Tightest One-Year Hi-Lo Range in Silver on Record
Using monthly prices, the spread b/t silver’s hi/lo price over the past 12 months now stands at ~7.3%. That’s the tightest (smallest) spread in history dating back to the post-Bretton Woods era that began in 1971 when Nixon abandoned the…...
Pinpointing a Bottom in Bitcoin
With my oft-repeated suggestion that XBT will reach $1 million in 2018 looking more comical by the day, I thought it appropriate to revisit the asset with a focus not on trying to predict upside, but on attempting to pinpoint a near-term…...
PM VOL Compression
Below I plot gold and the spread b/t its 48 month high-low price range, which now stands at < 22%. Note that historically such a low spread is quite uncommon. In fact, there are only three other environments in which…...
Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels
Below I plot the price of the US long bond. The YTD sell-off in 2018 has taken us down to a critical, nearly 40-yr support level. It is this very support that has defined the secular bull market in fixed…...
US Equities’ Historically Extended RSI
As of the week of 12/15/17 the DJI’s weekly RSI logged a print of 85.6 (have chosen DJI instead of SPX because former has more available chart history). It’s continued to print > 85 in each of the ensuing three…...
Near-Term Swing High For Bitcoin?
I last wrote about Bitcoin ( Bloomberg: XBT) on 9/16/17 in this post. Therein we continued our ongoing comparison of the parallels b/t XBT’s cycle since its late 2008 introduction and silver during its halcyon cycle of 1970-1980, a conceptual framework…...
One-Way
Although the nadir for the DJI during the GFC came in Mar-09, the index’s YoY didn’t turn positive until Oct-09. That was 95 months ago. Remarkably, the index’s YoY has been positive in 85 of those ensuing 95 months, or 89%…...
Cycle Peak Mosaic Building Efforts Continue
In my last big picture update piece here we talked about the difficulty at this stage of the game of trying to prognosticate when or at what price level this US equity bull cycle will flame out. We have our…...
Is Peripheral Europe’s Permafrost Finally Thawing?
One of the better analytical pieces and frameworks published on this site since 2012 was this piece from 7/2/2013 that questioned the timeliness of Barron’s renewed calls for a Chinese credit crisis by pointing out that since the SHCOMP had…...
Overbought?
Hearing a lot about how over-bought US equities are lately. Much of the clamor is related to the relentless sprint higher since 11/8/16 and the election of Trump. However, if one can accept the assumption that the cycle underway is…