SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

2017 marked the SPX Total Return Index’s 9th consecutive annual gain. Absent a strange aberration in the early 1800s where gains continued to get posted (I say aberration because price data doesn’t seem to confirm it; thus, some type of…...

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Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002.  Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...

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RUBEUR Looks Very Bullish

RUBEUR Looks Very Bullish

If you’ve looked at enough charts you tend to, based on past experience, immediately know a good or bad chart when you see it. That was the case when I looked at RUBEUR last evening – the chart looks great,…...

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Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment

Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment

Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Oil Equipment & Services Index along with the index itself.  A decade is a logical period for look-back analysis and doubles as the anniversary of crude’s 2008 all-time high print of ~$145.  I’ve…...

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Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...

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Crude: 1980-1990...2008-2018

Crude: 1980-1990…2008-2018

Recall this mid-May post on the relationship b/t crude and gold.  Therein, I also spoke about crude on its own, as follows: “What’s also interesting about crude since 2008 is how closely its cycle resembles the period from 1980-summer-1987.” I presented…...

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Final Preparations and Focus for Nikkei Rally to 40K

Final Preparations and Focus for Nikkei Rally to 40K

As I recently did with my silver work, today we focus on the tactical aspects of our broader, more strategic call for the Nikkei to hit 40K this or next year, first outlined here and then here. Put simply, I believe…...

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China Nears 25-Yr Relative Support vs. SPX as R2K Ascends to 30-Yr Channel Resistance

China Nears 25-Yr Relative Support vs. SPX as R2K Ascends to 30-Yr Channel Resistance

Below the ratio of the SSEC vs. SPX is nearing a 25-yr support line. That line sits at ~1.00 vs. the ratio’s current print of ~1.05.  So, a few % lower. Knowing China, there will probably be some theatrics involved…...

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Second Stage of Bitcoin Crash Sequence To Begin Very Soon

Second Stage of Bitcoin Crash Sequence To Begin Very Soon

Below I plot a daily chart of silver that depicts the various steps of its crash sequence after peaking in 2011 at $50. In the aggregate, the crash sequence takes place inside an obvious and bearish descending triangle.  Once it finally…...

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Set-Up for Uranium Looks Bullish

Set-Up for Uranium Looks Bullish

Few realize it, but the US uranium industry filed a Section 232 petition with the US Department of Commerce (DoC) in Jan-18 seeking relief from the harmful consequences of uranium imports, almost all of which come from state-owned, sponsored or…...

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