Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History

Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History

Below I plot the 2-yr RoC in the ratio of SPX Consumer Staples vs. the SPX itself dating back to the 1920s. The current –29% is essentially the second-worst print in history, tied with the 1929-1930 period preceding and in…...

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Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History

Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History

The SPX’s YoY comp went positive for the first time in Oct-09 as the world emerged from the GFC.  That was 103 months ago. Rounding it down to an even 100 months, as of Apr-17 the index’s YoY had been…

Ag Commodity Complex Historically Oversold

Ag Commodity Complex Historically Oversold

Like nearly all of the commodity complex ex crude, the Ag portion of the space [via the S&P GSCI Ag Index: (SPGSAGD)] put in an all-time high bubble top in Mar-11 with the the YoY on the SPGSAGD first entering negative…...

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Tightest One-Year Hi-Lo Range in Silver on Record

Tightest One-Year Hi-Lo Range in Silver on Record

Using monthly prices, the spread b/t silver’s hi/lo price over the past 12 months now stands at ~7.3%. That’s the tightest (smallest) spread in history dating back to the post-Bretton Woods era that began in 1971 when Nixon abandoned the…...

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Pinpointing a Bottom in Bitcoin

Pinpointing a Bottom in Bitcoin

With my oft-repeated suggestion that XBT will reach $1 million in 2018 looking more comical by the day, I thought it appropriate to revisit the asset with a focus not on trying to predict upside, but on attempting to pinpoint a near-term…...

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PM VOL Compression

PM VOL Compression

Below I plot gold and the spread b/t its 48 month high-low price range, which now stands at < 22%. Note that historically such a low spread is quite uncommon. In fact, there are only three other environments  in which…...

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Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels

Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels

Below I plot the price of the US long bond. The YTD sell-off in 2018 has taken us down to a critical, nearly 40-yr support level.  It is this very support that has defined the secular bull market in fixed…...

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US Equities' Historically Extended RSI

US Equities’ Historically Extended RSI

As of the week of 12/15/17 the DJI’s weekly RSI logged a print of 85.6 (have chosen DJI instead of SPX because former has more available chart history).  It’s continued to print > 85 in each of the ensuing three…...

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Near-Term Swing High For Bitcoin?

Near-Term Swing High For Bitcoin?

I last wrote about Bitcoin ( Bloomberg: XBT) on 9/16/17 in this post.  Therein we continued our ongoing comparison of the parallels b/t XBT’s cycle since its late 2008 introduction and silver during its halcyon cycle of 1970-1980, a conceptual framework…...

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One-Way

One-Way

Although the nadir for the DJI during the GFC came in Mar-09, the index’s YoY didn’t turn positive until Oct-09. That was 95 months ago. Remarkably, the index’s YoY has been positive in 85 of those ensuing 95 months, or 89%…...

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