Global Macro Round-Up
FX drives everything, so ongoing weakness in the USD vs. CNY is one of the most fascinating things going on in the world right now, especially given US and China trade talks are specifically addressing this issue. USDCNY is currently testing…...
Turkish Equities Are Very Attractive
Below I graph the Istanbul 100 in local currency terms. Note the 2013-2016 consolidation at new all-time highs, the break-out and rally through 2017 and then 2018’s big sell-off to retest the break-out zone as new support. Atop this new…...
200 Years of History Holds in 2018 as the SPX Total Return Index Fails to Register a 10th Consecutive Annual Gain
In July of last year I noted in this post that the SPX Total Return Index had posted a 9th consecutive annual gain in 2017 for only the fifth time in nearly 200 years of data. I emphasized that a…...
A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage
In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Bovespa Total Return Index (IBOV) vs. the SPX Total Return Index. The ratio appears to be staging a clean, noteworthy break above falling resistance that’s been in place since…...
LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Global Composites
Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history. Today, I switch gears and show ratios of major global composites vs. the SPX, mostly non-US ones. This will help spell out where…...
US Equity Bear Approaching Confirmation Point
Below, note that the SPX has been flirting with cycle trend-line support off the 2009 lows for the past few weeks at inset (1). With yesterday’s massive reversal off the Trump-Xi “truce” spike on Monday, we have now definitively broken…...
Equities vs. Commodities – Something Still Has to Give
Throughout 2018 I’ve covered the historically fast and deep decline in commodities vs. stocks over the decade that has ensued since the former peaked in 2008. See here and here as background. I wanted to revisit the topic again just…...
It Can Get Worse for China
Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...
History’s Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles
It’s one thing to analyze trough-peak equity cycles, indexing to 100% off a major low; it’s another to study them peak-peak, indexing to 100% off a major high, following both the ensuing bear market and the subsequent rebound and bull…...
Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents
It’s been 117 months since the Dow bottomed on a monthly closing basis in March 2009 at ~7K. Since then it’s rallied ~260%. There are essentially only four precedents for this magnitude of rally over a trailing 117 month period…...