200 Years of History Holds in 2018 as the SPX Total Return Index Fails to Register a 10th Consecutive Annual Gain

200 Years of History Holds in 2018 as the SPX Total Return Index Fails to Register a 10th Consecutive Annual Gain

In July of last year I noted in this post that the SPX Total Return Index had posted a 9th consecutive annual gain in 2017 for only the fifth time in nearly 200 years of data.  I emphasized that a…...

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A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Bovespa Total Return Index (IBOV) vs. the SPX Total Return Index.  The ratio appears to be staging a clean, noteworthy break above falling resistance that’s been in place since…...

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Approaching a Cyclical Low in EM Equities

Approaching a Cyclical Low in EM Equities

For some time I’ve maintained the view that since peaking in 2007, EM equities have been in a secular bear akin to the two witnessed on the DJI from 1906-1925 and 1966-1985.  That said, as secular bears go, such cycles…...

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Ratio of SPX High vs. Low Beta Indices Reaching Decade-Long Support

Ratio of SPX High vs. Low Beta Indices Reaching Decade-Long Support

Below I plot the ratio of the SPX high-beta index vs. its low-beta cousin.  Note the ratio is reaching decade-long support that works off the major 2009 GFC low and early 2016 global commodity/equity low that pivoted risk assets higher…...

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Corn - As Oversold as It Gets

Corn – As Oversold as It Gets

Below I plot the 7-yr RoC in corn.  At its worst point in Aug-18 it printed -54%, a touch above the two worst readings in history including Aug-87 and Jun-03, both at -56%. After the bombed out 1987 and 2003…

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Global Composites

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Global Composites

Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history.  Today, I switch gears and show ratios of major global composites vs. the SPX, mostly non-US ones.  This will help spell out where…...

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LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Transportation SECTOR

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Transportation SECTOR

Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history.  Posts will be grouped by sector, and each sector post will show all the relative sub-industries within it.  I’ve generally tried to only…...

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Team Trump Publicly Echoing McKinley, but in the Spirit of FDR and Nixon

Team Trump Publicly Echoing McKinley, but in the Spirit of FDR and Nixon

Over the past year I’ve spent much time on this site detailing the bullish/bearish case for gold miners and the USD. The axis of this thesis spins on the idea that 2018 is analogous to the early 1930s and 1970s,…...

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US Equity Bear Approaching Confirmation Point

US Equity Bear Approaching Confirmation Point

Below, note that the SPX has been flirting with cycle trend-line support off the 2009 lows for the past few weeks at inset (1).  With yesterday’s massive reversal off the Trump-Xi “truce” spike on Monday, we have now definitively broken…...

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Equities vs. Commodities - Something Still Has to Give

Equities vs. Commodities – Something Still Has to Give

Throughout 2018 I’ve covered the historically fast and deep decline in commodities vs. stocks over the decade that has ensued since the former peaked in 2008.   See here and here as background. I wanted to revisit the topic again just…...

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