WMT Attractive on a Relative Basis

WMT Attractive on a Relative Basis

Suggested a long in WMT on 11/18/15 when the stock was ~$60 in this post. With today’s gains the stock is now printing ~$63, so ~+500 bps since then.  By contrast, the SPX is -300 bps over the same period.  That’s…...

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Long Radio-active, Coal Finally Looks Attr-active on a Relative Basis

Long Radio-active, Coal Finally Looks Attr-active on a Relative Basis

A long, long time ago in Aug-12 we wondered out loud if the world no longer needed coal. We went on to suggest a month later in Sep-12, mightily incorrectly we might add, that coal stocks could begin out-performing. Since both…...

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Despite Massive YTD Run, AMZN Remains Very Compelling; Could Hit $1,000+ Or At Least Out-Perform AAPL Significantly

Despite Massive YTD Run, AMZN Remains Very Compelling; Could Hit $1,000+ Or At Least Out-Perform AAPL Significantly

AMZN has had an amazing run since bottoming at <$300 in early 2015, having ripped ~135% higher in the process.  Despite this run, the charts for the stock, both on an absolute basis and relative basis vs. nearly anything else you…

Airline Outperformance vs. Railroads to Continue, Accelerate

Airline Outperformance vs. Railroads to Continue, Accelerate

This post is a spread trade dedicated to two components of the DJ Transportation Index. In the chart below the ratio of the DJ Railroad Index vs. the DJ Airline Index is breaking below key, long-term support lines (1)-(3). Given…...

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PMs Appear Green-Lit to Advance

PMs Appear Green-Lit to Advance

In the chart below take note of the simple fact that the DXY index (USD) appears poised to break down from a consolidation/flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) through much of 2015 at inset (A) while at inset (B), it is…...

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After Brief Respite, Rates Set to Rise Again

After Brief Respite, Rates Set to Rise Again

After a brief respite, I believe rates are set to rise again, especially on the long bond. This was a thesis we originally laid out here on 6/15/15.  That day rates on the 30 yr closed at 3.09% vs. the…...

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IBEX to Outperform SPX

IBEX to Outperform SPX

In the chart below the ratio of the IBEX vs. SPX is attempting to break above long-term resistance line (1). Look at how well-behaved the ratio b/t these two assets has been across this line historically. Also note the precipitous…...

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Semi Thesis Bears Fruit

Semi Thesis Bears Fruit

We have been extolling the virtues of the coming wave of potential semiconductor out-performance since July of last year. We were probably a touch early with that call as the relative performance of the group fell ~170 bps from the…...

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Semi Update

Semi Update

Wanted to provide a quick blurb on the semi space and note that it appears as if our recent bull case on the group is just now beginning to bear fruit. As it stands, YTD the SOX is now up…...

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Semis On Deck

Semis On Deck

Our views on semis have evolved as follows over the past year+: 10/15/12: “…we believe semiconductors have more relative downside left vs. the broader market…” 7/16/13: “…we are ready to make a high conviction industry call on semi-conductors and suggest over-weighting the…...

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