Accelerated Domestic Equity Upside (2013 Repeat?)

Accelerated Domestic Equity Upside (2013 Repeat?)

I generally try to avoid granular, shorter-term chart analysis, but I’m going to do just that in the one presented below because the analysis comes in the context of corroboratory evidence for a broader framework and thesis. Either way, note that…...

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More Nikkei Short-Termism & Analog Update

More Nikkei Short-Termism & Analog Update

After correcting ~250 bps into Wednesday 6/10 of this week, the Nikkei rebounded sharply last night. This transition to strength from weakness over the past day resulted in a ~350 bps swing in the U.S. futures contract’s 10 hour RoC…...

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Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 1)

Nikkei Short-Termism (Part 1)

As of Wednesday 5/6 the USD-denominated, CME-listed Nikkei futures contract (NKc1) had been down 8 of 10 days.  We can’t run the same analysis on the actual Nikkei index itself because Japanese markets were closed on 4/29 and 5/4-5/6, or four…...

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Nikkei Granularity & Short-Termism

Nikkei Granularity & Short-Termism

Don’t want to get too cute here because the last thing I want to do is to get excessively myopic about a few % correction from recent highs given the potential upside move to ~35k-45K I’ve been pontificating about for…...

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Market Oversold or More Downside to Come?

Market Oversold or More Downside to Come?

In the chart below the ratio of NYSE Advancing vs. Total Issues is plotted in the lower pane. The current print is highlighted in yellow. Note that since 2006 this level of depressed advancing issues vs. total issues has tended…...

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Getting Granular: Equities Cheap vs. Credit?

Getting Granular: Equities Cheap vs. Credit?

We plot the path HYG & JNK have traveled against SPY over the past year in the chart below. They have all tended to track together over the past year. Just as equities appeared expensive vs. credit in 2Q12 in front of…

Getting Granular - Equities Currently Testing the Veracity of Their Recent Up-trend

Getting Granular – Equities Currently Testing the Veracity of Their Recent Up-trend

By veracity we mean truth. The chart below highlights the SPY on a 60 minute basis over the past year. Note the level of the RSI at (1). With this week’s selling it sits at a level that is typically…

Getting Granular: Negative Divergences b/t Price and Momentum in the SPY

Getting Granular: Negative Divergences b/t Price and Momentum in the SPY

Never want to focus too much on posts like this or make them too frequent as it’s often overly myopic to do so, but thought it’d be worthwhile sharing. In the chart below in region (A) the SPY has recently…

Getting Granular – RSI on SPY 60 Min Chart Once Again Elevated

The RSI on the SPY 60 min chart is once again reaching quite elevated levels. Over the past year, even as the market was working on or within a sustained up-trend, it has paid to wait for better entry prices…...

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