Hello world!
It’s been a full two years and two months since my last entry and it’s good to be back. As we thrown on our #45 jersey and get back in the saddle let’s ease into things with a simple update…...
EM/SPX Decline Since 2010 Peak Among History’s Worst Going Back 100 Years
Since its secular peak in Sep-2010, or ~9-yrs ago, the ratio of EM vs. SPX equities has fallen 64%. This 9-yr RoC is plotted via the red line below. The dotted black line highlights the worst 9-yr RoC print in…...
Massive Decline in Commodities vs. U.S. Equities Since 2008 Remains a Key Big-Picture Paradigm
Depending on which index you use – SPX vs. DJI – commodities have fallen ~84%-87% vs. stocks since peaking in 2008, just as west-Texas crude touched ~$150 a barrel. I have discussed this reality repeatedly on the site over the…...
Japan: Historically Cheap
I want to preface by stating I consider valuation analysis the least important part of process. It’s usefulness for calling a major inflection point in any asset class is or approaches zero. However, as part of a broader analytical tool-kit,…...
FDR Redux?
Anchored off objective, definitive swing highs from Jul-33 and Feb-15 that went on to register one year “pauses”, we are approximately at that point in Aug-37 where the market, having made a significant retrace of its initial bear market decline…...
Global Commodities Hang by the Thread of 85-yr Support
Below, the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index sits atop nearly 85-yr support dating back to the early 1930s, specifically 1933. Even more specifically, the support begins in Apr-May-1933. This is what happened in Apr-May-1933. Support was last touched in late…...
Historic Rally Set to Take Place in USDJPY, Nikkei?
Below I plot USDJPY on a monthly closing basis dating back to the 1950s. Beyond the fact that the resistance is nearly 50 years old, it begins when Nixon abandons the gold standard in 1971 and runs atop the 1985 high that…
200 Years of History Holds in 2018 as the SPX Total Return Index Fails to Register a 10th Consecutive Annual Gain
In July of last year I noted in this post that the SPX Total Return Index had posted a 9th consecutive annual gain in 2017 for only the fifth time in nearly 200 years of data. I emphasized that a…...
Approaching a Cyclical Low in EM Equities
For some time I’ve maintained the view that since peaking in 2007, EM equities have been in a secular bear akin to the two witnessed on the DJI from 1906-1925 and 1966-1985. That said, as secular bears go, such cycles…...
US Equity Bear Approaching Confirmation Point
Below, note that the SPX has been flirting with cycle trend-line support off the 2009 lows for the past few weeks at inset (1). With yesterday’s massive reversal off the Trump-Xi “truce” spike on Monday, we have now definitively broken…...