Gold/Silver Ratio Very Close to Clearing Nearly 30 Years of Down-Trend Resistance

Gold/Silver Ratio Very Close to Clearing Nearly 30 Years of Down-Trend Resistance

In the chart below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver on a monthly basis, a thematic I highlighted in this recent post. Since the ratio peaked in 1991 it’s secular impulse has been one of incessant weakness-to-sideways action amid…...

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History Being Made Everywhere: Ratio of Gold Miners vs. Gold Breaking Below 80-Yr Support Shelf

History Being Made Everywhere: Ratio of Gold Miners vs. Gold Breaking Below 80-Yr Support Shelf

Another crazy chart/data point below that’s consistent with much of the other mind-melting (i.e., 200-yr-type historical anomalies) stuff I’ve been putting on the site lately… The ratio of gold miners as an industry vs. gold itself has broken below an…

Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s

Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s

In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad.  Further, a similar pattern formed in the ~1915-1930 time period, with a…...

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Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...

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Incorporating Tactical Precision into our Big-Picture Silver Work

Incorporating Tactical Precision into our Big-Picture Silver Work

I’ve recently written extensively about why I believe silver is poised for a window of out-sized upside this year, if even it comes in a brief window of time like 1987’s 65% rally, which occurred in two months. This thesis is largely…

Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely mired in an ongoing secular bear, were nonetheless about…...

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Growing Dossier of Bullish Silver Analytics

Growing Dossier of Bullish Silver Analytics

In recent weeks I’ve begun to note the historically tight hi/lo price ranges within the PM complex, first noting both gold and silver’s compressed 48-mo ranges here, and then silver’s 12 mo range here. Historically speaking, such compression has been indicative…...

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Tightest One-Year Hi-Lo Range in Silver on Record

Tightest One-Year Hi-Lo Range in Silver on Record

Using monthly prices, the spread b/t silver’s hi/lo price over the past 12 months now stands at ~7.3%. That’s the tightest (smallest) spread in history dating back to the post-Bretton Woods era that began in 1971 when Nixon abandoned the…...

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PM VOL Compression

PM VOL Compression

Below I plot gold and the spread b/t its 48 month high-low price range, which now stands at < 22%. Note that historically such a low spread is quite uncommon. In fact, there are only three other environments  in which…...

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How Does Bitcoin Not Reach $1M+ in 2018?

How Does Bitcoin Not Reach $1M+ in 2018?

Haven’t updated my thoughts on Bitcoin (BB: XBT) in quite some time. I’m going to simply re-present the same set-up I did in our original thesis on XBT way back in Feb-17 when it was printing $1K, not the $20K it reached…...

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