EURUSD Price VOL Approaching Historic Lows
Using standard (20, 2) inputs, last week’s Bollinger Band (BB) print on EURUSD stood at 2.3%, up mildly from the recent low of 2.2% posted in early March. That’s the tightest reading in over 40 years. Not since 1977 when the BB printed…...
Global Commodities Continue to Flirt with 85-Yr Support
I pointed this out at the beginning of March but wanted to do the same as we head toward the end of the month because I find it so important: Global commodity prices, via the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index…
Global Macro Round-Up
FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue. USDCNY is currently testing…...
Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes
As of month-end Sep-18, the USD (via DXY) had appreciated 21% over the trailing seven years while the ratio of EM equities vs. the SPX had declined 54% (seven years ago is where USD bottoms, commodities and EM/SPX generally peak). This…...
USD-Deval Thesis Rounding into View
Recall my early Sep-18 post on the DXY index as background to this post. Specifically, I want to revisit DXY’s comparison to crude in the 1980s/1990s, first outlined in this chart. Below I have updated the pairing. This time I…...
Daily DXY Analog
DXY presented off its Apr-71 and Dec-16 swing highs, but on a daily basis, not weekly as I’ve always shown before. This provides some added granularity. If accurate, the first wave of serious selling begins now and finishes up around…...
CCI & DXY
Fred Bergsten is an economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington,DC think-tank. He’s a huge proponent, and has been for some time, of the US announcing a policy of countervailing currency intervention (CCI). He…...
Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications
Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver. August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing. It shows that the bear cycle…...
Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s
In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad. Further, a similar pattern formed in the ~1915-1930 time period, with a…...
Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels
Below I plot the price of the US long bond. The YTD sell-off in 2018 has taken us down to a critical, nearly 40-yr support level. It is this very support that has defined the secular bull market in fixed…...