![Recipe for a Major Blow-Off?](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/2019-12-17-Nikkei-Silver-Nikkei-30-Yr-Secular-Bear-Market-Analog-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Recipe for a Major Blow-Off?
Here’s an updated look at the 30-yr secular bear market analog showing the Nikkei’s path since its all-time high of ~40K in 1989 vs. 30-yr bears traced out by the same index 1920-1950 and silver 1980-2010. As I’ve said repeatedly,…...
![Massive Decline in Commodities vs. U.S. Equities Since 2008 Remains a Key Big-Picture Paradigm](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-09-23-Ratio-CRB-vs.-DJI-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Massive Decline in Commodities vs. U.S. Equities Since 2008 Remains a Key Big-Picture Paradigm
Depending on which index you use – SPX vs. DJI – commodities have fallen ~84%-87% vs. stocks since peaking in 2008, just as west-Texas crude touched ~$150 a barrel. I have discussed this reality repeatedly on the site over the…...
![Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-03-15-DJI-1920s-1950s-vs.-SOX-2000-Current-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?
Had a repeat of 1937 been on tap, the market would have followed through on last week’s ~300 bps decline with further weakness. It didn’t and instead, rebounded strongly. So, back to the drawing board. As you are well aware, I…...
![FDR Redux?](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/2019-03-08-DJI-1933-1938-vs.-2015-Current-Analog-Daily.png?resize=150%2C150)
FDR Redux?
Anchored off objective, definitive swing highs from Jul-33 and Feb-15 that went on to register one year “pauses”, we are approximately at that point in Aug-37 where the market, having made a significant retrace of its initial bear market decline…...
![Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/2018-11-04-DJI-Trailing-117-Month-RoC-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents
It’s been 117 months since the Dow bottomed on a monthly closing basis in March 2009 at ~7K. Since then it’s rallied ~260%. There are essentially only four precedents for this magnitude of rally over a trailing 117 month period…...
![Gold/Silver Ratio - Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/2018-09-01-Ratio-Gold-vs.-Silver-Closing-HLC-Monthly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications
Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver. August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing. It shows that the bear cycle…...
![Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/2018-08-18-DJI-Major-Tops-Percentage-Above-52-Wk-Avg-Price-Table-Weekly.png?resize=150%2C150)
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)
Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...
![Excellent Place to Lay Down Longs for a Trip to 30K?](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/2018-06-08-DJI-Resistance-Since-2011-Daily.png?resize=150%2C150)
Excellent Place to Lay Down Longs for a Trip to 30K?
In the context of this week’s cycle-based work here and here, consider the following more granular and technical aspects of how the thesis presented therein (DJI –> ~30K –> Aug/Sep-18) could unfold. Specifically, note that the market’s Nov-17 parabolic blow-off happened to occur as…...
![US Equity Cycles: One Chart to Rule them All?](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/2018-06-07-DJI-w-Historical-Linear-Regression-Channel-2018-Inset-Daily.png?resize=150%2C150)
US Equity Cycles: One Chart to Rule them All?
Below I update a ~120-yr chart of the DJI with its associated linear regression plot and two standard deviation channels first revealed in this post in Jul-17. Red = extreme over-valuation and secular sells; light red = over-valuation; light green = under-valuation; green…...
![Winter is Coming](https://i0.wp.com/www.onlypricesmatter.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/2018-06-06-DJI-1929-1987-2018-Daily-1.png?resize=150%2C150)
Winter is Coming
Having failed to put a new and final lower low in place in late May as I had expected, the DJI appears to have broken out of its falling resistance this week, potentially – and finally – fulfilling the end…...