SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

2017 marked the SPX Total Return Index’s 9th consecutive annual gain. Absent a strange aberration in the early 1800s where gains continued to get posted (I say aberration because price data doesn’t seem to confirm it; thus, some type of…...

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Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002.  Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...

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Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...

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Final Preparations and Focus for Nikkei Rally to 40K

Final Preparations and Focus for Nikkei Rally to 40K

As I recently did with my silver work, today we focus on the tactical aspects of our broader, more strategic call for the Nikkei to hit 40K this or next year, first outlined here and then here. Put simply, I believe…...

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China Nears 25-Yr Relative Support vs. SPX as R2K Ascends to 30-Yr Channel Resistance

China Nears 25-Yr Relative Support vs. SPX as R2K Ascends to 30-Yr Channel Resistance

Below the ratio of the SSEC vs. SPX is nearing a 25-yr support line. That line sits at ~1.00 vs. the ratio’s current print of ~1.05.  So, a few % lower. Knowing China, there will probably be some theatrics involved…...

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Set-Up for Uranium Looks Bullish

Set-Up for Uranium Looks Bullish

Few realize it, but the US uranium industry filed a Section 232 petition with the US Department of Commerce (DoC) in Jan-18 seeking relief from the harmful consequences of uranium imports, almost all of which come from state-owned, sponsored or…...

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Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds

Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds

“They have no choice, they’re either going to make the trades fair…and if it’s not fixed we’re not going to deal with these countries.” – President Trump at G7 Those sound like fightin’ words to me and they were largely directed…...

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Excellent Place to Lay Down Longs for a Trip to 30K?

Excellent Place to Lay Down Longs for a Trip to 30K?

In the context of this week’s cycle-based work here and here, consider the following more granular and technical aspects of how the thesis presented therein (DJI –> ~30K –> Aug/Sep-18) could unfold. Specifically, note that the market’s Nov-17 parabolic blow-off happened to occur as…...

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US Equity Cycles: One Chart to Rule them All?

US Equity Cycles: One Chart to Rule them All?

Below I update a ~120-yr chart of the DJI with its associated linear regression plot and two standard deviation channels first revealed in this post in Jul-17. Red = extreme over-valuation and secular sells; light red = over-valuation; light green = under-valuation; green…...

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Winter is Coming

Winter is Coming

Having failed to put a new and final lower low in place in late May as I had expected, the DJI appears to have broken out of its falling resistance this week, potentially – and finally – fulfilling the end…...

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