Japan Chart Dump

Japan Chart Dump

I continue to believe, as crazy as it sounds, that the Nikkei might round-trip its 30-yr decline from 40K in 1989 by getting back to that level either this or next year. I’ve outlined the case for this scenario two…

Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely

Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely

In late Dec-17 I outlined a case for the Nikkei reaching 40K during 2018 in this post. As ridiculous as that sounded at the time, I thought the analytical justification was sound.  Generally, the Nikkei’s path from 1989-Dec-17 was highly analogous…...

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Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History

Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History

The SPX’s YoY comp went positive for the first time in Oct-09 as the world emerged from the GFC.  That was 103 months ago. Rounding it down to an even 100 months, as of Apr-17 the index’s YoY had been…

Additional Evidence Suggesting a Historic Top in Place for Defense Stocks

Additional Evidence Suggesting a Historic Top in Place for Defense Stocks

In March I began making the case that defense stocks were in the process of putting an important top in place, which you can read about here. However, at that time I don’t think I fully appreciated the exact nature…...

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Chart Dump

Chart Dump

Lots to look at here.  I’m by no means advocating positions in all of these, I just find the charts interesting.  That said, there are many I would want to own.  Some are far more speculative and less liquid than…

Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely mired in an ongoing secular bear, were nonetheless about…...

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Oilfield Services Attractive on Numerous Relative Fronts

Oilfield Services Attractive on Numerous Relative Fronts

One could spend a few hours cycling through charts of various US equity industries, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the SPX, and find very little to get excited about. They simply all look the same – nearly…...

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VIX Aiming for Fourth Consecutive Monthly Gain

VIX Aiming for Fourth Consecutive Monthly Gain

Though Apr-18 is yet young, VIX is up 9% month-to-date vs. its Mar-18 close of ~20. An up Apr-18 would be VIX’s fourth consecutive monthly gain.  At its current 21.77, the cumulative gain across that period would be +97% vs. the…...

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GE Approaching 50-Yr Relative Support

GE Approaching 50-Yr Relative Support

In the chart below the ratio of GE vs. the SPX is approaching 50-yr support dating back to 1970. Historically, this support has helped launch major relative rallies in the stock vs. the broader market. On its own, GE is…...

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Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?

Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?

Our mid-cycle pause analog framework has served us exceedingly well for two years since its original construction in this March 2016 post.  And while no framework will ever be perfect, its accuracy has nonetheless been exceptional in divining the future over…...

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