Tech Respite

Tech Respite

Originally written 2022-05-07 I view a rebound in speculative tech as likely, and possibly huge in some names, but something to sell, esp. if one has been improperly positioned, and that we are ~halfway through a 2000-2002 period again in…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Hello world!

Hello world!

It’s been a full two years and two months since my last entry and it’s good to be back. As we thrown on our #45 jersey and get back in the saddle let’s ease into things with a simple update…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Recipe for a Major Blow-Off?

Recipe for a Major Blow-Off?

Here’s an updated look at the 30-yr secular bear market analog showing the Nikkei’s path since its all-time high of ~40K in 1989 vs. 30-yr bears traced out by the same index 1920-1950 and silver 1980-2010.  As I’ve said repeatedly,…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
EM/SPX Decline Since 2010 Peak Among History's Worst Going Back 100 Years

EM/SPX Decline Since 2010 Peak Among History’s Worst Going Back 100 Years

Since its secular peak in Sep-2010, or ~9-yrs ago, the ratio of EM vs. SPX equities has fallen 64%.  This 9-yr RoC is plotted via the red line below.  The dotted black line highlights the worst 9-yr RoC print in…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Gold Miner Secular Bull Thesis Update: Major Upside Yet to Come

Gold Miner Secular Bull Thesis Update: Major Upside Yet to Come

I haven’t written about gold miners since Mar-2019.  I also haven’t updated a post from Oct-2018 that attempted to frame how a gold miners bull market might look if their low in that period was “structural” in nature. In that…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Massive Decline in Commodities vs. U.S. Equities Since 2008 Remains a Key Big-Picture Paradigm

Massive Decline in Commodities vs. U.S. Equities Since 2008 Remains a Key Big-Picture Paradigm

Depending on which index you use – SPX vs. DJI – commodities have fallen ~84%-87% vs. stocks since peaking in 2008, just as west-Texas crude touched ~$150 a barrel. I have discussed this reality repeatedly on the site over the…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Making the Cyclical Long Case for Chinese Equities

Making the Cyclical Long Case for Chinese Equities

Quick thought exercise: ownership of what asset is more anathematic than any other at the moment? Chinese equities!  You can’t touch em’ with a 10′ pole.  Can you name a single reason why you or anybody else should own them? This…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Generational Semiconductor Bull Market: Potential for a 2X Move in the SOX From Current Levels

Generational Semiconductor Bull Market: Potential for a 2X Move in the SOX From Current Levels

In late December 2013 I penned a piece titled “Semis On Deck”.  In fairly detailed manner I explained why I thought semis were about to begin a material and sustained out-performance run vs. the broader market, a thesis I initially roughed out in…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Food Retail on the Cusp of a Major, Long-Term Relative Break-Out

Food Retail on the Cusp of a Major, Long-Term Relative Break-Out

Below I plot a long-term chart depicting the ratio of the DJ Food Retail & Wholesale Index vs. SPX on a monthly basis.  You’ll note that with a few weeks left in June, we appear to be staging a major…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Semis Clear Key Historical Swing Resistance vs. SPX

Semis Clear Key Historical Swing Resistance vs. SPX

After failing here multiple times in 2017-2018, the ratio of the $SOX vs. $SPX has cleared key historical swing resistance vs. the $SPX dating back to the 1990s in recent weeks. Perhaps the ratio is overbought and in need of…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register