EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support

EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support

I plot the ratio of GFD’s EM Index vs. the SPX across history below. The ratio, including this week’s to-date ~290 bps decline, has us but a few %-points away from reaching 50-yr support This is a noteworthy development. The…...

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Gold/Silver Ratio - Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications

Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver.  August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing.  It shows that the bear cycle…...

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Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...

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Relative Performance of EM vs. US Equities Nearing a Critical Juncture

Relative Performance of EM vs. US Equities Nearing a Critical Juncture

Below a simple chart: the ratio of the MSCI EM Index vs. SPX. In it you can see the ratio nearing a critical, 20-yr support line last reached in Sep-01 at a major corrective low (specifically the post 9/11 low)…...

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JGB Yields Breaking Out of Massive Multi-Century Descending Wedge Pattern

JGB Yields Breaking Out of Massive Multi-Century Descending Wedge Pattern

Laugh all you want about the merits of multi-century technical analysis (patterns are patterns), and below I attempt just that on 10-yr JGB yields, which are breaking out of a massive descending wedge pattern dating back to the late 1800s…...

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Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s

Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s

In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad.  Further, a similar pattern formed in the ~1915-1930 time period, with a…...

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SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

2017 marked the SPX Total Return Index’s 9th consecutive annual gain. Absent a strange aberration in the early 1800s where gains continued to get posted (I say aberration because actual price appreciation during this nine year stretch was virtually 0%…...

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Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002.  Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...

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Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment

Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment

Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Oil Equipment & Services Index along with the index itself.  A decade is a logical period for look-back analysis and doubles as the anniversary of crude’s 2008 all-time high print of ~$145.  I’ve…...

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Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...

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