Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds

Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds

“They have no choice, they’re either going to make the trades fair…and if it’s not fixed we’re not going to deal with these countries.” – President Trump at G7 Those sound like fightin’ words to me and they were largely directed…...

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Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely

Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely

In late Dec-17 I outlined a case for the Nikkei reaching 40K during 2018 in this post. As ridiculous as that sounded at the time, I thought the analytical justification was sound.  Generally, the Nikkei’s path from 1989-Dec-17 was highly analogous…...

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Japan: Game On?

Japan: Game On?

I think the answer to this post’s title is a resounding ‘yes’. Having said that, I’ve been spilling ink on this site about Japan dating back to 2012 (there are 102 posts in the site’s N225 category), so it’s probably…...

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Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Below the ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is plotted in the top pane and the Nikkei alone in the bottom pane. In the top pane the ratio b/t the Yen and Nikkei has collapsed back down to support line…...

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JPYUSD, If/When > 1.00, Should Ignite New Upside Phase for Gold

JPYUSD, If/When > 1.00, Should Ignite New Upside Phase for Gold

In the chart below I plot JPYUSD over time. It’s pressing 1.00 as we speak. Over the past 30 years it’s spent very little time above 1.00 (green), but plenty below (red).  Moreover, 1.00 has acted as a very important…

Y(EN)-TERVENTION Imminent?

Y(EN)-TERVENTION Imminent?

When one thinks about the world’s largest exporters of “widgets”, China and Japan come to mind first. Which, in turn, should lead one to a consideration of the JPYCNY cross. Now, given the CNY peg to USD, the JPYCNY cross…...

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Nikkei Still On Track Despite Summer Mishap?

Nikkei Still On Track Despite Summer Mishap?

I’ve not updated any of our Nikkei framework since 8/10 in this post.  It was in that post where we provided an analog update comparing the Nikkei off its swing high in May-13 onward vs. the DJI off its own…...

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Absent Incremental QE from B-of-J, USDJPY Threatening a Major, Sustained Move Lower

Absent Incremental QE from B-of-J, USDJPY Threatening a Major, Sustained Move Lower

The USDJPY cross closed above its 12 mo MA for every month beginning with Oct-12 and ending Aug-15.  That’s a massive three year up-trend. However, in all of the charts below it’s technicals appear quite bearish and in my view, threaten a…...

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Nikkei Update

Nikkei Update

I wanted to update some of my Nikkei work, specifically the analogs comparing the DJI from Feb-26 through its Aug-29 top to the Nikkei from May-13 until current.  Rather than spend time reviewing the original logic of why it made…...

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USDJPY Testing 35-Year Resistance

USDJPY Testing 35-Year Resistance

Below we have weekly close and monthly HLC views of USDJPY. On each we find lines (1) and (2) resistance.  Line (1) is 35-year resistance for USDJPY dating back to ~1978.  Combined with line (2) which runs to ~200, the…...

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