Hand-in-Glove

Hand-in-Glove

As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history.  The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but when the ratio makes big directional moves, it…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?

Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?

The Nikkei’s prominent Mar-Nov-12 peak and subsequent corrective/consolidation (A) looks an awful lot like the the recent Jan-18-current version (B), which I compare in the chart below. Via the analog, note the similarities b/t the respective periods’ corrections and consolidations.  Also note…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support

EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support

I plot the ratio of GFD’s EM Index vs. the SPX across history below. The ratio, including this week’s to-date ~290 bps decline, has us but a few %-points away from reaching 50-yr support This is a noteworthy development. The…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Gold/Silver Ratio - Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver.  August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing.  It shows that the bear cycle…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Relative Performance of EM vs. US Equities Nearing a Critical Juncture

Relative Performance of EM vs. US Equities Nearing a Critical Juncture

Below a simple chart: the ratio of the MSCI EM Index vs. SPX. In it you can see the ratio nearing a critical, 20-yr support line last reached in Sep-01 at a major corrective low (specifically the post 9/11 low)…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
JGB Yields Breaking Out of Massive Multi-Century Descending Wedge Pattern

JGB Yields Breaking Out of Massive Multi-Century Descending Wedge Pattern

Laugh all you want about the merits of multi-century technical analysis (patterns are patterns), and below I attempt just that on 10-yr JGB yields, which are breaking out of a massive descending wedge pattern dating back to the late 1800s…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s

Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s

In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad.  Further, a similar pattern formed in the ~1915-1930 time period, with a…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

2017 marked the SPX Total Return Index’s 9th consecutive annual gain. Absent a strange aberration in the early 1800s where gains continued to get posted (I say aberration because actual price appreciation during this nine year stretch was virtually 0%…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002.  Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register