Overbought?

Overbought?

Hearing a lot about how over-bought US equities are lately. Much of the clamor is related to the relentless sprint higher since 11/8/16 and the election of Trump. However, if one can accept the assumption that the cycle underway is…

Silver Shorts?

Silver Shorts?

As of last week silver managed its ninth consecutive weekly gain. The last time it closed with a weekly loss was during the week of Xmas, or 12/23/16. Over the course of its 9 week streak it rallied ~17%, closing…

2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year

2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year

On 8/15/12 I penned a piece that suggested the DJI had a 90%+ (91% to be exact) probability of being higher one year out with a median expected gain of ~15%. The nuts and bolts of that summer-2012 analysis and…...

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Gold Now in a Sustained, Structural Bull Market; On Average, History Suggests ~175% Incremental Upside

Gold Now in a Sustained, Structural Bull Market; On Average, History Suggests ~175% Incremental Upside

The last time we discussed gold on the site was a few weeks back in this post; therein we suggested a break-down in USDZAR was at hand and that should history hold, it would help propel and/or coincide with additional…

Recent Renewal in Gold Upside Fits Our Historically Bullish Framework but Metal Faces Major Near-Term Test

Recent Renewal in Gold Upside Fits Our Historically Bullish Framework but Metal Faces Major Near-Term Test

On 1/18/16 I declared in this post that gold’s cycle low was in and only the path, duration and magnitude of any upside move was in question.  Prior to that declaration, we emphasized over and over during the latter parts of…...

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Early 2016's Out-Performance in Gold vs. Other Commodities Signals New Bull Market for the Metal

Early 2016’s Out-Performance in Gold vs. Other Commodities Signals New Bull Market for the Metal

In this 2/23/16 post we asked whether or not a sustained upside move in gold could continue to occur without other commodities in general also participating. In short, history suggested the answer to that question was yes. What we did not do in…...

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This Has Only Happened Prior to the Plaza Accord & the Global Real Estate Bubble

This Has Only Happened Prior to the Plaza Accord & the Global Real Estate Bubble

As of Dec-15 the spread between the trailing 56 month (an objective reference point: gold peaked 56 months ago on a monthly closing basis in Aug-11) rates of change in the USD and gold reached in excess of 67% (i.e.,…...

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Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally

Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally

I increasingly struggle to find bearish historical precedents that line up with the market’s tone, tenor and structure over the past ~year. Though I was able to nail the collapse that came in Aug-15 right before it occurred and correctly saw…...

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Gold's 99.8th Percentile Event Last Week Confirms New, Sustained Bull Market

Gold’s 99.8th Percentile Event Last Week Confirms New, Sustained Bull Market

On 12/17/15 in this post we began stressing the likelihood of a new, emerging macro thematic positing the likelihood of a favorable divergence in gold-specific fortunes vs. other commodities moving forward. At the time of that original post the ratio of gold vs…....

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Gold's Cycle Low Is In; The Only Question is the Path, Duration & Magnitude of Upside that Follows

Gold’s Cycle Low Is In; The Only Question is the Path, Duration & Magnitude of Upside that Follows

On 9/29/15 I put together a detailed post on what appeared to be the an imminent break-out b/t 30-yr (TYX) and 10-yr (TNX) U.S. treasury rates. While I understand most think of the curve steepening vs. flattening in terms of 10s2s,…...

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