Tracking Regional EU Progress

Tracking Regional EU Progress

On 3/28 we noted that Portuguese equities, via the PSI20 Index, had coiled noticeably into what looked to be a bullish pattern that resembled the N225 in late 2012 and SHCOMP in spring/summer 2014 before their ensuing six month and…...

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Analog/Cycle Update

Analog/Cycle Update

The “pause” the market experienced from May-15 until later last year, whereby it traded in a tight sideways range for a little over a year without falling meaningfully, has but three historical precedents going back to the 1800s. Near identical…...

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EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

Emerging markets, via MXEF (MSCI EM Index), peaked in Oct-07 at ~1,300.  Today, some ~480 weeks and over nine years later, it stands at ~887, or 32% below its Oct-07 high.  Throughout the entirety of that elapsed time period MXEF…...

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See What Sticks

See What Sticks

I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start.  When discussed…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

I last updated my mid-cycle pause analog nearly two months ago, all the way back on 9/30/16. The truth of the matter has been that up until the past two weeks post-11/8 U.S. presidential election, that framework seemed all but…...

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Analog Update

Analog Update

I’ve been fooled many times by the market this year with respect to my expectation for runaway SPX strength, which, based on the suggestions provided by our mid-cycle pause analog, I thought would be imminently forthcoming post June, yet has…...

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Gold Update

Gold Update

In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to rally in…...

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US Equity Analog Update

US Equity Analog Update

I’ve been waiting for the market to inflect lower as the mid-cycle pause analogs have suggested it should start to do, rather than just print sideways as it’s done for the past two weeks, before updating them. With today’s ~100…...

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Crude Should Begin to Stabilize

Crude Should Begin to Stabilize

Below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude in the top pane and crude alone in the bottom pane. Over the past ~30 years the ratio b/t the Nikkei and crude has traveled in a downward sloping channel…

Tactically, USDZAR Break-Down Favorable for Gold; Strategically, Still Believe 2011 Was Not "The" High for the PM's Secular Bull Run

Tactically, USDZAR Break-Down Favorable for Gold; Strategically, Still Believe 2011 Was Not “The” High for the PM’s Secular Bull Run

After more than a 2x move off its 2011 lows, the USD put in what appeared to be be a fairly pronounced, multi-year (if not secular) peak in Jan-16 against ZAR. Since then, USDZAR has trended lower, consolidating around that…...

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