Bitcoin (Echoes of Precious Metals in 1978?)

Bitcoin (Echoes of Precious Metals in 1978?)

As noted earlier when it was printing 1125, Bitcoin (XBT), now at 1175, has been in the process this week of breaking its former all-time weekly closing high of 1137 in Nov-13.   The move completes a consolidation process off that…...

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Closing the Loop on Japan & China

Closing the Loop on Japan & China

In the past few days I’ve detailed important inflection points in both Japan & China, at least as I perceived them. The only thing I didn’t do was throw up a ratio chart b/t the two region’s equity markets –…...

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Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Below I plot the ratio of the PCAC Index (Producer Price Index – All Commodities) vs. the USD Index (DXY) over time along with a ~43-year support line dating back to 1973. While not at support, the ratio is very…...

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Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

China’s equity market has been dead for the past year and it’s 9 mo hi/lo range now < 12%, about tied for lowest on record with similar prints in Mar-01 and Jul-14. Both of the above dates preceded robust expansions…...

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Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points

Below the ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is plotted in the top pane and the Nikkei alone in the bottom pane. In the top pane the ratio b/t the Yen and Nikkei has collapsed back down to support line…...

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Immortan Joe Activates U.S. Cyber War Rig, Moving America Beyond Just Financial Warfare with Russia

Immortan Joe Activates U.S. Cyber War Rig, Moving America Beyond Just Financial Warfare with Russia

Just the other day the deep state trotted out Immortan Joe Biden in an interview with Chuck Todd to let the world know it was planning a “covert” cyber attack on Russia and Putin for their alleged involvement in holding…

Gold Update

Gold Update

In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to rally in…...

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Break-Out in TED Spread Implies further CNY Depreciation, ECB Balance Sheet Expansion and EU Financials Weakness

Break-Out in TED Spread Implies further CNY Depreciation, ECB Balance Sheet Expansion and EU Financials Weakness

Dating back to the beginning of the GFC the TED spread – what amounts to cross-border, inter-bank borrowing/lending rates vs. risk free t-bills – has been an excellent proxy for rising financial system contagion and counter-party aversion, which, ultimately has manifested itself in…...

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Tactically, USDZAR Break-Down Favorable for Gold; Strategically, Still Believe 2011 Was Not "The" High for the PM's Secular Bull Run

Tactically, USDZAR Break-Down Favorable for Gold; Strategically, Still Believe 2011 Was Not “The” High for the PM’s Secular Bull Run

After more than a 2x move off its 2011 lows, the USD put in what appeared to be be a fairly pronounced, multi-year (if not secular) peak in Jan-16 against ZAR. Since then, USDZAR has trended lower, consolidating around that…...

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SHCOMP & CNY: 1993-1994 = 2015-2016?

SHCOMP & CNY: 1993-1994 = 2015-2016?

Much has been made about China’s need to devalue its currency vs. USD over the past year since the country abruptly nudged it immaterially lower in Aug-15. I honestly have no strong opinion or edge  re: likelihood that this does or…