Textbook Semi Reversal

Textbook Semi Reversal

We’ve written extensively in the past 18 months about the bullish case for owning and over-weighting semiconductor stocks. Our last semi-specific piece was from March of this year.  In it, we noted that the group had experienced a major relative…...

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Chart Dump

Chart Dump

I promised some constituent charts would emanate from the various industries I profiled earlier this week as areas of potential out-performance vs. the broader market. Recall from that post that I ended with the following: “In concluding, telco equipment, electronic…...

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Relativity Review

Relativity Review

Let’s do a review of some industries and their relative positions vs. the broader market (SPX) to see if we can find any interesting set-ups. I have a personal predilection toward these types of reviews as they’re often one of…...

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WMT's Relative Break-Out vs. the SPX

WMT’s Relative Break-Out vs. the SPX

I’ve put up two bullish pieces on WMT over the past two years, the first here in Nov-15 and the next here in Jan-16. The first piece noted that WMT was: At l-t support as its YoY was very oversold…...

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Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

An analysis of nearly 100 years of history compellingly suggests that transportation equities are in the early stages of a major, secular under-performance bear cycle vs. the broader market. When I say “transportation equities” I’m referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Average…...

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Japan: Game On?

Japan: Game On?

I think the answer to this post’s title is a resounding ‘yes’. Having said that, I’ve been spilling ink on this site about Japan dating back to 2012 (there are 102 posts in the site’s N225 category), so it’s probably…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

It’s been nearly three months since I last updated my big-picture US equity cycle analogs.  Let’s take the time to refresh them now. Here’s our mid-cycle pause analog.  Price continues to track closely to our historical comparisons, albeit below the “average” levels they imply…...

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Chart Dump

Chart Dump

Let’s start with a top-down view by looking at the R2K. Yesterday’s tax plan-fueled rally in the major indices helped launch it significantly higher.  In the process, the index managed to smash through multiple years of upside resistance.  This resistance…...

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One-Way

One-Way

Although the nadir for the DJI during the GFC came in Mar-09, the index’s YoY didn’t turn positive until Oct-09. That was 95 months ago. Remarkably, the index’s YoY has been positive in 85 of those ensuing 95 months, or 89%…...

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Retailers: Finally Oversold?

Retailers: Finally Oversold?

The ratio of the DJ Apparel Retailer Index vs. SPX has declined 39% off its 2015 highs as of last week. In doing so the ratio has fallen to historical trend-line support formed off other major pivot lows from 1997,…...

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