Analog Update
Per my email this morning about only giving this market a day or two worth of leash before giving up and turning structurally bearish, the analogs call for an insane launch higher, basically begining in and around this week. As…...
CFNAI Suggests the Fed Has Destroyed the Market’s Discounting Mechanism Over Past Decade with Pay-Back Being Increased Volatility
Stepping away from the “only prices matter” meme for a second to highlight some more work on the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI). Historically, when the rolling 3 month average of this index hits and/or dips below a reading…...
Updating Our Downside Targets
Our assumed downside target of ~1,360-1,370 is quickly approaching per line (1) support and analog support against the 1988-1989 4th/5th consecutive annual gain moves. We would begin to slowly raise net long positions in equity indices as this level approaches…...
Analog Update: More Near-Term Downside Likely but Cyclical Outlook Remains Bullish
We’re updating our 4th and 5th consecutive annual gain analog in the charts below. First chart displays those years in history that have represented 4th consecutive annual gains. As we have often noted, including in our 10/24 analog update, if…...
Revisiting Our Cycle Work Dating Back to 1896 for Perspective on the Rally off the March 2009 Lows
For some background on this topic check out this post here. A couple of months have passed since that original post so we thought it worthwhile to update the analog charts to see what has or hasn’t changed in terms of…...
Market Has Been up 11 of Past 12 Months; This Has Now Happened 26x Dating Back to 1896
Incredibly (i.e., in the context of the perma-doom and gloom that exists), the Dow has been up 11 of the past 12 months as of September’s close. This has now happened 26x through history dating back to 1896. What typically…...
More Thoughts on This Being the Market’s 4th Consecutive Up Year
I apologize but I don’t have a ton of incremental stuff to think about today. I re-present the 4th straight up year analog below to include today’s action in the Dow. As I noted earlier this week, numerous 4th straight…...
Historically, What’s 4Q Looked Like When the Market Has Been Up a 4th Consecutive Year, YTD through 3Q?
This is a relevant question – with the Dow up 11% YTD through 3Q, it appears as if the index will register a 4th consecutive annual gain. To answer that question, see the analog below. In it, I’ve looked at…...
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Negative for Six Straight Months for First Time Since September 2007; What’s it Mean?
With its reading of -0.87 in August, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) has now printed in negative territory for the six consecutive months. This is the first time we’ve had six consecutive negative prints on the index since September…...
The Dow Has Never Had Four Consecutive Annual Gains in a Secular Bear Market / Are Central Banks Breaking Historical Market Cycles?
Do you believe this is a secular bear market? If you do, take note that the Dow has never registered four consecutive annual gains in a secular bear market – EVER. And yet, it was up in each of 2009,…