Gold Miner Secular Bull Thesis Update: Major Upside Yet to Come
I haven’t written about gold miners since Mar-2019. I also haven’t updated a post from Oct-2018 that attempted to frame how a gold miners bull market might look if their low in that period was “structural” in nature. In that…...
Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support
Below, the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index sits atop nearly 85-yr support dating back to the early 1930s, specifically 1933. Even more specifically, the support begins in Apr-May-1933. This is what happened in Apr-May-1933. Support was last touched in late…...
Global Macro Round-Up
FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue. USDCNY is currently testing…...
Team Trump Publicly Echoing McKinley, but in the Spirit of FDR and Nixon
Over the past year I’ve spent much time on this site detailing the bullish/bearish case for gold miners and the USD. The axis of this thesis spins on the idea that 2018 is analogous to the early 1930s and 1970s,…...
Historically Oversold Gold
Gold peaked a little over seven years ago in Apr-11. If we construct a simple 7-yr RoC chart below we find that as of Aug-18’s swing low, that RoC stood at -34%, tied with Mar-01’s level and slightly better than -39%…...
*If* Gold Miners Have Bottomed…
…this is how we might expect them to trade in their first year per rallies off secular lows in 1932, 1971 and 2000. The black plot is off the 8/18/18 low. Recall that data is FTSE-JSE Gold Miner Index in USD-terms. …...
Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications
Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver. August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing. It shows that the bear cycle…...
Gold Miners: Historically Asymmetric Long Opportunity?
Below I plot the long-term ratio of the ratio of the FTSE-JSE Gold Miners Index (USD) vs. SPX along with a linear trend and its regression equation. Data dates to the late 1800s. As you can see, price is well,…...
Glimmers of Hope Amid the Worst Gold Miner Secular Bear Market in History?
GFD has a FTSE-JSE Gold Mining Index that dates back to the 1800s. Within that data I count three major secular bear markets: 1888-1931 (~42 yrs) 1946-1971 (~25 yrs) 1980-Current (~38 years) In USD-terms I analog index price data for each…
History Being Made Everywhere: Ratio of Gold Miners vs. Gold Breaking Below 80-Yr Support Shelf
Another crazy chart/data point below that’s consistent with much of the other mind-melting (i.e., 200-yr-type historical anomalies) stuff I’ve been putting on the site lately… The ratio of gold miners as an industry vs. gold itself has broken below an…