Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks

Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks

Had a repeat of 1937 been on tap, the market would have followed through on last week’s ~300 bps decline with further weakness.  It didn’t and instead, rebounded strongly.  So, back to the drawing board. As you are well aware, I…...

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History's Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles

History’s Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles

It’s one thing to analyze trough-peak equity cycles, indexing to 100% off a major low; it’s another to study them peak-peak, indexing to 100% off a major high, following both the ensuing bear market and the subsequent rebound and bull…...

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*If* Gold Miners Have Bottomed...

*If* Gold Miners Have Bottomed…

…this is how we might expect them to trade in their first year per rallies off secular lows in 1932, 1971 and 2000. The black plot is off the 8/18/18 low.  Recall that data is FTSE-JSE Gold Miner Index in USD-terms. …...

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Hand-in-Glove

Hand-in-Glove

As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history.  The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but when the ratio makes big directional moves, it…...

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Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support

Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support

Something on the macro front that’s beginning to get some attention is the US yield curve (2s10s), but I think it’s being discussed and analyzed absent proper context. What’s being emphasized is its collapse over the past year.  This is true…...

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US Equities' Historically Extended RSI

US Equities’ Historically Extended RSI

As of the week of 12/15/17 the DJI’s weekly RSI logged a print of 85.6 (have chosen DJI instead of SPX because former has more available chart history).  It’s continued to print > 85 in each of the ensuing three…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update: First Signs of Euphoria?

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update: First Signs of Euphoria?

Since I last updated my big-picture, mid-cycle pause analog framework for assessing US equities in mid-October in this post, optimism about Trump’s tax plan and its ability to successfully sail through Congress has mounted.  Tax-related optimism has begun to infect…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

It’s been nearly three months since I last updated my big-picture US equity cycle analogs.  Let’s take the time to refresh them now. Here’s our mid-cycle pause analog.  Price continues to track closely to our historical comparisons, albeit below the “average” levels they imply…...

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One-Way

One-Way

Although the nadir for the DJI during the GFC came in Mar-09, the index’s YoY didn’t turn positive until Oct-09. That was 95 months ago. Remarkably, the index’s YoY has been positive in 85 of those ensuing 95 months, or 89%…...

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Cycle Peak Mosaic Building Efforts Continue

Cycle Peak Mosaic Building Efforts Continue

In my last big picture update piece here we talked about the difficulty at this stage of the game of trying to prognosticate when or at what price level this US equity bull cycle will flame out. We have our…...

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