Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?

Twilight on the Horizon for the Global Bull Market?

Our mid-cycle pause analog framework has served us exceedingly well for two years since its original construction in this March 2016 post.  And while no framework will ever be perfect, its accuracy has nonetheless been exceptional in divining the future over…...

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Probability of US Recession Set to Rise Over the Coming Year, Perhaps Materially

Probability of US Recession Set to Rise Over the Coming Year, Perhaps Materially

Bloomberg publishes a  ‘Probability of US Recession Index’ (PROBRECN) based on a machine learning model developed by University of Oregon professor Jeremy Piger.  Here’s how Bloomberg describes the index and more detail can be found here: In effect, based on…...

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Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support

Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support

Something on the macro front that’s beginning to get some attention is the US yield curve (2s10s), but I think it’s being discussed and analyzed absent proper context. What’s being emphasized is its collapse over the past year.  This is true…...

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