![Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2016-12-08-Ratio-PCAC-Index-vs.-DXY-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn
Below I plot the ratio of the PCAC Index (Producer Price Index – All Commodities) vs. the USD Index (DXY) over time along with a ~43-year support line dating back to 1973. While not at support, the ratio is very…...
![Gold Update](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/2016-08-17-Gold-Up-at-Least-550-bps-While-CRB-Down-at-Least-100-Bps-Foward-Return-Price-Target-Table.png?resize=150%2C150)
Gold Update
In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to rally in…...
![SPX Upside to Resume with USD Break-Down](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/2016-04-11-DXY-with-SPX-Daily.png?resize=150%2C150)
SPX Upside to Resume with USD Break-Down
We first broke this chart out a few weeks ago in this post and have updated it below. Without reinventing the wheel, here’s what we said about the chart in that original post: “Per the plots below, note that the SPX’s…...
![With White House Geopolitics Out of the Way the Fed Can Now Resume Blowing Asset Bubbles](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2016-03-31-DJI-1920s-1950s-1990s-2010s-Consolidation-into-Blow-Off-Rallies-Daily.png?resize=150%2C150)
With White House Geopolitics Out of the Way the Fed Can Now Resume Blowing Asset Bubbles
In early March I discussed the heightened prospects of the past year’s worth of VOL simply being a mid or late cycle pause into what would turn out to be a blow-off, bubble inducing rally over some period of ensuing years…....
![How the Fed Abdicated its Independence to White House Geopolitical Strategy on Russia For Nearly Two Years](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/03/2016-03-17-Fed-Dot-Plot.png?resize=150%2C150)
How the Fed Abdicated its Independence to White House Geopolitical Strategy on Russia For Nearly Two Years
In the chart below I plot crude, the Russian Ruble (RUB) and OPEC production. From 2012 through mid-2014 all three print sideways. However, to the day beginning on 7/29/14, crude and RUB begin to collapse while OPEC production soars. Why such…...
![USD Rallies in a Historical Persepctive](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2016-02-27-USTW-Majors-Historical-Rallies-Analog-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
USD Rallies in a Historical Persepctive
Below I’ve analoged the three major rallies the USD (trade-weighted USD vs. major currencies) has enjoyed since the 1970s when the US abandoned the fixed-rate exchange system and linkages to gold that had been employed since Bretton Woods. As mentioned,…...
![Should History Hold, USDMXN at Multi-Decade Channel Resistance Signals Potential for Pivot Higher in Risk Assets, Inflation](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/02/2016-02-17-USDMXN-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Should History Hold, USDMXN at Multi-Decade Channel Resistance Signals Potential for Pivot Higher in Risk Assets, Inflation
In the first chart below I show USDMXN (USD vs. Peso). For nearly two decades back to the latter part of the 90s USDMXN has traveled in an upward-sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2). Over time it has reached…...
![Massive Break-Out in Trade-Weighted USD vs. SPX Signals Intensification of Global Financial Stress](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/2016-01-19-Scatter-Trade-Weighted-Broad-Dollar-USTWBROA-vs.-SPX-Weekly-10-Yrs.png?resize=150%2C150)
Massive Break-Out in Trade-Weighted USD vs. SPX Signals Intensification of Global Financial Stress
In the first chart below I show a scatter plot of the weekly returns in the trade-weighted USD (USTWBROA; y-axis) vs. gold (x-axis) dating back 20 years into 1995. The red dot is this week’s data point. Note that this…...