EM/SPX Decline Since 2010 Peak Among History's Worst Going Back 100 Years

EM/SPX Decline Since 2010 Peak Among History’s Worst Going Back 100 Years

Since its secular peak in Sep-2010, or ~9-yrs ago, the ratio of EM vs. SPX equities has fallen 64%.  This 9-yr RoC is plotted via the red line below.  The dotted black line highlights the worst 9-yr RoC print in…...

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Gold Miner Secular Bull Thesis Update: Major Upside Yet to Come

Gold Miner Secular Bull Thesis Update: Major Upside Yet to Come

I haven’t written about gold miners since Mar-2019.  I also haven’t updated a post from Oct-2018 that attempted to frame how a gold miners bull market might look if their low in that period was “structural” in nature. In that…...

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Massive Decline in Commodities vs. U.S. Equities Since 2008 Remains a Key Big-Picture Paradigm

Massive Decline in Commodities vs. U.S. Equities Since 2008 Remains a Key Big-Picture Paradigm

Depending on which index you use – SPX vs. DJI – commodities have fallen ~84%-87% vs. stocks since peaking in 2008, just as west-Texas crude touched ~$150 a barrel. I have discussed this reality repeatedly on the site over the…...

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Basic Material Depression

Basic Material Depression

Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Basic Materials Index (longer history than SPX Basic Materials Index). Its worst print in 2018 as it lapped the 2008 global commodity high was -63%.  That was the third-worst secular print…...

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Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom

Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom

With a recent piece in Bloomberg highlighting the Nasdaq’s post-4Q18 out-performance resurgence, I thought I’d revisit the topic. Recall that back in Jul-2018 I noted that the Nasdaq’s run of out-performance vs. the SPX was nearing its longest/largest duration/magnitude in history. In retrospect,…...

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Japan: Historically Cheap

Japan: Historically Cheap

I want to preface by stating I consider valuation analysis the least important part of process.  It’s usefulness for calling a major inflection point in any asset class is or approaches zero. However, as part of a broader analytical tool-kit,…...

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Updated EM Secular Bear Analog

Updated EM Secular Bear Analog

Here’s an updated look at the EM secular bear analog. Recent, plodding strength in EM is consistent with how both of the DJI’s secular bears acted in this area of their own respective secular bear cycles. Here’s the EM plot…...

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Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?

Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?

Had a repeat of 1937 been on tap, the market would have followed through on last week’s ~300 bps decline with further weakness.  It didn’t and instead, rebounded strongly.  So, back to the drawing board. As you are well aware, I…...

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FDR Redux?

FDR Redux?

Anchored off objective, definitive swing highs from Jul-33 and Feb-15 that went on to register one year “pauses”, we are approximately at that point in Aug-37 where the market, having made a significant retrace of its initial bear market decline…...

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Historic Rally Set to Take Place in USDJPY, Nikkei?

Historic Rally Set to Take Place in USDJPY, Nikkei?

Below I plot USDJPY on a monthly closing basis dating back to the 1950s.  Beyond the fact that the resistance is nearly 50 years old, it begins when Nixon abandons the gold standard in 1971 and runs atop the 1985 high that…