It Can Get Worse for China

It Can Get Worse for China

Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
China Nears 25-Yr Relative Support vs. SPX as R2K Ascends to 30-Yr Channel Resistance

China Nears 25-Yr Relative Support vs. SPX as R2K Ascends to 30-Yr Channel Resistance

Below the ratio of the SSEC vs. SPX is nearing a 25-yr support line. That line sits at ~1.00 vs. the ratio’s current print of ~1.05.  So, a few % lower. Knowing China, there will probably be some theatrics involved…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP

Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP

I reviewed China in a Dec-16 post, focusing on what at the time seemed to be a building case for out-sized moves in USDCNY and the SHCOMP and largely predicated on how the ratio chart b/t these two items seemed to…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Closing the Loop on Japan & China

Closing the Loop on Japan & China

In the past few days I’ve detailed important inflection points in both Japan & China, at least as I perceived them. The only thing I didn’t do was throw up a ratio chart b/t the two region’s equity markets –…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

China’s equity market has been dead for the past year and it’s 9 mo hi/lo range now < 12%, about tied for lowest on record with similar prints in Mar-01 and Jul-14. Both of the above dates preceded robust expansions…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
SSEC Has Another ~20% of Additional Downside and is Likey to Remain in Relative Free-Fall

SSEC Has Another ~20% of Additional Downside and is Likey to Remain in Relative Free-Fall

On the heels of our late Dec-15 post that suggested China’s depression was set to intensify in early 2016, I’ve updated that view via the SSEC plot below. The chart pattern over the past 18 months – base, large run…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
TED Spreads Lead & The Real Driver Behind The Fed's Decision to Hike Rates

TED Spreads Lead & The Real Driver Behind The Fed’s Decision to Hike Rates

I’ve written a good deal this week about TED spreads blowing out significantly recently. Today I wanted to look at snapshots of the last few times TED spreads have blown out like they are now to see how the equity…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign

CNH in Macro Driver Seat, Has Potential to Create Global Deflation Under PBoC Devaluation Campaign

The relationship b/t the USD and CNH increasingly appears to be the single most important global macro input factor. USD’s relevance has always been well appreciated but the closer I examine it v-a-v CNH, and China in general, the more significant…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Chinese Stock Rally Has Outstripped Even Our Lofty Expectations from Summer 2013

Chinese Stock Rally Has Outstripped Even Our Lofty Expectations from Summer 2013

Beginning with this piece from July 2013 in which we juxtaposed our bullish view on the prospects for Chinese equities with Barron’s call for an imminent credit crisis there,  I’d like to believe my work on the region in recent times has…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Bond Prices Peaking, Yields Bottoming?

Bond Prices Peaking, Yields Bottoming?

In the chart below you’ll find 30 year US treasury bond prices.  For the past ~30 years those prices have traveled within an upward sloping channel as yields have continuously fallen, b/t lines (1) and (2). The recent plunge in…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register