Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

It’s been nearly three months since I last updated my big-picture US equity cycle analogs.  Let’s take the time to refresh them now. Here’s our mid-cycle pause analog.  Price continues to track closely to our historical comparisons, albeit below the “average” levels they imply…...

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Chart Dump

Chart Dump

Let’s start with a top-down view by looking at the R2K. Yesterday’s tax plan-fueled rally in the major indices helped launch it significantly higher.  In the process, the index managed to smash through multiple years of upside resistance.  This resistance…...

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One-Way

One-Way

Although the nadir for the DJI during the GFC came in Mar-09, the index’s YoY didn’t turn positive until Oct-09. That was 95 months ago. Remarkably, the index’s YoY has been positive in 85 of those ensuing 95 months, or 89%…...

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Retailers: Finally Oversold?

Retailers: Finally Oversold?

The ratio of the DJ Apparel Retailer Index vs. SPX has declined 39% off its 2015 highs as of last week. In doing so the ratio has fallen to historical trend-line support formed off other major pivot lows from 1997,…...

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Cycle Peak Mosaic Building Efforts Continue

Cycle Peak Mosaic Building Efforts Continue

In my last big picture update piece here we talked about the difficulty at this stage of the game of trying to prognosticate when or at what price level this US equity bull cycle will flame out. We have our…...

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Big Picture Update

Big Picture Update

Our highest conviction thematics within our big picture thinking remain the following: US equities: mid-cycle pause framework EU equities: major periphery rally underway, per N225 (2012) and SHCOMP (2014) set-ups EM equities: large cyclical rally underway up to 2007 highs…...

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Despite the Massive Rally Since 2012 Is the Airline Secular Bear Just Now Ending?

Despite the Massive Rally Since 2012 Is the Airline Secular Bear Just Now Ending?

Per the break above line (1) in the chart below, airlines as a group (via the SPX Airlines Index) have now cleared a 26-year resistance line dating back to the early 1990s. We highlighted this developing set-up in early June…...

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Is Peripheral Europe's Permafrost Finally Thawing?

Is Peripheral Europe’s Permafrost Finally Thawing?

One of the better analytical pieces and frameworks published on this site since 2012 was this piece from 7/2/2013 that questioned the timeliness of Barron’s renewed calls for a Chinese credit crisis by pointing out that since the SHCOMP had…...

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Chart Dump

Chart Dump

Haven’t done one of these posts in quite some time.  However, I’m back to including my old charting software in my analytical process, so posts such as these become a little easier as that software allows me to group numerous…...

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Exiting the Tarmac, In Que on the Runway

Exiting the Tarmac, In Que on the Runway

Not to victory-lap this too much, but I think I managed to call the end of the airline secular bear and its likely transition into a secular bull well before nearly anybody else did publicly and certainly before it was a…...

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