LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Global Composites
Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history. Today, I switch gears and show ratios of major global composites vs. the SPX, mostly non-US ones. This will help spell out where…...
German Bank Index Breaking Below 60-Year Support Shelf
Below I plot the German DAX Credit Bank Index (think DB) and note that after a few failed attempts with subsequent bounces in recent years, it finally appears to be breaking below 60 years of support dating back to the…...
Big Picture Update
Our highest conviction thematics within our big picture thinking remain the following: US equities: mid-cycle pause framework EU equities: major periphery rally underway, per N225 (2012) and SHCOMP (2014) set-ups EM equities: large cyclical rally underway up to 2007 highs…...
Is Peripheral Europe’s Permafrost Finally Thawing?
One of the better analytical pieces and frameworks published on this site since 2012 was this piece from 7/2/2013 that questioned the timeliness of Barron’s renewed calls for a Chinese credit crisis by pointing out that since the SHCOMP had…...
EU Analog Update
It’s been two months since we laid out our EU/Portugal analog framework for the first time and six weeks since we last updated it. It now looks as follows (using Portugal’s PSI20 Index; all analogs present the first year of…...
EU Big Picture: Reverberations From 1992 & the Maastricht Treaty
Headed into the BREXIT vote on 6/23/16 we began to discuss the ratio of the STOXX600, Europe’s equivalent of the SPX, relative to the SPX itself. Posts on the topic, both before and after the BREXIT vote, can be found…...
Tracking Regional EU Progress
On 3/28 we noted that Portuguese equities, via the PSI20 Index, had coiled noticeably into what looked to be a bullish pattern that resembled the N225 in late 2012 and SHCOMP in spring/summer 2014 before their ensuing six month and…...
Portuguese Equities Coiled
The PSI20 Index is wound very tightly at the moment (noticeable on the bar or close inset), similar to the N225 in 2012 and SHCOMP in 2014 before their respectively large rallies. Sovereign 10 yr yields also at l-t resistance…...
European Equities Can Continue to Run, Out-Perform
In the chart below I plot the Stoxx600 over time. As of now the YoY has surged to ~+7% after spending the entirety of the past year in negative territory. If you follow the horizontal red line back through history…...
See What Sticks
I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start. When discussed…...