Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX
In the chart below I plot the SMH semiconductor ETF vs. SPY on a monthly closing basis. Note that it is breaking above line (1) and (2) resistance; line (1) dates back ~16 years and line (2) a decade. This…...
Semi Out-Performance Thesis Has Reached a Critical Juncture
We’ve been vocal proponents of over-weighting semis vs. the broader market this year and thus far, that trade has paid off handsomely. For instance, INTC, the group bellwether, has outperformed both the SPX and Nasdaq by 26% YTD. Having said…...
INTC Breaking ~14 Yr Resistance, to Accelerate Outperformance of Semis
In the chart below INTC is breaking above ~14 year resistance line (1). Assuming the week’s gains hold this likely implies that the semi group outperforms on an absolute and relative basis vs. the broader market in accelerated fashion over…...
Spread Trade Opportunity in Semis
The chart below plots the ratio of AMD vs. INTC. With AMD’s dramatic decline of late the ratio sits on long-term support line (1). A potential spread trade here would be to go long AMD and short INTC. The trade…...
Semis Likely Have More Relative & Absolute Downside Remaining
The chart below plots the ratio of the SOX vs. SPX. Note the ratio doesn’t reach intermediate-term support region (A) until ~3% lower. More material support doesn’t come into play until line (1), some ~15% lower. Additionally, the 52 week…...
PC Players Could Have Significantly More Downside
We recently had a post on INTC and noted it sat at quarter-century support. We also noted that relative to the XLK tech ETF, it was as cheap as it’s ever been. In that post we asked the following if…
INTC Sitting On Quarter-Century Support Dating Back to 1986; Ratio of INTC vs. XLK Near All-Time Low
The chart below shows that INTC sits at quarter-century support line (2) dating back to 1986 while it is caught in a long-term consolidation pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). At the same time, the ratio of INTC vs. the XLK…
INTC’s Recent Decline Has Taken it To Trend-Line Support from its 2009 Lows
Self-explanatory chart below – INTC is now sitting on trend-line support from its 2009 and 2011 lows. Can we expect a bounce here for INTC and with it the semiconductor space in general – both have been beaten up badly…