Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely

Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely

In late Dec-17 I outlined a case for the Nikkei reaching 40K during 2018 in this post. As ridiculous as that sounded at the time, I thought the analytical justification was sound.  Generally, the Nikkei’s path from 1989-Dec-17 was highly analogous…...

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Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History

Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History

The SPX’s YoY comp went positive for the first time in Oct-09 as the world emerged from the GFC.  That was 103 months ago. Rounding it down to an even 100 months, as of Apr-17 the index’s YoY had been…

Additional Evidence Suggesting a Historic Top in Place for Defense Stocks

Additional Evidence Suggesting a Historic Top in Place for Defense Stocks

In March I began making the case that defense stocks were in the process of putting an important top in place, which you can read about here. However, at that time I don’t think I fully appreciated the exact nature…...

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Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely mired in an ongoing secular bear, were nonetheless about…...

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Commodity Secular Bears: A Century's Worth of Historical Perspective

Commodity Secular Bears: A Century’s Worth of Historical Perspective

It’s Apr-18.  That means we’re at the 7-yr anniversary of the global commodity super-cycle peak of 2011.  This offers a neat and convenient time-based milestone upon which to assess the unrelenting carnage in the group since that peak and how it…...

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Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?

Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?

Our mid-cycle pause analog framework has served us exceedingly well for two years since its original construction in this March 2016 post.  And while no framework will ever be perfect, its accuracy has nonetheless been exceptional in divining the future over…...

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How Does Bitcoin Not Reach $1M+ in 2018?

How Does Bitcoin Not Reach $1M+ in 2018?

Haven’t updated my thoughts on Bitcoin (BB: XBT) in quite some time. I’m going to simply re-present the same set-up I did in our original thesis on XBT way back in Feb-17 when it was printing $1K, not the $20K it reached…...

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Last Buyable Correction into the Final Run?

Last Buyable Correction into the Final Run?

I’d like to use this post to analyze the current ~10% correction in US equities in the context of our mid-cycle pause analog.  As that framework goes, I’m not entirely surprised the correction is occurring here and now. I’m not…...

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Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support

Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support

Something on the macro front that’s beginning to get some attention is the US yield curve (2s10s), but I think it’s being discussed and analyzed absent proper context. What’s being emphasized is its collapse over the past year.  This is true…...

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How Historic Bubbles End

How Historic Bubbles End

The selling in Bitcoin has been relentless since its 12/17/17 peak.  Moreover, since then, its rallies have been listless and lacking in vigor. It all adds up to a major deviation in the road-map I had envisioned for the asset relative…...

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