Thailand Attempting to Clear Nearly a Quarter-Century of Overhead Resistance

Thailand Attempting to Clear Nearly a Quarter-Century of Overhead Resistance

Below you’ll find Thailand’s SET Index attempting to clear nearly a quarter-century of over-head resistance this month, dating all the way back to Dec-93. The break-out above, assuming it holds through the remainder of the month, should dove-tail nicely with…...

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EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

Emerging markets, via MXEF (MSCI EM Index), peaked in Oct-07 at ~1,300.  Today, some ~480 weeks and over nine years later, it stands at ~887, or 32% below its Oct-07 high.  Throughout the entirety of that elapsed time period MXEF…...

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See What Sticks

See What Sticks

I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start.  When discussed…...

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Closing the Loop on Japan & China

Closing the Loop on Japan & China

In the past few days I’ve detailed important inflection points in both Japan & China, at least as I perceived them. The only thing I didn’t do was throw up a ratio chart b/t the two region’s equity markets –…...

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Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Below I plot the ratio of the PCAC Index (Producer Price Index – All Commodities) vs. the USD Index (DXY) over time along with a ~43-year support line dating back to 1973. While not at support, the ratio is very…...

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Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)

China’s equity market has been dead for the past year and it’s 9 mo hi/lo range now < 12%, about tied for lowest on record with similar prints in Mar-01 and Jul-14. Both of the above dates preceded robust expansions…...

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EM Relativity & The Potential for Improved Chinese GDP Growth

EM Relativity & The Potential for Improved Chinese GDP Growth

In top pane of the chart below we see that EEM has completed a bullish inverse H&S pattern recently; in the bottom pane the ratio of EEM vs. SPX just broke out of a ~five-year, steeply descending channel. Thus, consistent with a…...

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Break-Out in TED Spread Implies further CNY Depreciation, ECB Balance Sheet Expansion and EU Financials Weakness

Break-Out in TED Spread Implies further CNY Depreciation, ECB Balance Sheet Expansion and EU Financials Weakness

Dating back to the beginning of the GFC the TED spread – what amounts to cross-border, inter-bank borrowing/lending rates vs. risk free t-bills – has been an excellent proxy for rising financial system contagion and counter-party aversion, which, ultimately has manifested itself in…...

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Bovespa Break-Out

Bovespa Break-Out

In the chart below the Brazilian Bovespa is breaking above ~six year channel resistance dating back to 2010(!) on absolute basis in the top pane and is breaking out of a bullish descending wedge vs. the SPX in the lower pane,…...

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SHCOMP & CNY: 1993-1994 = 2015-2016?

SHCOMP & CNY: 1993-1994 = 2015-2016?

Much has been made about China’s need to devalue its currency vs. USD over the past year since the country abruptly nudged it immaterially lower in Aug-15. I honestly have no strong opinion or edge  re: likelihood that this does or…