If the Dow Closes above 12,982 this Week, Data Back to 1896 Says There’s a 91% Chance it Will Be Higher in a Year by 15% (Median Gain, 63 Examples)

Pretty incredible analysis and statistically in-line with what I’ve noted recently – when the market’s price momentum, as gauged by its one year RoC / YoY is surging as much as it currently is (+22% this week) it typically means you’re in…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register

What can We Learn by Comparing the SPX Sell-off From April’s Highs to Every other Major Top in History?

A few recent posts have focused on the 1900-1950 period where the 100%/50% rule was the norm – 100% cyclical rally, 50% cyclical bear.  Here’s a chart showing that. The point was to highlight that period as a good template…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register

Yet Another Data Point Registered with Today’s Gains (Should they Hold) that Suggests the Potential for a Major Move Higher over the Near or Intermediate-Term

This week the market was down each of the days Monday-Thursday and erased all of those losses on Friday with its large rally. This happened on 7/13 as well and has now happened only six times in history.  We noted…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register
If They Can't Sell Hard & Fast Right Here, Stocks Are Likely Coiling For a Big Move Higher

If They Can’t Sell Hard & Fast Right Here, Stocks Are Likely Coiling For a Big Move Higher

We’ve posted repeatedly about the need for stocks, given the historical limitations of cyclical bull market rallies within secular bears, to sell hard and fast at this juncture if they are going to fall at all. We did that here,…

Additional Analysis of Historical Cycles Dating Back to 1896 Suggests a Near-Term Inflection Point for Markets

Wanted to dive further into the historical analysis of cyclical bull/bear cycles within secular bears. As we noted just a few days ago, the rally from the March 2009 lows appears extended in both magnitude and duration at this point…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register

If This Remains a Secular Bear, Cycle Analysis Dating Back to 1896 Suggests the Current Cyclical Rally is Extended in Magnitude and Duration

First chart below presents the DJIA on a weekly basis dating back to 1896 for pure context. The chart below is more important as it zooms in on the 1896-1950 period. This period was not unlike that experienced over the…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register

1973/1974 the Closest Parallels to 2012/2013?

Before we can even consider this question one needs to have a heart-to-heart with themselves on one major issue… Do you believe domestic equities are still in a secular bear market? If you do, continue on.  If not, there’s going…...

Member only content: Login to view or Register