A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage
In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Bovespa Total Return Index (IBOV) vs. the SPX Total Return Index. The ratio appears to be staging a clean, noteworthy break above falling resistance that’s been in place since…...
It Can Get Worse for China
Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...
BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low
Below I plot the trailing two month (60 days given weekend trading) price VOL [(max close-min close)/average close] of BTC. Historically, VOL always bottomed b/t 10%-15% whereas the current print of 8.9% is the tightest on record dating back to…...
Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents
It’s been 117 months since the Dow bottomed on a monthly closing basis in March 2009 at ~7K. Since then it’s rallied ~260%. There are essentially only four precedents for this magnitude of rally over a trailing 117 month period…...
NYSE Margin Debt Levels Historically Elevated
Below I plot the ratio of NYSE margin debt / NYSE equity market cap back to the early 1930s. Data is sourced from GFD. As global equities peaked in Jan/Feb-18 the ratio hit 2.9%, a ~90-yr high not seen since…...
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)
Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...
US Equity Cycles: One Chart to Rule them All?
Below I update a ~120-yr chart of the DJI with its associated linear regression plot and two standard deviation channels first revealed in this post in Jul-17. Red = extreme over-valuation and secular sells; light red = over-valuation; light green = under-valuation; green…...
Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History
Below I plot the 2-yr RoC in the ratio of SPX Consumer Staples vs. the SPX itself dating back to the 1920s. The current –29% is essentially the second-worst print in history, tied with the 1929-1930 period preceding and in…...
Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History
The SPX’s YoY comp went positive for the first time in Oct-09 as the world emerged from the GFC. That was 103 months ago. Rounding it down to an even 100 months, as of Apr-17 the index’s YoY had been…
Ag Commodity Complex Historically Oversold
Like nearly all of the commodity complex ex crude, the Ag portion of the space [via the S&P GSCI Ag Index: (SPGSAGD)] put in an all-time high bubble top in Mar-11 with the the YoY on the SPGSAGD first entering negative…...