Silver Shorts?
As of last week silver managed its ninth consecutive weekly gain. The last time it closed with a weekly loss was during the week of Xmas, or 12/23/16. Over the course of its 9 week streak it rallied ~17%, closing…
2012 Redux: Surging US Price Momentum Suggests 90%+ Chance the DJI Will Be Higher in a Year
On 8/15/12 I penned a piece that suggested the DJI had a 90%+ (91% to be exact) probability of being higher one year out with a median expected gain of ~15%. The nuts and bolts of that summer-2012 analysis and…...
This Has Only Happened Prior to the Plaza Accord & the Global Real Estate Bubble
As of Dec-15 the spread between the trailing 56 month (an objective reference point: gold peaked 56 months ago on a monthly closing basis in Aug-11) rates of change in the USD and gold reached in excess of 67% (i.e.,…...
Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally
I increasingly struggle to find bearish historical precedents that line up with the market’s tone, tenor and structure over the past ~year. Though I was able to nail the collapse that came in Aug-15 right before it occurred and correctly saw…...
Gold’s 99.8th Percentile Event Last Week Confirms New, Sustained Bull Market
On 12/17/15 in this post we began stressing the likelihood of a new, emerging macro thematic positing the likelihood of a favorable divergence in gold-specific fortunes vs. other commodities moving forward. At the time of that original post the ratio of gold vs…....
Gold’s Cycle Low Is In; The Only Question is the Path, Duration & Magnitude of Upside that Follows
On 9/29/15 I put together a detailed post on what appeared to be the an imminent break-out b/t 30-yr (TYX) and 10-yr (TNX) U.S. treasury rates. While I understand most think of the curve steepening vs. flattening in terms of 10s2s,…...
Bucking Seasonals, The SPX Printed Two Consecutive Down Days of at Least 150 bps in December
Last Thurs and Fri the SPX printed two consecutive down days of at least 150 bps, reversing the pre and day of FOMC meeting ramp, as our data suggested would occur. Though our data was confirmed with the subsequent weakness,…...