Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment

Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment

Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Oil Equipment & Services Index along with the index itself.  A decade is a logical period for look-back analysis and doubles as the anniversary of crude’s 2008 all-time high print of ~$145.  I’ve…...

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Crude: 1980-1990...2008-2018

Crude: 1980-1990…2008-2018

Recall this mid-May post on the relationship b/t crude and gold.  Therein, I also spoke about crude on its own, as follows: “What’s also interesting about crude since 2008 is how closely its cycle resembles the period from 1980-summer-1987.” I presented…...

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Closing the Loop on Japan & China

Closing the Loop on Japan & China

In the past few days I’ve detailed important inflection points in both Japan & China, at least as I perceived them. The only thing I didn’t do was throw up a ratio chart b/t the two region’s equity markets –…...

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Europe/US Relative Strength at 30-Year Channel Support

Europe/US Relative Strength at 30-Year Channel Support

As broken as the EU is, the ratio of the STOXX 600 vs. SPX now sits at 30-year channel support (panel 1), with the last six months of under-performance ostensibly driven by crack-up fears (BREXIT, Italy, etc.). Also note that…...

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Press Long Semi Bets

Press Long Semi Bets

A month ago we put together a semiconductor-related post that highlighted the likelihood of the group vastly out-performing the broader market. Since then both the SMH ETF and the SOX Index are up ~10% vs. the SPX.  Not a bad relative…

Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX

Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX

In the chart below I plot the SMH semiconductor ETF vs. SPY on a monthly closing basis. Note that it is breaking above line (1) and (2) resistance; line (1) dates back ~16 years and line (2) a decade.  This…...

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Long AMZN, Short AAPL Pair Trade Has Legs

Long AMZN, Short AAPL Pair Trade Has Legs

On 12/17/15 in this post we highlighted the favorable technical set-up in the ratio of AMZN vs. AAPL and said the following about the first chart below, which is the chart we presented in the original post: “Here’s AMZN vs. AAPL.  I…

MSFT Attractive vs. AAPL

MSFT Attractive vs. AAPL

I’ve beat the tune of the bullish MSFT drums on this site dating back to 2013. Most recently I suggested a spread trade b/t it on the long side and an INTC short on 1/9/16 in this post using this…...

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Additional "Relative" Opportunities

Additional “Relative” Opportunities

On 12/16/15 I outlined in this reasonably detailed post what I thought were a collection of strong relative strength ideas. The overriding conclusion from all of the charts presented in that post was that non-cyclical areas of the world were apt…...

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WMT Attractive on a Relative Basis

WMT Attractive on a Relative Basis

Suggested a long in WMT on 11/18/15 when the stock was ~$60 in this post. With today’s gains the stock is now printing ~$63, so ~+500 bps since then.  By contrast, the SPX is -300 bps over the same period.  That’s…...

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