Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely

Multi-Century, Cross-Asset Correlation Analysis Suggests Nikkei 40K Remains Feasible, if Not Likely

In late Dec-17 I outlined a case for the Nikkei reaching 40K during 2018 in this post. As ridiculous as that sounded at the time, I thought the analytical justification was sound.  Generally, the Nikkei’s path from 1989-Dec-17 was highly analogous…...

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Pinpointing a Bottom in Bitcoin

Pinpointing a Bottom in Bitcoin

With my oft-repeated suggestion that XBT will reach $1 million in 2018 looking more comical by the day, I thought it appropriate to revisit the asset with a focus not on trying to predict upside, but on attempting to pinpoint a near-term…...

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How Does Bitcoin Not Reach $1M+ in 2018?

How Does Bitcoin Not Reach $1M+ in 2018?

Haven’t updated my thoughts on Bitcoin (BB: XBT) in quite some time. I’m going to simply re-present the same set-up I did in our original thesis on XBT way back in Feb-17 when it was printing $1K, not the $20K it reached…...

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Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels

Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels

Below I plot the price of the US long bond. The YTD sell-off in 2018 has taken us down to a critical, nearly 40-yr support level.  It is this very support that has defined the secular bull market in fixed…...

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How Historic Bubbles End

How Historic Bubbles End

The selling in Bitcoin has been relentless since its 12/17/17 peak.  Moreover, since then, its rallies have been listless and lacking in vigor. It all adds up to a major deviation in the road-map I had envisioned for the asset relative…...

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Has Bitcoin Stalled Out?

Has Bitcoin Stalled Out?

Our last piece on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT) was this post on 11/1/17. Included in it were two major conclusions: A major break-out in/around early Dec-17 was likely, akin to silver in Aug-79, where upside would begin to accelerate That upside had the chance to…...

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Near-Term Swing High For Bitcoin?

Near-Term Swing High For Bitcoin?

I last wrote about Bitcoin ( Bloomberg: XBT) on 9/16/17 in this post.  Therein we continued our ongoing comparison of the parallels b/t XBT’s cycle since its late 2008 introduction and silver during its halcyon cycle of 1970-1980, a conceptual framework…...

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Japan: Game On?

Japan: Game On?

I think the answer to this post’s title is a resounding ‘yes’. Having said that, I’ve been spilling ink on this site about Japan dating back to 2012 (there are 102 posts in the site’s N225 category), so it’s probably…...

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What is Bitcoin Discounting?

What is Bitcoin Discounting?

On 2/24/17 I presented the site’s first post on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT).  In it, I compared silver’s set-up over the 1971-1980 period to XBT’s since 2010.  In concluding I suggested the chart-based similarities of the two assets made XBT well-positioned to enjoy…...

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Macro Round-Up

Macro Round-Up

Let’s start with FX as it’s ultimately the most important driver when it comes to major inflection points and cycles in global macro. Here, as I noted in early August, the USD (via the DXY Index) continues to appear as if…...

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