JGB Yields Breaking Out of Massive Multi-Century Descending Wedge Pattern

JGB Yields Breaking Out of Massive Multi-Century Descending Wedge Pattern

Laugh all you want about the merits of multi-century technical analysis (patterns are patterns), and below I attempt just that on 10-yr JGB yields, which are breaking out of a massive descending wedge pattern dating back to the late 1800s…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Multiple Centuries of US 10-Yr Bond Prices Highlight the Beginning of a New Secular Bear Market

Multiple Centuries of US 10-Yr Bond Prices Highlight the Beginning of a New Secular Bear Market

Below I plot the US 10-yr bond price going back multiple centuries, well into the 1800s. Note that over the past few years it’s been battling 100+ yr resistance line (1) and that this resistance has marked the beginning of…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Crude: 1980-1990...2008-2018

Crude: 1980-1990…2008-2018

Recall this mid-May post on the relationship b/t crude and gold.  Therein, I also spoke about crude on its own, as follows: “What’s also interesting about crude since 2008 is how closely its cycle resembles the period from 1980-summer-1987.” I presented…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Long Rates, Short Equities?

Long Rates, Short Equities?

One of the worst patterns one can ever find is the kind seen on the USD in the late 90s… Three distinct pushes higher over the course of a few years with declining RSI into a H&S type of top…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?

Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?

Our mid-cycle pause analog framework has served us exceedingly well for two years since its original construction in this March 2016 post.  And while no framework will ever be perfect, its accuracy has nonetheless been exceptional in divining the future over…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Probability of US Recession Set to Rise Over the Coming Year, Perhaps Materially

Probability of US Recession Set to Rise Over the Coming Year, Perhaps Materially

Bloomberg publishes a  ‘Probability of US Recession Index’ (PROBRECN) based on a machine learning model developed by University of Oregon professor Jeremy Piger.  Here’s how Bloomberg describes the index and more detail can be found here: In effect, based on…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels

Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels

Below I plot the price of the US long bond. The YTD sell-off in 2018 has taken us down to a critical, nearly 40-yr support level.  It is this very support that has defined the secular bull market in fixed…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support

Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support

Something on the macro front that’s beginning to get some attention is the US yield curve (2s10s), but I think it’s being discussed and analyzed absent proper context. What’s being emphasized is its collapse over the past year.  This is true…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Chart Dump

Chart Dump

Let’s start with a top-down view by looking at the R2K. Yesterday’s tax plan-fueled rally in the major indices helped launch it significantly higher.  In the process, the index managed to smash through multiple years of upside resistance.  This resistance…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Heading into BREXIT 2.0, Is US Long Bond Analogous to GBP in 3Q92?

Heading into BREXIT 2.0, Is US Long Bond Analogous to GBP in 3Q92?

In a few recent posts I’ve highlighted that the discussions around BREXIT 2.0/ERM2 are occurring as the ratio of the Stoxx600 vs. SPX hits channel support for only the second time in history (on a monthly basis vs. three times on a daily)…....

Member only content: Login to view or Register