Basic Material Depression

Basic Material Depression

Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Basic Materials Index (longer history than SPX Basic Materials Index). Its worst print in 2018 as it lapped the 2008 global commodity high was -63%.  That was the third-worst secular print…...

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India: Best-Looking Equity Market in the World?

India: Best-Looking Equity Market in the World?

Below I plot the Bombay Sensex (BSE) Index going back to 1980 on the left, and 2001 on the right.  The long-term view reveals that the BSE has performed excellently over time.  It also reveals that it tends to make…...

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EURUSD Price VOL Approaching Historic Lows

EURUSD Price VOL Approaching Historic Lows

Using standard (20, 2) inputs, last week’s Bollinger Band (BB) print on EURUSD stood at 2.3%, up mildly from the recent low of 2.2% posted in early March. That’s the tightest reading in over 40 years.  Not since 1977 when the BB printed…...

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Global Commodities Continue to Flirt with 85-Yr Support

Global Commodities Continue to Flirt with 85-Yr Support

I pointed this out at the beginning of March but wanted to do the same as we head toward the end of the month because I find it so important: Global commodity prices, via the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index…

Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support

Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support

Below, the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index sits atop nearly 85-yr support dating back to the early 1930s, specifically 1933. Even more specifically, the support begins in Apr-May-1933.  This is what happened in Apr-May-1933.  Support was last touched in late…...

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Historic Rally Set to Take Place in USDJPY, Nikkei?

Historic Rally Set to Take Place in USDJPY, Nikkei?

Below I plot USDJPY on a monthly closing basis dating back to the 1950s.  Beyond the fact that the resistance is nearly 50 years old, it begins when Nixon abandons the gold standard in 1971 and runs atop the 1985 high that…

Global Macro Round-Up

Global Macro Round-Up

FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue.  USDCNY is currently testing…...

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Surreptitious Bitcoin Bottom?

Surreptitious Bitcoin Bottom?

Bitcoin (BTC) was one of the most enjoyable trades I’ve ever had on because i) I did well $ on it, but ii) up until the end, its path mapped out as well as any I’ve ever seen vs. what the…...

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Turkish Equities Are Very Attractive

Turkish Equities Are Very Attractive

Below I graph the Istanbul 100 in local currency terms.  Note the 2013-2016 consolidation at new all-time highs, the break-out and rally through 2017 and then 2018’s big sell-off to retest the break-out zone as new support.  Atop this new…...

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A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Bovespa Total Return Index (IBOV) vs. the SPX Total Return Index.  The ratio appears to be staging a clean, noteworthy break above falling resistance that’s been in place since…...

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