LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Staples SECTOR

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Staples SECTOR

Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history.  Posts will be grouped by sector, and each sector post will show all the relative sub-industries within it.  I’ve generally tried…...

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Long-Term Relative Ratio Charts - Consumer Sector

Long-Term Relative Ratio Charts – Consumer Sector

Beginning with this post I aim to show the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history.  Posts will be grouped by sector, and each sector post will show all the relative sub-industries within…...

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Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

It’s been 117 months since the Dow bottomed on a monthly closing basis in March 2009 at ~7K.  Since then it’s rallied ~260%. There are essentially only four precedents for this magnitude of rally over a trailing 117 month period…...

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Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes

Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes

As of month-end Sep-18, the USD (via DXY) had appreciated 21% over the trailing seven years while the ratio of EM equities vs. the SPX had declined 54% (seven years ago is where USD bottoms, commodities and EM/SPX generally peak).  This…...

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USD-Deval Thesis Rounding into View

USD-Deval Thesis Rounding into View

Recall my early Sep-18 post on the DXY index as background to this post. Specifically, I want to revisit DXY’s comparison to crude in the 1980s/1990s, first outlined in this chart. Below I have updated the pairing.  This time I…...

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Where's Waldo?

Where’s Waldo?

In this May-18 post I discussed the significant implications – for both equities and bonds – of the bearish pattern that had emerged in the ratio b/t the SPX and 30-yr rates. In my view, that pattern was highly analogous…...

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Hand-in-Glove

Hand-in-Glove

As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history.  The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but when the ratio makes big directional moves, it…...

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Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?

Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?

The Nikkei’s prominent Mar-Nov-12 peak and subsequent corrective/consolidation (A) looks an awful lot like the the recent Jan-18-current version (B), which I compare in the chart below. Via the analog, note the similarities b/t the respective periods’ corrections and consolidations.  Also note…...

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EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support

EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support

I plot the ratio of GFD’s EM Index vs. the SPX across history below. The ratio, including this week’s to-date ~290 bps decline, has us but a few %-points away from reaching 50-yr support This is a noteworthy development. The…...

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Gold/Silver Ratio - Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver.  August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing.  It shows that the bear cycle…...

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