Global Macro Round-Up
FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue. USDCNY is currently testing…...
Where’s Waldo?
In this May-18 post I discussed the significant implications – for both equities and bonds – of the bearish pattern that had emerged in the ratio b/t the SPX and 30-yr rates. In my view, that pattern was highly analogous…...
JGB Yields Breaking Out of Massive Multi-Century Descending Wedge Pattern
Laugh all you want about the merits of multi-century technical analysis (patterns are patterns), and below I attempt just that on 10-yr JGB yields, which are breaking out of a massive descending wedge pattern dating back to the late 1800s…...
Multiple Centuries of US 10-Yr Bond Prices Highlight the Beginning of a New Secular Bear Market
Below I plot the US 10-yr bond price going back multiple centuries, well into the 1800s. Note that over the past few years it’s been battling 100+ yr resistance line (1) and that this resistance has marked the beginning of…...
Crude: 1980-1990…2008-2018
Recall this mid-May post on the relationship b/t crude and gold. Therein, I also spoke about crude on its own, as follows: “What’s also interesting about crude since 2008 is how closely its cycle resembles the period from 1980-summer-1987.” I presented…...
Long Rates, Short Equities?
One of the worst patterns one can ever find is the kind seen on the USD in the late 90s… Three distinct pushes higher over the course of a few years with declining RSI into a H&S type of top…...
Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?
Our mid-cycle pause analog framework has served us exceedingly well for two years since its original construction in this March 2016 post. And while no framework will ever be perfect, its accuracy has nonetheless been exceptional in divining the future over…...
Probability of US Recession Set to Rise Over the Coming Year, Perhaps Materially
Bloomberg publishes a ‘Probability of US Recession Index’ (PROBRECN) based on a machine learning model developed by University of Oregon professor Jeremy Piger. Here’s how Bloomberg describes the index and more detail can be found here: In effect, based on…...
Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels
Below I plot the price of the US long bond. The YTD sell-off in 2018 has taken us down to a critical, nearly 40-yr support level. It is this very support that has defined the secular bull market in fixed…...
Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support
Something on the macro front that’s beginning to get some attention is the US yield curve (2s10s), but I think it’s being discussed and analyzed absent proper context. What’s being emphasized is its collapse over the past year. This is true…...