Global Macro Round-Up

Global Macro Round-Up

FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue.  USDCNY is currently testing…...

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Turkish Equities Are Very Attractive

Turkish Equities Are Very Attractive

Below I graph the Istanbul 100 in local currency terms.  Note the 2013-2016 consolidation at new all-time highs, the break-out and rally through 2017 and then 2018’s big sell-off to retest the break-out zone as new support.  Atop this new…...

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A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Bovespa Total Return Index (IBOV) vs. the SPX Total Return Index.  The ratio appears to be staging a clean, noteworthy break above falling resistance that’s been in place since…...

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Approaching a Cyclical Low in EM Equities

Approaching a Cyclical Low in EM Equities

For some time I’ve maintained the view that since peaking in 2007, EM equities have been in a secular bear akin to the two witnessed on the DJI from 1906-1925 and 1966-1985.  That said, as secular bears go, such cycles…...

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LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Global Composites

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Global Composites

Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history.  Today, I switch gears and show ratios of major global composites vs. the SPX, mostly non-US ones.  This will help spell out where…...

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It Can Get Worse for China

It Can Get Worse for China

Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...

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Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes

Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes

As of month-end Sep-18, the USD (via DXY) had appreciated 21% over the trailing seven years while the ratio of EM equities vs. the SPX had declined 54% (seven years ago is where USD bottoms, commodities and EM/SPX generally peak).  This…...

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EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support

EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support

I plot the ratio of GFD’s EM Index vs. the SPX across history below. The ratio, including this week’s to-date ~290 bps decline, has us but a few %-points away from reaching 50-yr support This is a noteworthy development. The…...

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Instanbul 100 Index Has Reached 30-Yr Support in USD Terms

Instanbul 100 Index Has Reached 30-Yr Support in USD Terms

Below I plot Turkey’s Istanbull 100 Index in USD terms. Driven by the recent collapse in the TRY, the index has reached 30-yr support dating back to the mid-1980s. However, should this support break in what would likely be driven…...

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Relative Performance of EM vs. US Equities Nearing a Critical Juncture

Relative Performance of EM vs. US Equities Nearing a Critical Juncture

Below a simple chart: the ratio of the MSCI EM Index vs. SPX. In it you can see the ratio nearing a critical, 20-yr support line last reached in Sep-01 at a major corrective low (specifically the post 9/11 low)…...

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