Tracking Regional EU Progress

Tracking Regional EU Progress

On 3/28 we noted that Portuguese equities, via the PSI20 Index, had coiled noticeably into what looked to be a bullish pattern that resembled the N225 in late 2012 and SHCOMP in spring/summer 2014 before their ensuing six month and…...

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Portuguese Equities Coiled

Portuguese Equities Coiled

The PSI20 Index is wound very tightly at the moment (noticeable on the bar or close inset), similar to the N225 in 2012 and SHCOMP in 2014 before their respectively large rallies. Sovereign 10 yr yields also at l-t resistance…...

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European Equities Can Continue to Run, Out-Perform

European Equities Can Continue to Run, Out-Perform

In the chart below I plot the Stoxx600 over time. As of now the YoY has surged to ~+7% after spending the entirety of the past year in negative territory. If you follow the horizontal red line back through history…...

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See What Sticks

See What Sticks

I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start.  When discussed…...

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Europe/US Relative Strength at 30-Year Channel Support

Europe/US Relative Strength at 30-Year Channel Support

As broken as the EU is, the ratio of the STOXX 600 vs. SPX now sits at 30-year channel support (panel 1), with the last six months of under-performance ostensibly driven by crack-up fears (BREXIT, Italy, etc.). Also note that…...

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Is that Something You Might Be Interested In?

Is that Something You Might Be Interested In?

Any former Entourage fan (we’re talking “deep cuts” fan) will remember the character of Bob Ryan, aka “What if I was to tell you…is that something you might be interested in?” Bob Ryan. For the unacquainted, Bob was best known…...

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Relative VOL of UK Equity and FX Printing All-Time Highs into BREXIT Vote

Relative VOL of UK Equity and FX Printing All-Time Highs into BREXIT Vote

Here’s a plot of the ratio b/t UK and US-based equity VOL.  It’s printing all-time highs at the moment, well above previous highs.  In the past, spikes to similar, yet slightly lower highs, have tended to approximate near-term capitulation lows…...

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All the Macro that's Fit to Print

All the Macro that’s Fit to Print

Every corner rounded seems to be producing a different chimera to be contended with at the moment. BREXIT, growing portions of sovereign debt lurching into negative-yield territory, NIRP chaos and its impact on Euro banks, China deval/credit collapse, Islamo-fascism, Fed tightening and…...

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The DAX Bear Rolls On

The DAX Bear Rolls On

Here’s an update to the analog first presented in this post whereby we compared the DAX off its Apr-15 highs to the bear paths it took during its 2000-2002 and 2007-2009 bears.  The current path (black) is updated to reflect…...

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Maastricht Treaty, ERM2 Fraying?

Maastricht Treaty, ERM2 Fraying?

I’ve recently shown, via the chart below, that the ratio of the DJ Stoxx 600 vs. SPX is nearing 20+ year channel support. Said support has only been hit one other time, in fall-92. The relevance of that period is…