SPX Action Day Before and Day of FOMC Indicative of Structurally Weak Market
On Tues and Wed, or the day before and the day of the FOMC decision on monetary policy, the SPX rose by at least 100 bps. That’s incredibly rare and has happened only five other times in modern history as…...
SPX Close > 2,050 in October Would Be Bullish: Part 2
Last week we put some work together detailing why a close above 2,050 for the SPX in October would be bullish for forward returns across six months and up to a year. That logic was straightforward enough that we won’t recapitulate…...
Duration & Size Matter: Part 2 (And Why the Revenant May Truly be Dead)
Nearly 18 months ago, on 5/9/14, we noted the SPX had gone 652 days and had rallied 72% without at least a 10% correction, with that stretch dating back to the summer/fall 2011 mini-crash lows. We went on to note…...
SPX Close > 2,050 in October Would be Bullish
As of today 2,050 is the SPX’s 12 mo MA. August’s sell-off and September’s continuing remnants of VOL from the previous month resulted in the SPX closing below its 12 mo MA for those two consecutive months after having closed…...
NYSE New High Data May Be Signaling Equities within Striking Distance of Durable Low
While our call for an August “shock” was spot on, thus far our calls for additional downside, here and here, have failed to materialize. That doesn’t mean the 8/24 shock low won’t be re-tested. Volatile down-drafts such as that seen…...
Gold Inching Ever Closer into what Will Likely Be a Major, Multi-Year Low
We’ve been through PMs fairly extensively as of late (this is our third on the topic in a month vs. eight total in the previous two years). Our most recent work on the space has generally been time-focused. Specifically, we’ve…
Characteristics of PMs Today Increasingly Resemble that of SSEC in 2013, DJI in 1942
All the way back in July 2013 we began building a case for being long the SSEC even as Barron’s was then calling for the re-emergence of a crisis in the region. Arguably the most important pillar of our long thesis…...
Echoes of 1914
A month ago on 7/23 we used this post to highlight the ominously fascinating cycle similarities b/t the DJI circa 1904-1914 and emerging markets, via EEM, 2004-current; we used the chart below and steps (1)-(10) to set those similarities off in deep…...
Crude’s Technicals Point To Additional Downside
In the chart below I present crude on a monthly HLC and closing basis. Note that as of August crude has broken back into a long-term, upward sloping channel formed by line (1) and (2). This development is incredibly important…...
The Case for a Major SPX Top is Growing
I’ve found the trading pattern on the SPX from Oct-14 until now to be highly reminiscent of that from its topping process from Oct-99 through Aug-00. The process from Oct-99 through Aug-00 is best described by a major pivot low and immediate, strong…...