Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support

Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support

Below, the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index sits atop nearly 85-yr support dating back to the early 1930s, specifically 1933. Even more specifically, the support begins in Apr-May-1933.  This is what happened in Apr-May-1933.  Support was last touched in late…...

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Global Macro Round-Up

Global Macro Round-Up

FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue.  USDCNY is currently testing…...

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Equities vs. Commodities - Something Still Has to Give

Equities vs. Commodities – Something Still Has to Give

Throughout 2018 I’ve covered the historically fast and deep decline in commodities vs. stocks over the decade that has ensued since the former peaked in 2008.   See here and here as background. I wanted to revisit the topic again just…...

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Speed & Ferocity of Commodity Decline vs. Stocks Since 2008 is Historic

Speed & Ferocity of Commodity Decline vs. Stocks Since 2008 is Historic

I’ve recently discussed the speed and ferocity of the relative decline in commodities vs. stocks since the former, via the CRB Index, peaked in 2008 vs. the DJI. At the ratio’s recent low in Jan-18 it had fallen > 81% vs….

Commodity Secular Bears: A Century's Worth of Historical Perspective

Commodity Secular Bears: A Century’s Worth of Historical Perspective

It’s Apr-18.  That means we’re at the 7-yr anniversary of the global commodity super-cycle peak of 2011.  This offers a neat and convenient time-based milestone upon which to assess the unrelenting carnage in the group since that peak and how it…...

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See What Sticks

See What Sticks

I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start.  When discussed…...

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Energy Commodities: The Juice Is Likely Worth the Squeeze

Energy Commodities: The Juice Is Likely Worth the Squeeze

Per some emails at the end of Sep that highlighted the increased potential for such a move, crude has decisively broken above multi-year resistance recently.  If you believe the WH/Fed/Russia feed-back loop theory – as I do – it’s not…...

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Gold Update

Gold Update

In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to rally in…...

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EM Relativity & The Potential for Improved Chinese GDP Growth

EM Relativity & The Potential for Improved Chinese GDP Growth

In top pane of the chart below we see that EEM has completed a bullish inverse H&S pattern recently; in the bottom pane the ratio of EEM vs. SPX just broke out of a ~five-year, steeply descending channel. Thus, consistent with a…...

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CRB Index Back to 45-Yr Resistance as Syrian Cease-Fire Falls Apart

CRB Index Back to 45-Yr Resistance as Syrian Cease-Fire Falls Apart

Until the CRB crashed through it in late 2015/early 2016, line (1) in the chart below had held as support for over 40 years dating back to the early/mid 1970s, or the area where the hyperbolic ramp of commodity prices…...

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