![Making the Cyclical Long Case for Chinese Equities](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/08/2019-08-20-SSEC-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Making the Cyclical Long Case for Chinese Equities
Quick thought exercise: ownership of what asset is more anathematic than any other at the moment? Chinese equities! You can’t touch em’ with a 10′ pole. Can you name a single reason why you or anybody else should own them? This…...
![It Can Get Worse for China](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2018-11-30-SHCOMP-Percent-of-Trail-15-Mo-with-Losses-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
It Can Get Worse for China
Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...
![China Nears 25-Yr Relative Support vs. SPX as R2K Ascends to 30-Yr Channel Resistance](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/2018-06-20-Ratio-SSEC-vs.-SPX-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
China Nears 25-Yr Relative Support vs. SPX as R2K Ascends to 30-Yr Channel Resistance
Below the ratio of the SSEC vs. SPX is nearing a 25-yr support line. That line sits at ~1.00 vs. the ratio’s current print of ~1.05. So, a few % lower. Knowing China, there will probably be some theatrics involved…...
![Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017-04-25-Ratio-CRB-Index-vs.-USD-Weekly-2.png?resize=150%2C150)
Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP
I reviewed China in a Dec-16 post, focusing on what at the time seemed to be a building case for out-sized moves in USDCNY and the SHCOMP and largely predicated on how the ratio chart b/t these two items seemed to…...
![Closing the Loop on Japan & China](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2016-12-07-Ratio-Nikkei-vs.-SHCOMP-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Closing the Loop on Japan & China
In the past few days I’ve detailed important inflection points in both Japan & China, at least as I perceived them. The only thing I didn’t do was throw up a ratio chart b/t the two region’s equity markets –…...
![Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2016-12-07-SHCOMP-w-9-Mo-Hi-Lo-Range-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)
China’s equity market has been dead for the past year and it’s 9 mo hi/lo range now < 12%, about tied for lowest on record with similar prints in Mar-01 and Jul-14. Both of the above dates preceded robust expansions…...
![SSEC Has Another ~20% of Additional Downside and is Likey to Remain in Relative Free-Fall](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2016-01-13-SSEC-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
SSEC Has Another ~20% of Additional Downside and is Likey to Remain in Relative Free-Fall
On the heels of our late Dec-15 post that suggested China’s depression was set to intensify in early 2016, I’ve updated that view via the SSEC plot below. The chart pattern over the past 18 months – base, large run…...
![TED Spreads Lead & The Real Driver Behind The Fed's Decision to Hike Rates](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/2015-12-23-TED-Spreads-with-SPX-2008-Daily1.png?resize=150%2C150)
TED Spreads Lead & The Real Driver Behind The Fed’s Decision to Hike Rates
I’ve written a good deal this week about TED spreads blowing out significantly recently. Today I wanted to look at snapshots of the last few times TED spreads have blown out like they are now to see how the equity…...
![CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/2015-10-19-USD-vs.-SSEC-CNH-vs.-SPX-Futures-CNH-vs.-Crude.png?resize=150%2C150)
CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign
The relationship b/t the USD and CNH increasingly appears to be the single most important global macro input factor. USD’s relevance has always been well appreciated but the closer I examine it v-a-v CNH, and China in general, the more significant…...