Euro Likely to Drive Global Sentiment in Near-Term while Silver Hanging by a Thread above $26
On a weekly basis the Euro/Dollar cross finds itself nearing very critical support levels ~ a penny lower at ~1.215. This is the pair’s 50% Fib level b/t the 2000 low and 2008 high and also represents trend-line support (1) from…
Any Clues Provided by the USD’s Large Losses Today?
As of right now the USD is down ~110 bps on the day. Since March 2009 there have been 33 other occurrences of single-day USD declines of at least 100 bps. The last instance dates all the way back to…...
More Analysis Around the Potential for a Greek Exit / Drachma Reintroduction
A short while back we ran some detailed analysis on historical currency devaluation episodes and suggested that should Greece exit the Euro and reintroduce the Drachma, the time to buy Greek equities on a nominal basis would be at the time of…...
Yen Finally a Short Candidate? Nikkei Finally Going to Outperform?
The Yen sits at multi-decade highs against the USD. The ratio of the DJ Global Index vs. the Nikkei the same (i.e., the former has outperformed the latter for quite some time). Interestingly though, the Yen recently broke below trend-line…...
Potential for Longer-Term Dollar Rally Could Cause Small Caps to Under-Perform
In the chart below the ratio of the R2K vs. SPX is presented in black. As the line increases small caps outperform large caps and vice versa. This ratio is plotted against the USD in red, which is inverted. Together,…...
Greek Equities Just Rallied 18%, Now What (How to Play a Euro Exit, if it Happens)?
Last week, Greek equities managed a single week, 18% rally off their lows from the previous week. NBG was even more impressive, up 50%. Who could have predicted such a massive rebound? Prices could have. As the chart below suggests,…...
Airlines Successfully Clearing First Test of Resistance, More Upside in Play?
I know the airlines group is generally loathed. That said, in a post earlier this week it was noted that the group’s relative performance against the SPX has tracked the general decline in the USD for over a decade now and…...
Consolidation Breakdown in the Aussie $ Suggestive of More Risk Asset Downside
Last week the Aussie $ broke down from a multi-month consolidation pattern, the bottom of which was formed by line (1). After reclaiming the line earlier this week, it has once again broke below such support. Such break-downs from consolidation…...
Much Maligned Airlines About to Sustainably Outperform?
As of this week, the USD is breaking trend-line resistance dating back to the early part of the last decade at line (1) below. Ostensibly, this represents a trend change of some proportion – bull market beginnings, bear market endings. The…...