Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Crude: 1980-1990...2008-2018

Crude: 1980-1990…2008-2018

Recall this mid-May post on the relationship b/t crude and gold.  Therein, I also spoke about crude on its own, as follows: “What’s also interesting about crude since 2008 is how closely its cycle resembles the period from 1980-summer-1987.” I presented…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Crude-Gold Relationship at an Important Juncture

Crude-Gold Relationship at an Important Juncture

In early 2016 amid the global commodity/EM crash the ratio of crude oil vs. gold reached a historic, ~135-yr low, per the chart below. However, per the falling resistance in the monthly chart above, as well as the more detailed…

Oilfield Services Attractive on Numerous Relative Fronts

Oilfield Services Attractive on Numerous Relative Fronts

One could spend a few hours cycling through charts of various US equity industries, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the SPX, and find very little to get excited about. They simply all look the same – nearly…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
See What Sticks

See What Sticks

I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start.  When discussed…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Immortan Joe Activates U.S. Cyber War Rig, Moving America Beyond Just Financial Warfare with Russia

Immortan Joe Activates U.S. Cyber War Rig, Moving America Beyond Just Financial Warfare with Russia

Just the other day the deep state trotted out Immortan Joe Biden in an interview with Chuck Todd to let the world know it was planning a “covert” cyber attack on Russia and Putin for their alleged involvement in holding…

Energy Commodities: The Juice Is Likely Worth the Squeeze

Energy Commodities: The Juice Is Likely Worth the Squeeze

Per some emails at the end of Sep that highlighted the increased potential for such a move, crude has decisively broken above multi-year resistance recently.  If you believe the WH/Fed/Russia feed-back loop theory – as I do – it’s not…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Crude Should Begin to Stabilize

Crude Should Begin to Stabilize

Below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude in the top pane and crude alone in the bottom pane. Over the past ~30 years the ratio b/t the Nikkei and crude has traveled in a downward sloping channel…

Cross-Asset Macro Relationships Signal Crude Bottom

Cross-Asset Macro Relationships Signal Crude Bottom

In the chart below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude. This ratio has traded in a downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) since the 80s. The ratio hit channel resistance line (1) in Jan-16 for…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
How the Fed Abdicated its Independence to White House Geopolitical Strategy on Russia For Nearly Two Years

How the Fed Abdicated its Independence to White House Geopolitical Strategy on Russia For Nearly Two Years

In the chart below I plot crude, the Russian Ruble (RUB) and OPEC production. From 2012 through mid-2014 all three print sideways. However, to the day beginning on 7/29/14, crude and RUB begin to collapse while OPEC production soars. Why such…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register