A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Bovespa Total Return Index (IBOV) vs. the SPX Total Return Index.  The ratio appears to be staging a clean, noteworthy break above falling resistance that’s been in place since…...

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BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low

BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low

Below I plot the trailing two month (60 days given weekend trading) price VOL [(max close-min close)/average close] of BTC. Historically, VOL always bottomed b/t 10%-15% whereas the current print of 8.9% is the tightest on record dating back to…...

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Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes

Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes

As of month-end Sep-18, the USD (via DXY) had appreciated 21% over the trailing seven years while the ratio of EM equities vs. the SPX had declined 54% (seven years ago is where USD bottoms, commodities and EM/SPX generally peak).  This…...

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USD-Deval Thesis Rounding into View

USD-Deval Thesis Rounding into View

Recall my early Sep-18 post on the DXY index as background to this post. Specifically, I want to revisit DXY’s comparison to crude in the 1980s/1990s, first outlined in this chart. Below I have updated the pairing.  This time I…...

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Chinese-Inspired Red October?

Chinese-Inspired Red October?

The ratio of gold vs. CNYUSD has coiled up into what appears to be a bullish pattern in the chart below, with numerous bullish RSI deviations even as price has pushed lower over the past 18 months. This means one…...

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Daily DXY Analog

Daily DXY Analog

DXY presented off its Apr-71 and Dec-16 swing highs, but on a daily basis, not weekly as I’ve always shown before. This provides some added granularity. If accurate, the first wave of serious selling begins now and finishes up around…...

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CCI & DXY

CCI & DXY

Fred Bergsten is an economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington,DC think-tank. He’s a huge proponent, and has been for some time, of the US announcing a policy of countervailing currency intervention (CCI).  He…...

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Gold/Silver Ratio - Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver.  August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing.  It shows that the bear cycle…...

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Instanbul 100 Index Has Reached 30-Yr Support in USD Terms

Instanbul 100 Index Has Reached 30-Yr Support in USD Terms

Below I plot Turkey’s Istanbull 100 Index in USD terms. Driven by the recent collapse in the TRY, the index has reached 30-yr support dating back to the mid-1980s. However, should this support break in what would likely be driven…...

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Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s

Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s

In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad.  Further, a similar pattern formed in the ~1915-1930 time period, with a…...

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