Generational Semiconductor Bull Market: Potential for a 2X Move in the SOX From Current Levels

Generational Semiconductor Bull Market: Potential for a 2X Move in the SOX From Current Levels

In late December 2013 I penned a piece titled “Semis On Deck”.  In fairly detailed manner I explained why I thought semis were about to begin a material and sustained out-performance run vs. the broader market, a thesis I initially roughed out in…...

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Basic Material Depression

Basic Material Depression

Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Basic Materials Index (longer history than SPX Basic Materials Index). Its worst print in 2018 as it lapped the 2008 global commodity high was -63%.  That was the third-worst secular print…...

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Mustang Sally

Mustang Sally

Below I plot the long-term ratio of F vs. the SPX.  It sits at 70-yr support dating back to late 1957! Support was last touched in late 1981 and was briefly and sharply breached during the 2008-2009 GFC,when many auto…...

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Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom

Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom

With a recent piece in Bloomberg highlighting the Nasdaq’s post-4Q18 out-performance resurgence, I thought I’d revisit the topic. Recall that back in Jul-2018 I noted that the Nasdaq’s run of out-performance vs. the SPX was nearing its longest/largest duration/magnitude in history. In retrospect,…...

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Japan: Historically Cheap

Japan: Historically Cheap

I want to preface by stating I consider valuation analysis the least important part of process.  It’s usefulness for calling a major inflection point in any asset class is or approaches zero. However, as part of a broader analytical tool-kit,…...

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Updated EM Secular Bear Analog

Updated EM Secular Bear Analog

Here’s an updated look at the EM secular bear analog. Recent, plodding strength in EM is consistent with how both of the DJI’s secular bears acted in this area of their own respective secular bear cycles. Here’s the EM plot…...

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Platinum Currently Sits Atop Nearly 50 Years of Support

Platinum Currently Sits Atop Nearly 50 Years of Support

Below we find that platinum (futures) sits atop support dating back to the early 1970s, or when Nixon abandoned the gold standard.  That’s nearly 50 years of support. The last time this support was reached in the late 1990s. Thus, on…...

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EURUSD Price VOL Approaching Historic Lows

EURUSD Price VOL Approaching Historic Lows

Using standard (20, 2) inputs, last week’s Bollinger Band (BB) print on EURUSD stood at 2.3%, up mildly from the recent low of 2.2% posted in early March. That’s the tightest reading in over 40 years.  Not since 1977 when the BB printed…...

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Global Commodities Continue to Flirt with 85-Yr Support

Global Commodities Continue to Flirt with 85-Yr Support

I pointed this out at the beginning of March but wanted to do the same as we head toward the end of the month because I find it so important: Global commodity prices, via the Thomson Reuters Core Commodity Index…

Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?

Goldilocks 1950s-1960s Emerging as Most Likely Outcome for US Stocks?

Had a repeat of 1937 been on tap, the market would have followed through on last week’s ~300 bps decline with further weakness.  It didn’t and instead, rebounded strongly.  So, back to the drawing board. As you are well aware, I…...

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