Accelerated Domestic Equity Upside (2013 Repeat?)

Accelerated Domestic Equity Upside (2013 Repeat?)

I generally try to avoid granular, shorter-term chart analysis, but I’m going to do just that in the one presented below because the analysis comes in the context of corroboratory evidence for a broader framework and thesis. Either way, note that…...

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EU Analog Update

EU Analog Update

It’s been two months since we laid out our EU/Portugal analog framework for the first time and six weeks since we last updated it. It now looks as follows (using  Portugal’s PSI20 Index; all analogs present the first year of…...

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EMs Approaching Long-Term Resistance, What Next?

EMs Approaching Long-Term Resistance, What Next?

The MSCI EM Index (MXEF) is approaching historical resistance dating back to its 2007 highs on a monthly closing basis below. On a weekly closing basis the set-up is similar, though the index has some remaining upside left. In the…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

It’s now been over a year since I originally presented the “mid-cycle pause” analog framework in this post.  In addition to crossing the one-year anniversary for introducing this framework, I haven’t had a new post on the topic for two months, so…...

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Tracking Regional EU Progress

Tracking Regional EU Progress

On 3/28 we noted that Portuguese equities, via the PSI20 Index, had coiled noticeably into what looked to be a bullish pattern that resembled the N225 in late 2012 and SHCOMP in spring/summer 2014 before their ensuing six month and…...

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Analog/Cycle Update

Analog/Cycle Update

The “pause” the market experienced from May-15 until later last year, whereby it traded in a tight sideways range for a little over a year without falling meaningfully, has but three historical precedents going back to the 1800s. Near identical…...

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EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

Emerging markets, via MXEF (MSCI EM Index), peaked in Oct-07 at ~1,300.  Today, some ~480 weeks and over nine years later, it stands at ~887, or 32% below its Oct-07 high.  Throughout the entirety of that elapsed time period MXEF…...

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See What Sticks

See What Sticks

I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start.  When discussed…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

I last updated my mid-cycle pause analog nearly two months ago, all the way back on 9/30/16. The truth of the matter has been that up until the past two weeks post-11/8 U.S. presidential election, that framework seemed all but…...

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Analog Update

Analog Update

I’ve been fooled many times by the market this year with respect to my expectation for runaway SPX strength, which, based on the suggestions provided by our mid-cycle pause analog, I thought would be imminently forthcoming post June, yet has…...

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