Textbook Semi Reversal

Textbook Semi Reversal

We’ve written extensively in the past 18 months about the bullish case for owning and over-weighting semiconductor stocks. Our last semi-specific piece was from March of this year.  In it, we noted that the group had experienced a major relative…...

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Semi Rally Now Faces Relative Resistance

Semi Rally Now Faces Relative Resistance

I began advocating semi longs and over-weights beginning in June of last year. Since then and after breaking out from the long-term flag pattern b/t lines (1) and (2), the ratio of the SOX vs. SPX is up ~26%, all…...

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Semis: Still More Room to Run

Semis: Still More Room to Run

On 7/11/16 we outlined the case for a material and sustained upside move in semis, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the broader market. We followed up that initial post with an update to the thesis on 8/10/16,…...

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Press Long Semi Bets

Press Long Semi Bets

A month ago we put together a semiconductor-related post that highlighted the likelihood of the group vastly out-performing the broader market. Since then both the SMH ETF and the SOX Index are up ~10% vs. the SPX.  Not a bad relative…

Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX

Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX

In the chart below I plot the SMH semiconductor ETF vs. SPY on a monthly closing basis. Note that it is breaking above line (1) and (2) resistance; line (1) dates back ~16 years and line (2) a decade.  This…...

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Semi Out-Performance Thesis Has Reached a Critical Juncture

Semi Out-Performance Thesis Has Reached a Critical Juncture

We’ve been vocal proponents of over-weighting semis vs. the broader market this year and thus far, that trade has paid off handsomely.  For instance, INTC, the group bellwether, has outperformed both the SPX and Nasdaq by 26% YTD. Having said…...

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INTC Breaking ~14 Yr Resistance, to Accelerate Outperformance of Semis

INTC Breaking ~14 Yr Resistance, to Accelerate Outperformance of Semis

In the chart below INTC is breaking above ~14 year resistance line (1). Assuming the week’s gains hold this likely implies that the semi group outperforms on an absolute and relative basis vs. the broader market in accelerated fashion over…...

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White Space

White Space

This post is not an impellent to purchase semi stocks – I’ve done that ad nauseam this year in the ‘Semiconductor’ category on the site. Instead, this post is an update to show that there is nothing but white space…...

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Semi Thesis Bears Fruit

Semi Thesis Bears Fruit

We have been extolling the virtues of the coming wave of potential semiconductor out-performance since July of last year. We were probably a touch early with that call as the relative performance of the group fell ~170 bps from the…...

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Semi Update

Semi Update

Wanted to provide a quick blurb on the semi space and note that it appears as if our recent bull case on the group is just now beginning to bear fruit. As it stands, YTD the SOX is now up…...

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