Global Commodities Continue to Flirt with 85-Yr Support

Global Commodities Continue to Flirt with 85-Yr Support

I pointed this out at the beginning of March but wanted to do the same as we head toward the end of the month because I find it so important: Global commodity prices, via the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index…

Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support

Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support

Below, the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index sits atop nearly 85-yr support dating back to the early 1930s, specifically 1933. Even more specifically, the support begins in Apr-May-1933.  This is what happened in Apr-May-1933.  Support was last touched in late…...

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Historic Rally Set to Take Place in USDJPY, Nikkei?

Historic Rally Set to Take Place in USDJPY, Nikkei?

Below I plot USDJPY on a monthly closing basis dating back to the 1950s.  Beyond the fact that the resistance is nearly 50 years old, it begins when Nixon abandons the gold standard in 1971 and runs atop the 1985 high that…

Global Macro Round-Up

Global Macro Round-Up

FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue.  USDCNY is currently testing…...

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Surreptitious Bitcoin Bottom?

Surreptitious Bitcoin Bottom?

Bitcoin (BTC) was one of the most enjoyable trades I’ve ever had on because i) I did well $ on it, but ii) up until the end, its path mapped out as well as any I’ve ever seen vs. what the…...

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Turkish Equities Are Very Attractive

Turkish Equities Are Very Attractive

Below I graph the Istanbul 100 in local currency terms.  Note the 2013-2016 consolidation at new all-time highs, the break-out and rally through 2017 and then 2018’s big sell-off to retest the break-out zone as new support.  Atop this new…...

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A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Bovespa Total Return Index (IBOV) vs. the SPX Total Return Index.  The ratio appears to be staging a clean, noteworthy break above falling resistance that’s been in place since…...

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BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low

BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low

Below I plot the trailing two month (60 days given weekend trading) price VOL [(max close-min close)/average close] of BTC. Historically, VOL always bottomed b/t 10%-15% whereas the current print of 8.9% is the tightest on record dating back to…...

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Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes

Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes

As of month-end Sep-18, the USD (via DXY) had appreciated 21% over the trailing seven years while the ratio of EM equities vs. the SPX had declined 54% (seven years ago is where USD bottoms, commodities and EM/SPX generally peak).  This…...

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USD-Deval Thesis Rounding into View

USD-Deval Thesis Rounding into View

Recall my early Sep-18 post on the DXY index as background to this post. Specifically, I want to revisit DXY’s comparison to crude in the 1980s/1990s, first outlined in this chart. Below I have updated the pairing.  This time I…...

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