Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002.  Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...

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As an Industry, Info Tech's Size Reaches Historically High Levels

As an Industry, Info Tech’s Size Reaches Historically High Levels

In the chart below I plot the relative weightings of various SPX industry groups as a % of the entire index’s market cap over time. Right now, Info Tech constitutes nearly 22% of total SPX market cap. This was roughly…...

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Similar to Semis, Tech In General Now Staging a Significant Long-Term Relative Strength Break-Out

Similar to Semis, Tech In General Now Staging a Significant Long-Term Relative Strength Break-Out

In the chart below I plot the ratio of the DJ Tech Index vs. SPX. For 15 years it’s been stuck in a flag/consolidation pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). No more. As of this week it is breaking out…...

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Additional Mega-Cap Break-Out

Additional Mega-Cap Break-Out

EMC breaking above and out of a long-term flag/consolidation pattern this week b/t lines (1) and (2) on heels of a push by a large activist fund to break company up and spin off VMW. Similar to all the other…...

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Buying this Mega-Cap Tech Stock

Buying this Mega-Cap Tech Stock

Very much in-line with our ongoing semi and MSFT thesis, be a buyer of CSCO. In the chart below the stock is breaking above ~13-yr resistance line (1) dating back to the early 00s. The height of the pattern formed…...

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Our Single Favorite Long Idea Could Be on the Cusp of a Major, Transformative Move

Our Single Favorite Long Idea Could Be on the Cusp of a Major, Transformative Move

As I have belabored over and over – TIVO is my single favorite long idea. In the chart below I have inverted its price.  We’ve looked at this one so many times now it pays to trick our brain by…...

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13 Year, TSLA-Looking Ascending Triangle Pattern about to End for This Company

13 Year, TSLA-Looking Ascending Triangle Pattern about to End for This Company

We have been extolling the many virtues of TIVO’s chart since February of this year when we noted in a post that we found it: “…incredibly compelling…” Since that time the stock has done very little.  Moreover, we haven’t posted…...

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"Those Five-Year Highs...You Will Never, Ever In Your Life See Those Highs Again"

“Those Five-Year Highs…You Will Never, Ever In Your Life See Those Highs Again”

So said Jeff Macke in this piece on Yahoo Finance from Friday re: MSFT and its disappointing earnings results, which sent the stock down ~10% that day to ~$31. But, in looking at the long-term MSFT chart, does last Friday’s…...

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Chinese Stock Break-Out

Chinese Stock Break-Out

Big bust out of DATE below. So long as it’s not a head-fake, could portend a very big move higher. Also could be indicative of our broader thesis re: China being a bull. Lastly, would imagine that thematically, if there…...

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Market's Zero-Sum Nature Should Continue to Work in Favor of this Former High-Flying Industry

Market’s Zero-Sum Nature Should Continue to Work in Favor of this Former High-Flying Industry

In September of last year we had a post suggesting the market is thematic and that every dog tends to have its day in the sun and that old-line technology stocks were about to begin sun-bathing. That belief was largely…...

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