Chart Dump

Chart Dump

Let’s start with a top-down view by looking at the R2K. Yesterday’s tax plan-fueled rally in the major indices helped launch it significantly higher.  In the process, the index managed to smash through multiple years of upside resistance.  This resistance…...

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Heading into BREXIT 2.0, Is US Long Bond Analogous to GBP in 3Q92?

Heading into BREXIT 2.0, Is US Long Bond Analogous to GBP in 3Q92?

In a few recent posts I’ve highlighted that the discussions around BREXIT 2.0/ERM2 are occurring as the ratio of the Stoxx600 vs. SPX hits channel support for only the second time in history (on a monthly basis vs. three times on a daily)…....

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All the Macro that's Fit to Print

All the Macro that’s Fit to Print

Every corner rounded seems to be producing a different chimera to be contended with at the moment. BREXIT, growing portions of sovereign debt lurching into negative-yield territory, NIRP chaos and its impact on Euro banks, China deval/credit collapse, Islamo-fascism, Fed tightening and…...

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U.S. Long Bond Yields Threatening Imminent Break of 8-Yr Support, GFC Lows

U.S. Long Bond Yields Threatening Imminent Break of 8-Yr Support, GFC Lows

In the chart below I plot 30-yr U.S. long bond yields over time. A couple things: Yields have traded in a well-defined downward-sloping channel over time Major geo-political/monetary events have occurred when (or as) yields have broken below the green,…...

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TIP Break-Out Confirms Reflation Thematic, Augers for More Equity, PM Upside

TIP Break-Out Confirms Reflation Thematic, Augers for More Equity, PM Upside

As intimated as an increasingly likely outcome in this post on 3/2/16, treasury inflation-protected securities, via the TIP ETF, are breaking out of a consolidation/flag pattern put in place b/t lines (1) and (2) over the past five years. This…...

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Inflation Set to Expand?

Inflation Set to Expand?

The chart below shows TIP, or a vehicle that tracks inflation-protected treasury security prices, with a gold overlay. When TIP is rising in value inflation-protected securities are being bid up in anticipation of inflation rising; when TIP is declining it…...

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30s10s Curve Steepener a Prelude to Higher Gold Prices

30s10s Curve Steepener a Prelude to Higher Gold Prices

In the chart below I’ve plotted the ratio b/t the yield on 30 (TYX) and 10 (TNX) year treasuries over time.  The ratio is simply another way to look at the bps spread diff b/t the two. Note that at each…...

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After Brief Respite, Rates Set to Rise Again

After Brief Respite, Rates Set to Rise Again

After a brief respite, I believe rates are set to rise again, especially on the long bond. This was a thesis we originally laid out here on 6/15/15.  That day rates on the 30 yr closed at 3.09% vs. the…...

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Repeating Pattern in Long Bond Price Suggests its Decline (Yield Rise) to Accelerate

Repeating Pattern in Long Bond Price Suggests its Decline (Yield Rise) to Accelerate

Following up on what we envisioned as its peak (and rates’ trough) from our Feb-2015 post on the subject, at the present time the price of the 30 yr UST is replicating a pattern that has historically signaled the onset…...

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Potential for Sustained Yuan Weakness Likely Signals End of 20-Year Global Economic Paradigm, Nascent Beginnings of New One

Potential for Sustained Yuan Weakness Likely Signals End of 20-Year Global Economic Paradigm, Nascent Beginnings of New One

The Chinese Yuan, and all of its concomitant strength, was likely the most important global macro asset of the past 20 years, 1994 to present day.  It effectively defined a global economic paradigm with the following implications for the West…...

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