Trust: How Low Can you Go?

Trust: How Low Can you Go?

Occasionally I venture over to the Pew Research Center and review some of their polling data and related commentary covering a myriad of different issues of concern to US citizens.  Numerous Pew polls go back many decades, making some of…...

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Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning

An analysis of nearly 100 years of history compellingly suggests that transportation equities are in the early stages of a major, secular under-performance bear cycle vs. the broader market. When I say “transportation equities” I’m referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Average…...

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Near-Term Swing High For Bitcoin?

Near-Term Swing High For Bitcoin?

I last wrote about Bitcoin ( Bloomberg: XBT) on 9/16/17 in this post.  Therein we continued our ongoing comparison of the parallels b/t XBT’s cycle since its late 2008 introduction and silver during its halcyon cycle of 1970-1980, a conceptual framework…...

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Japan: Game On?

Japan: Game On?

I think the answer to this post’s title is a resounding ‘yes’. Having said that, I’ve been spilling ink on this site about Japan dating back to 2012 (there are 102 posts in the site’s N225 category), so it’s probably…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

It’s been nearly three months since I last updated my big-picture US equity cycle analogs.  Let’s take the time to refresh them now. Here’s our mid-cycle pause analog.  Price continues to track closely to our historical comparisons, albeit below the “average” levels they imply…...

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What is Bitcoin Discounting?

What is Bitcoin Discounting?

On 2/24/17 I presented the site’s first post on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT).  In it, I compared silver’s set-up over the 1971-1980 period to XBT’s since 2010.  In concluding I suggested the chart-based similarities of the two assets made XBT well-positioned to enjoy…...

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One-Way

One-Way

Although the nadir for the DJI during the GFC came in Mar-09, the index’s YoY didn’t turn positive until Oct-09. That was 95 months ago. Remarkably, the index’s YoY has been positive in 85 of those ensuing 95 months, or 89%…...

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Multiple Years of USD Work Suggests Another Secular Peak in Place

Multiple Years of USD Work Suggests Another Secular Peak in Place

Back in March-2015 we highlighted the chart below when the USD was approaching ~100 and noted that at this price level the currency was nearing major long-term resistance line (1) and that it had spent very little time above that resistance…...

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Cycle Peak Mosaic Building Efforts Continue

Cycle Peak Mosaic Building Efforts Continue

In my last big picture update piece here we talked about the difficulty at this stage of the game of trying to prognosticate when or at what price level this US equity bull cycle will flame out. We have our…...

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Big Picture Update

Big Picture Update

Our highest conviction thematics within our big picture thinking remain the following: US equities: mid-cycle pause framework EU equities: major periphery rally underway, per N225 (2012) and SHCOMP (2014) set-ups EM equities: large cyclical rally underway up to 2007 highs…...

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