A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Bovespa Total Return Index (IBOV) vs. the SPX Total Return Index.  The ratio appears to be staging a clean, noteworthy break above falling resistance that’s been in place since…...

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LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Global Composites

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Global Composites

Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history.  Today, I switch gears and show ratios of major global composites vs. the SPX, mostly non-US ones.  This will help spell out where…...

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US Equity Bear Approaching Confirmation Point

US Equity Bear Approaching Confirmation Point

Below, note that the SPX has been flirting with cycle trend-line support off the 2009 lows for the past few weeks at inset (1).  With yesterday’s massive reversal off the Trump-Xi “truce” spike on Monday, we have now definitively broken…...

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Equities vs. Commodities - Something Still Has to Give

Equities vs. Commodities – Something Still Has to Give

Throughout 2018 I’ve covered the historically fast and deep decline in commodities vs. stocks over the decade that has ensued since the former peaked in 2008.   See here and here as background. I wanted to revisit the topic again just…...

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It Can Get Worse for China

It Can Get Worse for China

Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...

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History's Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles

History’s Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles

It’s one thing to analyze trough-peak equity cycles, indexing to 100% off a major low; it’s another to study them peak-peak, indexing to 100% off a major high, following both the ensuing bear market and the subsequent rebound and bull…...

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Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

It’s been 117 months since the Dow bottomed on a monthly closing basis in March 2009 at ~7K.  Since then it’s rallied ~260%. There are essentially only four precedents for this magnitude of rally over a trailing 117 month period…...

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Where's Waldo?

Where’s Waldo?

In this May-18 post I discussed the significant implications – for both equities and bonds – of the bearish pattern that had emerged in the ratio b/t the SPX and 30-yr rates. In my view, that pattern was highly analogous…...

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Hand-in-Glove

Hand-in-Glove

As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history.  The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but when the ratio makes big directional moves, it…...

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Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?

Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?

The Nikkei’s prominent Mar-Nov-12 peak and subsequent corrective/consolidation (A) looks an awful lot like the the recent Jan-18-current version (B), which I compare in the chart below. Via the analog, note the similarities b/t the respective periods’ corrections and consolidations.  Also note…...

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