A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

A Rare and Compelling EM Equity Long Amid Widespread Global Asset Class Carnage

In the first chart below I plot the ratio of the Bovespa Total Return Index (IBOV) vs. the SPX Total Return Index.  The ratio appears to be staging a clean, noteworthy break above falling resistance that’s been in place since…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
It Can Get Worse for China

It Can Get Worse for China

Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low

BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low

Below I plot the trailing two month (60 days given weekend trading) price VOL [(max close-min close)/average close] of BTC. Historically, VOL always bottomed b/t 10%-15% whereas the current print of 8.9% is the tightest on record dating back to…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

It’s been 117 months since the Dow bottomed on a monthly closing basis in March 2009 at ~7K.  Since then it’s rallied ~260%. There are essentially only four precedents for this magnitude of rally over a trailing 117 month period…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
NYSE Margin Debt Levels Historically Elevated

NYSE Margin Debt Levels Historically Elevated

Below I plot the ratio of NYSE margin debt / NYSE equity market cap back to the early 1930s.  Data is sourced from GFD. As global equities peaked in Jan/Feb-18 the ratio hit 2.9%, a ~90-yr high not seen since…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
US Equity Cycles: One Chart to Rule them All?

US Equity Cycles: One Chart to Rule them All?

Below I update a ~120-yr chart of the DJI with its associated linear regression plot and two standard deviation channels first revealed in this post in Jul-17. Red = extreme over-valuation and secular sells; light red = over-valuation; light green = under-valuation; green…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History

Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History

Below I plot the 2-yr RoC in the ratio of SPX Consumer Staples vs. the SPX itself dating back to the 1920s. The current –29% is essentially the second-worst print in history, tied with the 1929-1930 period preceding and in…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History

Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History

The SPX’s YoY comp went positive for the first time in Oct-09 as the world emerged from the GFC.  That was 103 months ago. Rounding it down to an even 100 months, as of Apr-17 the index’s YoY had been…

Ag Commodity Complex Historically Oversold

Ag Commodity Complex Historically Oversold

Like nearly all of the commodity complex ex crude, the Ag portion of the space [via the S&P GSCI Ag Index: (SPGSAGD)] put in an all-time high bubble top in Mar-11 with the the YoY on the SPGSAGD first entering negative…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register