Equities vs. Commodities - Something Still Has to Give

Equities vs. Commodities – Something Still Has to Give

Throughout 2018 I’ve covered the historically fast and deep decline in commodities vs. stocks over the decade that has ensued since the former peaked in 2008.   See here and here as background. I wanted to revisit the topic again just…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
It Can Get Worse for China

It Can Get Worse for China

Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
History's Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles

History’s Biggest Peak-to-Peak Equity Cycles

It’s one thing to analyze trough-peak equity cycles, indexing to 100% off a major low; it’s another to study them peak-peak, indexing to 100% off a major high, following both the ensuing bear market and the subsequent rebound and bull…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

It’s been 117 months since the Dow bottomed on a monthly closing basis in March 2009 at ~7K.  Since then it’s rallied ~260%. There are essentially only four precedents for this magnitude of rally over a trailing 117 month period…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Where's Waldo?

Where’s Waldo?

In this May-18 post I discussed the significant implications – for both equities and bonds – of the bearish pattern that had emerged in the ratio b/t the SPX and 30-yr rates. In my view, that pattern was highly analogous…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Hand-in-Glove

Hand-in-Glove

As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history.  The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but when the ratio makes big directional moves, it…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?

Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?

The Nikkei’s prominent Mar-Nov-12 peak and subsequent corrective/consolidation (A) looks an awful lot like the the recent Jan-18-current version (B), which I compare in the chart below. Via the analog, note the similarities b/t the respective periods’ corrections and consolidations.  Also note…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support

EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support

I plot the ratio of GFD’s EM Index vs. the SPX across history below. The ratio, including this week’s to-date ~290 bps decline, has us but a few %-points away from reaching 50-yr support This is a noteworthy development. The…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Gold/Silver Ratio - Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver.  August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing.  It shows that the bear cycle…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register