Accelerated Domestic Equity Upside (2013 Repeat?)

Accelerated Domestic Equity Upside (2013 Repeat?)

I generally try to avoid granular, shorter-term chart analysis, but I’m going to do just that in the one presented below because the analysis comes in the context of corroboratory evidence for a broader framework and thesis. Either way, note that…...

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EMs Approaching Long-Term Resistance, What Next?

EMs Approaching Long-Term Resistance, What Next?

The MSCI EM Index (MXEF) is approaching historical resistance dating back to its 2007 highs on a monthly closing basis below. On a weekly closing basis the set-up is similar, though the index has some remaining upside left. In the…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

It’s now been over a year since I originally presented the “mid-cycle pause” analog framework in this post.  In addition to crossing the one-year anniversary for introducing this framework, I haven’t had a new post on the topic for two months, so…...

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Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP

Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP

I reviewed China in a Dec-16 post, focusing on what at the time seemed to be a building case for out-sized moves in USDCNY and the SHCOMP and largely predicated on how the ratio chart b/t these two items seemed to…...

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Overbought?

Overbought?

Hearing a lot about how over-bought US equities are lately. Much of the clamor is related to the relentless sprint higher since 11/8/16 and the election of Trump. However, if one can accept the assumption that the cycle underway is…

Analog/Cycle Update

Analog/Cycle Update

The “pause” the market experienced from May-15 until later last year, whereby it traded in a tight sideways range for a little over a year without falling meaningfully, has but three historical precedents going back to the 1800s. Near identical…...

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2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year

2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year

On 8/15/12 I penned a piece that suggested the DJI had a 90%+ (91% to be exact) probability of being higher one year out with a median expected gain of ~15%. The nuts and bolts of that summer-2012 analysis and…...

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EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

Emerging markets, via MXEF (MSCI EM Index), peaked in Oct-07 at ~1,300.  Today, some ~480 weeks and over nine years later, it stands at ~887, or 32% below its Oct-07 high.  Throughout the entirety of that elapsed time period MXEF…...

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Counting Both Up & Down

Counting Both Up & Down

The markets have rallied very nicely as of late.  I could do another mid-cycle pause analog update, but I tend to do a lot of those, and am frankly tired of looking at those charts for the time being. Instead…...

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Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Below I plot the ratio of the PCAC Index (Producer Price Index – All Commodities) vs. the USD Index (DXY) over time along with a ~43-year support line dating back to 1973. While not at support, the ratio is very…...

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