Semis Clear Key Historical Swing Resistance vs. SPX

Semis Clear Key Historical Swing Resistance vs. SPX

After failing here multiple times in 2017-2018, the ratio of the $SOX vs. $SPX has cleared key historical swing resistance vs. the $SPX dating back to the 1990s in recent weeks. Perhaps the ratio is overbought and in need of…...

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Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?

Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?

Had a repeat of 1937 been on tap, the market would have followed through on last week’s ~300 bps decline with further weakness.  It didn’t and instead, rebounded strongly.  So, back to the drawing board. As you are well aware, I…...

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Textbook Semi Reversal

Textbook Semi Reversal

We’ve written extensively in the past 18 months about the bullish case for owning and over-weighting semiconductor stocks. Our last semi-specific piece was from March of this year.  In it, we noted that the group had experienced a major relative…...

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Semi Rally Now Faces Relative Resistance

Semi Rally Now Faces Relative Resistance

I began advocating semi longs and over-weights beginning in June of last year. Since then and after breaking out from the long-term flag pattern b/t lines (1) and (2), the ratio of the SOX vs. SPX is up ~26%, all…...

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Semis: Still More Room to Run

Semis: Still More Room to Run

On 7/11/16 we outlined the case for a material and sustained upside move in semis, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the broader market. We followed up that initial post with an update to the thesis on 8/10/16,…...

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Press Long Semi Bets

Press Long Semi Bets

A month ago we put together a semiconductor-related post that highlighted the likelihood of the group vastly out-performing the broader market. Since then both the SMH ETF and the SOX Index are up ~10% vs. the SPX.  Not a bad relative…

Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX

Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX

In the chart below I plot the SMH semiconductor ETF vs. SPY on a monthly closing basis. Note that it is breaking above line (1) and (2) resistance; line (1) dates back ~16 years and line (2) a decade.  This…...

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Semi Out-Performance Thesis Has Reached a Critical Juncture

Semi Out-Performance Thesis Has Reached a Critical Juncture

We’ve been vocal proponents of over-weighting semis vs. the broader market this year and thus far, that trade has paid off handsomely.  For instance, INTC, the group bellwether, has outperformed both the SPX and Nasdaq by 26% YTD. Having said…...

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INTC Breaking ~14 Yr Resistance, to Accelerate Outperformance of Semis

INTC Breaking ~14 Yr Resistance, to Accelerate Outperformance of Semis

In the chart below INTC is breaking above ~14 year resistance line (1). Assuming the week’s gains hold this likely implies that the semi group outperforms on an absolute and relative basis vs. the broader market in accelerated fashion over…...

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White Space

White Space

This post is not an impellent to purchase semi stocks – I’ve done that ad nauseam this year in the ‘Semiconductor’ category on the site. Instead, this post is an update to show that there is nothing but white space…...

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