Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP

Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP

I reviewed China in a Dec-16 post, focusing on what at the time seemed to be a building case for out-sized moves in USDCNY and the SHCOMP and largely predicated on how the ratio chart b/t these two items seemed to…...

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Overbought?

Overbought?

Hearing a lot about how over-bought US equities are lately. Much of the clamor is related to the relentless sprint higher since 11/8/16 and the election of Trump. However, if one can accept the assumption that the cycle underway is…

Analog/Cycle Update

Analog/Cycle Update

The “pause” the market experienced from May-15 until later last year, whereby it traded in a tight sideways range for a little over a year without falling meaningfully, has but three historical precedents going back to the 1800s. Near identical…...

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2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year

2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year

On 8/15/12 I penned a piece that suggested the DJI had a 90%+ (91% to be exact) probability of being higher one year out with a median expected gain of ~15%. The nuts and bolts of that summer-2012 analysis and…...

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EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

Emerging markets, via MXEF (MSCI EM Index), peaked in Oct-07 at ~1,300.  Today, some ~480 weeks and over nine years later, it stands at ~887, or 32% below its Oct-07 high.  Throughout the entirety of that elapsed time period MXEF…...

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Counting Both Up & Down

Counting Both Up & Down

The markets have rallied very nicely as of late.  I could do another mid-cycle pause analog update, but I tend to do a lot of those, and am frankly tired of looking at those charts for the time being. Instead…...

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Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Below I plot the ratio of the PCAC Index (Producer Price Index – All Commodities) vs. the USD Index (DXY) over time along with a ~43-year support line dating back to 1973. While not at support, the ratio is very…...

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Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

China’s equity market has been dead for the past year and it’s 9 mo hi/lo range now < 12%, about tied for lowest on record with similar prints in Mar-01 and Jul-14. Both of the above dates preceded robust expansions…...

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A Look at Historical Secular Bears

A Look at Historical Secular Bears

Consider the very long-term DJI chart below with quarterly price data extending back to the late 19th century. In it you’ll find annotations of the index’s three historical secular bear markets from the early 20th century (1905-1925), off the pre…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

I last updated my mid-cycle pause analog nearly two months ago, all the way back on 9/30/16. The truth of the matter has been that up until the past two weeks post-11/8 U.S. presidential election, that framework seemed all but…...

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