Where’s Waldo?
In this May-18 post I discussed the significant implications – for both equities and bonds – of the bearish pattern that had emerged in the ratio b/t the SPX and 30-yr rates. In my view, that pattern was highly analogous…...
Hand-in-Glove
As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history. The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but when the ratio makes big directional moves, it…...
Nikkei Consolidation Finally Complete?
The Nikkei’s prominent Mar-Nov-12 peak and subsequent corrective/consolidation (A) looks an awful lot like the the recent Jan-18-current version (B), which I compare in the chart below. Via the analog, note the similarities b/t the respective periods’ corrections and consolidations. Also note…...
EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support
I plot the ratio of GFD’s EM Index vs. the SPX across history below. The ratio, including this week’s to-date ~290 bps decline, has us but a few %-points away from reaching 50-yr support This is a noteworthy development. The…...
Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications
Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver. August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing. It shows that the bear cycle…...
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)
Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...
Relative Performance of EM vs. US Equities Nearing a Critical Juncture
Below a simple chart: the ratio of the MSCI EM Index vs. SPX. In it you can see the ratio nearing a critical, 20-yr support line last reached in Sep-01 at a major corrective low (specifically the post 9/11 low)…...
JGB Yields Breaking Out of Massive Multi-Century Descending Wedge Pattern
Laugh all you want about the merits of multi-century technical analysis (patterns are patterns), and below I attempt just that on 10-yr JGB yields, which are breaking out of a massive descending wedge pattern dating back to the late 1800s…...
Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s
In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad. Further, a similar pattern formed in the ~1915-1930 time period, with a…...
SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018
2017 marked the SPX Total Return Index’s 9th consecutive annual gain. Absent a strange aberration in the early 1800s where gains continued to get posted (I say aberration because actual price appreciation during this nine year stretch was virtually 0%…...