It Can Get Worse for China

It Can Get Worse for China

Many of the research services I subscribe to were suggesting with increasing frequency as the summer wore on, and now fall, that I needed to own Chinese equities given how oversold they’ve become. However, in my view, they’re still nowhere…...

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BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low

BTC Price VOL at an All-Time Low

Below I plot the trailing two month (60 days given weekend trading) price VOL [(max close-min close)/average close] of BTC. Historically, VOL always bottomed b/t 10%-15% whereas the current print of 8.9% is the tightest on record dating back to…...

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Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents

It’s been 117 months since the Dow bottomed on a monthly closing basis in March 2009 at ~7K.  Since then it’s rallied ~260%. There are essentially only four precedents for this magnitude of rally over a trailing 117 month period…...

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NYSE Margin Debt Levels Historically Elevated

NYSE Margin Debt Levels Historically Elevated

Below I plot the ratio of NYSE margin debt / NYSE equity market cap back to the early 1930s.  Data is sourced from GFD. As global equities peaked in Jan/Feb-18 the ratio hit 2.9%, a ~90-yr high not seen since…...

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Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)

Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...

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US Equity Cycles: One Chart to Rule them All?

US Equity Cycles: One Chart to Rule them All?

Below I update a ~120-yr chart of the DJI with its associated linear regression plot and two standard deviation channels first revealed in this post in Jul-17. Red = extreme over-valuation and secular sells; light red = over-valuation; light green = under-valuation; green…...

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Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History

Recent Relative Performance of Consumer Staples Among Worst in History

Below I plot the 2-yr RoC in the ratio of SPX Consumer Staples vs. the SPX itself dating back to the 1920s. The current –29% is essentially the second-worst print in history, tied with the 1929-1930 period preceding and in…...

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Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History

Persistence of Bullish S&P500 Trend Has But One Precedent in 220 Years of History

The SPX’s YoY comp went positive for the first time in Oct-09 as the world emerged from the GFC.  That was 103 months ago. Rounding it down to an even 100 months, as of Apr-17 the index’s YoY had been…

Ag Commodity Complex Historically Oversold

Ag Commodity Complex Historically Oversold

Like nearly all of the commodity complex ex crude, the Ag portion of the space [via the S&P GSCI Ag Index: (SPGSAGD)] put in an all-time high bubble top in Mar-11 with the the YoY on the SPGSAGD first entering negative…...

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Tightest One-Year Hi-Lo Range in Silver on Record

Tightest One-Year Hi-Lo Range in Silver on Record

Using monthly prices, the spread b/t silver’s hi/lo price over the past 12 months now stands at ~7.3%. That’s the tightest (smallest) spread in history dating back to the post-Bretton Woods era that began in 1971 when Nixon abandoned the…...

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