Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support
Below, the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index sits atop nearly 85-yr support dating back to the early 1930s, specifically 1933. Even more specifically, the support begins in Apr-May-1933. This is what happened in Apr-May-1933. Support was last touched in late…...
Global Macro Round-Up
FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue. USDCNY is currently testing…...
Historically Oversold Gold
Gold peaked a little over seven years ago in Apr-11. If we construct a simple 7-yr RoC chart below we find that as of Aug-18’s swing low, that RoC stood at -34%, tied with Mar-01’s level and slightly better than -39%…...
Chinese-Inspired Red October?
The ratio of gold vs. CNYUSD has coiled up into what appears to be a bullish pattern in the chart below, with numerous bullish RSI deviations even as price has pushed lower over the past 18 months. This means one…...
Hand-in-Glove
As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history. The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but when the ratio makes big directional moves, it…...
Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications
Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver. August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing. It shows that the bear cycle…...
Gold/Silver Ratio Very Close to Clearing Nearly 30 Years of Down-Trend Resistance
In the chart below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver on a monthly basis, a thematic I highlighted in this recent post. Since the ratio peaked in 1991 it’s secular impulse has been one of incessant weakness-to-sideways action amid…...
History Being Made Everywhere: Ratio of Gold Miners vs. Gold Breaking Below 80-Yr Support Shelf
Another crazy chart/data point below that’s consistent with much of the other mind-melting (i.e., 200-yr-type historical anomalies) stuff I’ve been putting on the site lately… The ratio of gold miners as an industry vs. gold itself has broken below an…
Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s
In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad. Further, a similar pattern formed in the ~1915-1930 time period, with a…...
Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event
In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...