US Equities' Historically Extended RSI

US Equities’ Historically Extended RSI

As of the week of 12/15/17 the DJI’s weekly RSI logged a print of 85.6 (have chosen DJI instead of SPX because former has more available chart history).¬† It’s continued to print > 85 in each of the ensuing three…...

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Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally

Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally

I increasingly struggle to find bearish historical precedents that line up with the market’s tone, tenor and structure over the past ~year. Though I was able to nail the collapse that came in Aug-15 right before it occurred¬†and correctly saw…...

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Major Long-Term SPX Price & Momentum Deviations

Major Long-Term SPX Price & Momentum Deviations

Just plotting the SPX w/ its RSI on a weekly basis in the chart below. A couple of things to note: Price and momentum, via the RSI, have deviated materially since early/mid 2013 until now with price continuing higher as…...

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Obscure Measure of Market Internals Pointing to a "Bull Treat"?

Obscure Measure of Market Internals Pointing to a “Bull Treat”?

I’d like to think nobody has ever considered using the RSI of the ratio of XLP vs. SPX to gauge market internals and overall macro risk before. As far as I know, I’ve never seen anybody use or write about…...

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Getting Granular - Equities Currently Testing the Veracity of Their Recent Up-trend

Getting Granular – Equities Currently Testing the Veracity of Their Recent Up-trend

By veracity we mean truth. The chart below highlights the SPY on a 60 minute basis over the past year. Note the level of the RSI at (1). With this week’s selling it sits at a level that is typically…

Getting Granular: Negative Divergences b/t Price and Momentum in the SPY

Getting Granular: Negative Divergences b/t Price and Momentum in the SPY

Never want to focus too much on posts like this or make them too frequent as it’s often overly myopic to do so, but thought it’d be worthwhile sharing. In the chart below in region (A) the SPY has recently…

Getting Granular – RSI on SPY 60 Min Chart Once Again Elevated

The RSI on the SPY 60 min chart is once again reaching quite elevated levels. Over the past year, even as the market was working on or within a sustained up-trend, it has paid to wait for better entry prices…...

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Getting Granular – RSI on SPY 60 Min Chart Reaching Extreme Levels Seen Only 4x in Past Year

The RSI on the 60 min SPY chart has only been this elevated, whether it be euphoria or something else, 4x over the past year. Once was in early July 2011 when Greece managed to secure a release of bailout…...

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