EU Analog Update

EU Analog Update

It’s been two months since we laid out our EU/Portugal analog framework for the first time and six weeks since we last updated it. It now looks as follows (using  Portugal’s PSI20 Index; all analogs present the first year of…...

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EMs Approaching Long-Term Resistance, What Next?

EMs Approaching Long-Term Resistance, What Next?

The MSCI EM Index (MXEF) is approaching historical resistance dating back to its 2007 highs on a monthly closing basis below. On a weekly closing basis the set-up is similar, though the index has some remaining upside left. In the…...

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EU Big Picture: Reverberations From 1992 & the Maastricht Treaty

EU Big Picture: Reverberations From 1992 & the Maastricht Treaty

Headed into the BREXIT vote on 6/23/16 we began to discuss the ratio of the STOXX600, Europe’s equivalent of the SPX, relative to the SPX itself.  Posts on the topic, both before and after the BREXIT vote, can be found…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

It’s now been over a year since I originally presented the “mid-cycle pause” analog framework in this post.  In addition to crossing the one-year anniversary for introducing this framework, I haven’t had a new post on the topic for two months, so…...

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Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP

Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP

I reviewed China in a Dec-16 post, focusing on what at the time seemed to be a building case for out-sized moves in USDCNY and the SHCOMP and largely predicated on how the ratio chart b/t these two items seemed to…...

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Tracking Regional EU Progress

Tracking Regional EU Progress

On 3/28 we noted that Portuguese equities, via the PSI20 Index, had coiled noticeably into what looked to be a bullish pattern that resembled the N225 in late 2012 and SHCOMP in spring/summer 2014 before their ensuing six month and…...

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Un-Hedged Japan Attempting to Clear Multi-Decade, Secular Bear Resistance

Un-Hedged Japan Attempting to Clear Multi-Decade, Secular Bear Resistance

Below we plot EWJ over the past ~20 years of its history. EWJ is the Japan/N-225 tracker but is currency un-hedged unlike DXJ, which hedges FX.  So, being long EWJ is being long Japanese stocks in JPY-terms. Thus, if EWJ…...

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Portuguese Equities Coiled

Portuguese Equities Coiled

The PSI20 Index is wound very tightly at the moment (noticeable on the bar or close inset), similar to the N225 in 2012 and SHCOMP in 2014 before their respectively large rallies. Sovereign 10 yr yields also at l-t resistance…...

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Overbought?

Overbought?

Hearing a lot about how over-bought US equities are lately. Much of the clamor is related to the relentless sprint higher since 11/8/16 and the election of Trump. However, if one can accept the assumption that the cycle underway is…

Analog/Cycle Update

Analog/Cycle Update

The “pause” the market experienced from May-15 until later last year, whereby it traded in a tight sideways range for a little over a year without falling meaningfully, has but three historical precedents going back to the 1800s. Near identical…...

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