SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

2017 marked the SPX Total Return Index’s 9th consecutive annual gain. Absent a strange aberration in the early 1800s where gains continued to get posted (I say aberration because price data doesn’t seem to confirm it; thus, some type of…...

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Crude: 1980-1990...2008-2018

Crude: 1980-1990…2008-2018

Recall this mid-May post on the relationship b/t crude and gold.  Therein, I also spoke about crude on its own, as follows: “What’s also interesting about crude since 2008 is how closely its cycle resembles the period from 1980-summer-1987.” I presented…...

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Additional Evidence Suggesting a Historic Top in Place for Defense Stocks

Additional Evidence Suggesting a Historic Top in Place for Defense Stocks

In March I began making the case that defense stocks were in the process of putting an important top in place, which you can read about here. However, at that time I don’t think I fully appreciated the exact nature…...

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Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Multi-Year Cyclical Peak for EM Equities Likely in Place

Before we dig into this post’s declarative title, let’s revisit the genesis EM work that got us to this point today. Specifically, I mean the 1/2/17 post that proclaimed EM equities, though likely mired in an ongoing secular bear, were nonetheless about…...

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Commodity Secular Bears: A Century's Worth of Historical Perspective

Commodity Secular Bears: A Century’s Worth of Historical Perspective

It’s Apr-18.  That means we’re at the 7-yr anniversary of the global commodity super-cycle peak of 2011.  This offers a neat and convenient time-based milestone upon which to assess the unrelenting carnage in the group since that peak and how it…...

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Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

An analysis of nearly 100 years of history compellingly suggests that transportation equities are in the early stages of a major, secular under-performance bear cycle vs. the broader market. When I say “transportation equities” I’m referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Average…...

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Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP

Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP

I reviewed China in a Dec-16 post, focusing on what at the time seemed to be a building case for out-sized moves in USDCNY and the SHCOMP and largely predicated on how the ratio chart b/t these two items seemed to…...

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EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

EM Secular Bear Remains, but Large Cyclical Rally Likely in Early Innings

Emerging markets, via MXEF (MSCI EM Index), peaked in Oct-07 at ~1,300.  Today, some ~480 weeks and over nine years later, it stands at ~887, or 32% below its Oct-07 high.  Throughout the entirety of that elapsed time period MXEF…...

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Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn

Below I plot the ratio of the PCAC Index (Producer Price Index – All Commodities) vs. the USD Index (DXY) over time along with a ~43-year support line dating back to 1973. While not at support, the ratio is very…...

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A Look at Historical Secular Bears

A Look at Historical Secular Bears

Consider the very long-term DJI chart below with quarterly price data extending back to the late 19th century. In it you’ll find annotations of the index’s three historical secular bear markets from the early 20th century (1905-1925), off the pre…...

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