SPX. In it you can see the ratio nearing a critical, 20-yr support line last reached in Sep-01 at a major corrective low (specifically the post 9/11 low)…...

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SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

2017 marked the SPX Total Return Index’s 9th consecutive annual gain. Absent a strange aberration in the early 1800s where gains continued to get posted (I say aberration because actual price appreciation during this nine year stretch was virtually 0%…...

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Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002.  Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...

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