Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...

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Crude: 1980-1990...2008-2018

Crude: 1980-1990…2008-2018

Recall this mid-May post on the relationship b/t crude and gold.  Therein, I also spoke about crude on its own, as follows: “What’s also interesting about crude since 2008 is how closely its cycle resembles the period from 1980-summer-1987.” I presented…...

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Set-Up for Uranium Looks Bullish

Set-Up for Uranium Looks Bullish

Few realize it, but the US uranium industry filed a Section 232 petition with the US Department of Commerce (DoC) in Jan-18 seeking relief from the harmful consequences of uranium imports, almost all of which come from state-owned, sponsored or…...

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Speed & Ferocity of Commodity Decline vs. Stocks Since 2008 is Historic

Speed & Ferocity of Commodity Decline vs. Stocks Since 2008 is Historic

I’ve recently discussed the speed and ferocity of the relative decline in commodities vs. stocks since the former, via the CRB Index, peaked in 2008 vs. the DJI. At the ratio’s recent low in Jan-18 it had fallen > 81% vs….

Incorporating Tactical Precision into our Big-Picture Silver Work

Incorporating Tactical Precision into our Big-Picture Silver Work

I’ve recently written extensively about why I believe silver is poised for a window of out-sized upside this year, if even it comes in a brief window of time like 1987’s 65% rally, which occurred in two months. This thesis is largely…

Crude-Gold Relationship at an Important Juncture

Crude-Gold Relationship at an Important Juncture

In early 2016 amid the global commodity/EM crash the ratio of crude oil vs. gold reached a historic, ~135-yr low, per the chart below. However, per the falling resistance in the monthly chart above, as well as the more detailed…

Ag Commodity Complex Historically Oversold

Ag Commodity Complex Historically Oversold

Like nearly all of the commodity complex ex crude, the Ag portion of the space [via the S&P GSCI Ag Index: (SPGSAGD)] put in an all-time high bubble top in Mar-11 with the the YoY on the SPGSAGD first entering negative…...

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Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely mired in an ongoing secular bear, were nonetheless about…...

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Commodity Secular Bears: A Century's Worth of Historical Perspective

Commodity Secular Bears: A Century’s Worth of Historical Perspective

It’s Apr-18.  That means we’re at the 7-yr anniversary of the global commodity super-cycle peak of 2011.  This offers a neat and convenient time-based milestone upon which to assess the unrelenting carnage in the group since that peak and how it…...

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Growing Dossier of Bullish Silver Analytics

Growing Dossier of Bullish Silver Analytics

In recent weeks I’ve begun to note the historically tight hi/lo price ranges within the PM complex, first noting both gold and silver’s compressed 48-mo ranges here, and then silver’s 12 mo range here. Historically speaking, such compression has been indicative…...

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