SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018

2017 marked the SPX Total Return Index’s 9th consecutive annual gain. Absent a strange aberration in the early 1800s where gains continued to get posted (I say aberration because price data doesn’t seem to confirm it; thus, some type of…...

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Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History

The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002.  Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...

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Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment

Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment

Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Oil Equipment & Services Index along with the index itself.  A decade is a logical period for look-back analysis and doubles as the anniversary of crude’s 2008 all-time high print of ~$145.  I’ve…...

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Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event

In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...

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Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds

Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds

“They have no choice, they’re either going to make the trades fair…and if it’s not fixed we’re not going to deal with these countries.” – President Trump at G7 Those sound like fightin’ words to me and they were largely directed…...

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Winter is Coming

Winter is Coming

Having failed to put a new and final lower low in place in late May as I had expected, the DJI appears to have broken out of its falling resistance this week, potentially – and finally – fulfilling the end…...

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Speed & Ferocity of Commodity Decline vs. Stocks Since 2008 is Historic

Speed & Ferocity of Commodity Decline vs. Stocks Since 2008 is Historic

I’ve recently discussed the speed and ferocity of the relative decline in commodities vs. stocks since the former, via the CRB Index, peaked in 2008 vs. the DJI. At the ratio’s recent low in Jan-18 it had fallen > 81% vs….

Saudi Arabia Faces 13-Yr Falling Resistance

Saudi Arabia Faces 13-Yr Falling Resistance

Below I plot the Tadawul Index – Saudi Arabia’s main equity index. Note that it has rallied up to test falling resistance off its 2006 and 2014 swing highs and that the former occurred 623 weeks ago. One of the…

Incorporating Tactical Precision into our Big-Picture Silver Work

Incorporating Tactical Precision into our Big-Picture Silver Work

I’ve recently written extensively about why I believe silver is poised for a window of out-sized upside this year, if even it comes in a brief window of time like 1987’s 65% rally, which occurred in two months. This thesis is largely…

Crude-Gold Relationship at an Important Juncture

Crude-Gold Relationship at an Important Juncture

In early 2016 amid the global commodity/EM crash the ratio of crude oil vs. gold reached a historic, ~135-yr low, per the chart below. However, per the falling resistance in the monthly chart above, as well as the more detailed…